Estimation of Tourism Demand Equation for Turkey: The Influences of Economic, Social and Political Factors

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 15 - 30, 01.11.2019

Onur Bayram , Abdurrahman Korkmaz

Öz

This study aims at revealing whether there is
any influence of socio-demographic characteristics of tourists, which are
proxied by levels of income and education, groups of age, and purposes of the
visit, on tourism demand for Turkey. Dataset of the paper includes 24 countries
representing 77.6% of total tourist arrivals to Turkey throughout period 2006-2017.
The numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographic characteristics
are regressed on word of mouth effect (i.e. number of tourist arrivals in
previous year), level of income, and levels of substitute and relative prices
as well as transportation cost and terrorism variables via Bias Corrected Least
Squares Dummy Variable estimator. Empirical findings of the paper demonstrate
that the numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographic
characteristics give different responses to changes in the above-mentioned
explanatory variables in magnitude, but sign of the responses are the same.
Therefore, it is concluded that there is no need to take socio-demographic
characteristics of tourists into consideration while Turkish tourism policies
are designed. Besides, it is found out that the most important determinants of
international tourism demand to Turkey are the word of mouth effect and the level
of substitute price so as to imply that Turkey should follow customer-oriented
and competitive tourism policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism Demand, Panel Data Analysis, Kiviet Estimator

Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Öz

Bu çalışma, turistlerin gelir ve eğitim düzeyleri, yaş grupları ve geliş
amaçları ile temsil edilen sosyo-demografik özelliklerinin Türkiye’ye yönelik
turizm talebi üzerinde herhangi bir etkisinin olup olmadığını ortaya koymayı
amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmanın veri seti 2006-2017 döneminde Türkiye’ye gelen turistlerin
%77.6’sını temsil eden 24 ülkeyi kapsamaktadır. Sosyo-demografik
karakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayıları, Yanlılığı
Düzeltilmiş Kukla Değişkenli En Küçük Kareler tahmincisi yardımıyla ağızdan
kulağa etki (önceki yılda gelen turist sayısı), gelir düzeyi, nispi ve ikame
fiyat düzeyleri yanında ulaşım maliyetleri ve terörizm değişkenleri üzerinden
tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları, sosyo-demografik
karakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayılarının, yukarıda
sıralanan açıklayıcı değişkenlerde meydana gelen değişimlere farklı dereceden tepkiler
verdiğini ancak bu tepkilerin yönünün aynı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla
Türk turizm politikalarının tasarımında turistlerin sosyo-demografik özelliklerinin
dikkate alınmasına yer olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’ye
yönelik uluslararası turizm talebinin en önemli belirleyicilerinin, tüketici
odaklı ve rekabetçi turizm politikaları izlenmesi gerektiğini ima eder şekilde ağızdan
kulağa etki ile ikame fiyat düzeyi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm Talebi, Panel Veri Analizi, Kiviet Tahmincisi

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