China-US Relations in the Context of the Thucydides Trap: An Analysis of National Security Strategies

Öz

This article analyzed the rivalry between China and the United States of America (USA), which has recently been a topic of discussion in the International Relations literature, through Graham Allison's concept of the Thucydides Trap. In his study in 2017, Allison stated that the superpower in the international system perceives another rising power as a threat to itself and declares war on it. Thus, Allison claimed that states have been at war in twelve of these situations sixteen times in the last five hundred years and conceptualized this situation as the Thucydides Trap. With the concept of the Thucydides Trap, Allison re-discussed the balance of power, hegemony, conflict and security theories in the discipline of International Relations and predicted that the US, the superpower of the international system, would also fall into the Thucydides Trap in the future and declare war on China, the rising power. In this context, this study examined the national security strategy documents of China and the US and evaluated the extent to which the rivalry between the two countries will develop according to Allison's concept of the Thucydides Trap, as well as Allison's prediction of a future war between China and the US.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Thucydides Trap
• China
• United States of America
• National Security Strategies
• Realism

Tukidides Tuzağı Bağlamında Çin-ABD İlişkileri: Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejileri Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Öz

Bu makalede, son dönemde Uluslararası İlişkiler literatüründe tartışma konusu olan Çin ile Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) arasındaki rekabet, Graham Allison'ın Tukidides Tuzağı kavramı üzerinden incelenmiştir. 2017 yılındaki çalışmasında, uluslararası sistemdeki süper gücün, yükselmekte olan diğer bir gücü kendisine tehdit olarak algılayıp ona savaş ilan ettiğini söyleyen Allison, son beş yüz yılda on altı kez karşılaşılan bu durumun on ikisinde devletlerin savaştıklarını belirtmiştir ve bu durumu Tukidides Tuzağı olarak kavramsallaştırmıştır. Tukidides Tuzağı kavramıyla birlikte Uluslararası İlişkiler disiplinindeki güç dengesi, hegemonya, çatışma ve güvenlik teorilerini yeniden tartışmaya açan Allison, uluslararası sistemin süper gücü olan ABD'nin de gelecekte Tukidides Tuzağı'na düşerek yükselen güç olan Çin'e savaş ilan edeceği öngörüsünde bulunmuştur. Bu bağlamda, Çin ve ABD'nin ulusal güvenlik strateji belgelerinin ele alındıkları bu çalışmada, iki ülke arasındaki rekabetin Allison'ın Tukidides Tuzağı kavramına göre ne ölçüde gelişeceği ve ayrıca Allison’ın gelecekte Çin ile ABD arasında bir savaşın çıkacağı öngörüsü değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tukidides Tuzağı
• Amerika Birleşik Devletleri
• Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejileri
• Çin
• Realizm

Kaynakça

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