Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface

Salvatore Polverino; Elif Gizem Yetkin; Hourakhsh Ahmad Nia

doi:10.31127/tuje.1968172

Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface

Abstract

MODIS/EFFIS burned-area archives provide reproducible information on wildfire occurrence, perimeter geometry, administrative attribution, mapped area, date fields, and land-cover composition. However, their translation into proportionate municipal documentation, monitoring, coordination, and territorial-management evidence remains only partially formalized, especially in volcanic–urban interfaces where relatively compact burned-area records may still generate non-negligible administrative pressure. This study develops a scenario-based multi-pyDEMATEL workflow for assessing Administrative Burned-Area Burden in the Vesuvian interface, southern Italy. Rather than modelling burn severity, hydrogeomorphic susceptibility, legal responsibility, or field-validated damage, the analysis reframes MODIS/EFFIS records as traceable administrative evidence for multi-criteria decision-chain screening. Four bounded objectives are addressed: (i) to construct a GIS-ready burned-area support for the Vesuvian interface while retaining Napoli and Campania layers as contextual references; (ii) to derive ten non-hydrogeomorphic Administrative Burned-Area descriptors describing burned-area share, recurrence, large-event dominance, administrative concentration, protected-area exposure, agricultural exposure, urban/interface exposure, forest–shrubland signature, event-duration burden, and reporting/update lag; (iii) to structure these descriptors through a scenario-based multi-pyDEMATEL ensemble comprising 121 scenario-specific DEMATEL computations, and to audit the resulting fingerprints through PCA; and (iv) to translate the resulting Administrative Burned-Area Burden Index into municipal ABBI classes suitable for QGIS visualization, documentation prioritization, and verification-oriented monitoring. The results indicate a marked concentration of Vesuvian burned-area burden across a limited number of event and municipal supports, while the DEMATEL/PCA outputs help distinguish stable and divergent descriptor configurations within the administrative evidence system. The resulting ABBI layer is therefore interpreted as a governance-sensitive, GIS-ready decision-support product, not as a hazard map, burn-severity product, legal-liability surface, municipal-responsibility boundary, or DEM-derived susceptibility model. The framework provides a reproducible audit chain for converting open burned-area archives into cautious and interpretable territorial-management evidence.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

Department Training and Internationalization, Via Benedetto Brin n. 55/A13, 80142 Napoli, Italy, Ordine degli Architetti, Pianificatori, Paesaggisti e Conservatori della Provincia di Napoli, +39 081 423 8259

Project Number

1

Ethical Statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The numerical conclusions, as well as their numerical processing, have not accountability in the role, design, collection, or interpretation of data but aims at demonstrating adequate and fine-tuned methodologies for “Valutazione Impatto Ambientale”(VIA) (Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), “Valutazione Impatto Strategica” (VAS) (Strategic Environmental Assessment, SEA), that are derived from three branches in the process of Training and Internationalization c/o the Ordine degli Architetti Pianificatori Paesaggisti Conservatori di Napoli e Provincia: architecture of landscape, engineering for the territory and agronomy whose international commitment was characterized by former President Arch. Raffaele Sirica (1995-1997) in occasion of the Habitat II program by the second United Nations Conference on Human Settlements, taken place from June 3 to 14, 1996, in Istanbul, Turkey. The Department does not promote any misconduct, e.g., 95/46/EC and Regulation (EC) No 45/2001 (EC) No 45/2001, by endorsing the reintroduction of historical components ecologically suitable, a sustainable land use perspective and data extraction techniques.

Thanks

Ground imagery and press assets: Ground-context and firefighting-response imagery were provided by, or derived from, materials of the Agenzia per la Protezione Civile – Provincia Autonoma di Bolzano/Alto Adige / USP–Vigili del Fuoco, under CC BY 4.0 or under the permission/credit terms indicated in the corresponding figure captions. These materials are used exclusively for qualitative contextualization of the operational and post-fire setting; they do not constitute analytical input data, field-validation evidence, burn-severity calibration, legal-liability support, municipal-responsibility evidence, or official hazard documentation. Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable. This study does not involve human participants, identifiable personal data, or live animals; it relies exclusively on open satellite/remote-sensing data (Sentinel-2) and publicly available geospatial layers. Under such conditions, an IRB/ethics review is not required by the participating institutions for non-human-subject research. For reference, the UPC Ethics Committee oversees ethical assessment for studies involving people or personal data a scope that does not apply here. The Ordine degli Architetti di Napoli is a professional body (not an IRB) and therefore does not issue ethics approvals for non-human-subject geospatial analyses. Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable. This study does not involve human participants or identifiable personal data. (No patients are included; therefore, written informed consent for publication is not required.). The research relies exclusively on remote sensing and publicly released geospatial layers from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMSR830) and official Civil Protection operational communications; no questionnaires, interviews, or experiments with human or animal subjects were conducted. The authors also acknowledge Chekry et al. for the development of pyDEMATEL, a Python-based implementation of DEMATEL and Fuzzy DEMATEL methods that supports transparent and reproducible matrix-based decision analysis. The original software authors were not involved in the design, analysis, interpretation, or approval of the present study.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Health and Ecological Risk Assessment

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Salvatore Polverino ^*
0000-0002-5500-8443
Italy

Elif Gizem Yetkin
0000-0001-8775-8313
Türkiye

Hourakhsh Ahmad Nia
0000-0002-1083-280X
Türkiye

Publication Date

October 16, 2026

Submission Date

June 10, 2026

Acceptance Date

July 19, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 10 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1968172

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA75LB53PF

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Polverino, S., Yetkin, E. G., & Ahmad Nia, H. (2026). Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface. Turkish Journal of Engineering, 10(4), 1677-1711. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1968172

AMA

1.Polverino S, Yetkin EG, Ahmad Nia H. Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface. TUJE. 2026;10(4):1677-1711. doi:10.31127/tuje.1968172

Chicago

Polverino, Salvatore, Elif Gizem Yetkin, and Hourakhsh Ahmad Nia. 2026. “Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based Multi-PyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface”. Turkish Journal of Engineering 10 (4): 1677-1711. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1968172.

EndNote

Polverino S, Yetkin EG, Ahmad Nia H (October 1, 2026) Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface. Turkish Journal of Engineering 10 4 1677–1711.

IEEE

[1]S. Polverino, E. G. Yetkin, and H. Ahmad Nia, “Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface”, TUJE, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 1677–1711, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.31127/tuje.1968172.

ISNAD

Polverino, Salvatore - Yetkin, Elif Gizem - Ahmad Nia, Hourakhsh. “Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based Multi-PyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface”. Turkish Journal of Engineering 10/4 (October 1, 2026): 1677-1711. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1968172.

JAMA

1.Polverino S, Yetkin EG, Ahmad Nia H. Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface. TUJE. 2026;10:1677–1711.

MLA

Polverino, Salvatore, et al. “Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based Multi-PyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface”. Turkish Journal of Engineering, vol. 10, no. 4, Oct. 2026, pp. 1677-11, doi:10.31127/tuje.1968172.

Vancouver

1.Salvatore Polverino, Elif Gizem Yetkin, Hourakhsh Ahmad Nia. Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface. TUJE. 2026 Oct. 1;10(4):1677-711. doi:10.31127/tuje.1968172