PREDICTING THE ENERGY PRODUCTION OF A ROOFTOP PV PLANT BY USING DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION ALGORITHM

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 3, 106 - 109, 01.07.2019

Ali Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.466953

Cited By: 1

Öz

In this study, a simple and plain closed-form mathematical expression has been obtained to precisely estimate the monthly production of a rooftop photovoltaic (PV) plant installed in Adana, Turkey. The proposed model is developed by utilizing the Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm based on the PV plant’s 5-year (August 2013 – July 2018) real measurement data. The PV plant is a grid-connected rooftop solar PV system located at Kıvanç Textile in Adana, Turkey. The PV system is equipped with an online monitoring system that provides real time data. The study shows the actual energy production is 730 MWh/year on average for 5 years. In order to test the robustness and precision of the present model, it has been compared with the long-term real measurement data of the PV system. The key benefit of the model is giving a convincing prediction of the future production of the PV panel in a simple way. It also does not require any further information other than time. Average percentage error was reached as small as 7.4% for 5-year data.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Production Estimation, Rooftop PV Plant, Optimization, Long Term Performance, Adana

Kaynakça

• Ak. C., Yildiz A. (2018) “A novel closed-form expression obtained by using differential evolution algorithm to calculate pull-in voltage of mems cantilever.” Journal of microelectromechanical systems, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 392-397.
• Almorox, J. (2011). ‘‘Estimating global solar radiation from common meteorological data in Aranjuez, Spain.’’ Turkish Journal of Physics, Vol. 35, pp. 53-64.
• Arslan, G., Bayhan, B. (2016). “Solar energy potential in Mersin and a Simple model to predict daily solar radiation.” Mugla Journal of Science and Technology, Special Issue, pp. 1-4.
• Bayhan B., Arslan G. (2018) “Applicability of solar and wind energy technologies for a non-residential building.” Turkish Journal of Engineering, Vol. 2, No.1, pp. 27-34.
• Bulut, H., Buyukalaca. O. (2007). “Simple model for the generation of daily global solar-radiation data in Turkey.” Applied Energy, Vol. 85, No. 5, pp. 477-491.
• Ecevit A., Akinoglu B. G., Aksoy B. (2002) “Generation of a typical meteorological year using sunshine-duration data.” Energy, Vol. 27, No: 10, pp. 947-954.
• Hepbaslı A., Ulgen K. (2002) “Prediction of solar-radiation parameters through the clearness index for Izmir, Turkey.” Energy Source, Vol. 24, No. 8, pp. 773-785.
• Kaygusuz K. (1999) “The comparison of measured and calculated solar radiations in Trabzon, Turkey.” Energy Source, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 347-353.
• Kaygusuz K., Ayhan T. (1999) “Analysis of solar radiation data for Trabzon, Turkey.” Energy Convers Manage, Vol. 40, No. 5, pp. 545-556.
• Knight K. M., Klein S. A., Duffie J. A. (1991) “A methodology for the synthesis of hourly weather data.” Sol Energy, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp.109-120.
• Ogulata R. T., Ogulata S. N. (2002) “Solar radiation on Adana, Turkey.” Appl Energy, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 351-358.
• Storn R., Price K. (1997) “Differential evolution-A simple and efficient heuristic for global optimization over continuous spaces.” J. Global Optim., Vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 341-359.
• Togrul I.T., Onat E. (1999) “A study for estimating solar radiation in Elazıg using geographical and meteorological data.” Energy Convers Manage, Vol. 40, No.14, pp. 1577-1584.
• Togrul I. T., Onat E. (2002) “Global solar-radiation over Turkey: comparison of predicted and measured data.” Renew Energy, Vol.25, No. 1, pp. 55-67.
• Ulgen K., Hepbaslı A. (2002) “Comparison of solar-radiation correlations for _Izmir, Turkey.” Int J Energy Res, Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 413-430.