Modelling and assessing the impact of illegal water abstractions by upstream farmers on reservoir performance
Yıl 2021,
, 47 - 54, 15.12.2021
Nura Jafar Shanono
John Ndiritu
Öz
This study proposes a reservoir yield analysis that incorporates the realities of upstream illegal human activities relating to water abstraction. The study assesses the impact of such unlawful human activities on reservoir storage and yields quantitatively. A reservoir operation water balance model was simulated and coupled with upstream irrigation users’ propensity to unauthorized water abstraction and set to co-evolve for the entire simulation period. The model was developed using four-state drivers (hydrological state, users’ compliance, management competence and reservoir performance). The impact of human behaviour (users’ and management) was assessed using 9 plausible human behaviour scenarios. The model was applied to a system of 5 reservoirs using the 90-year historical hydrologic dataset. The trajectories of the storage, yield-demand and storage-yield ratios were analyzed under different human behaviour scenarios. Both storage and yield were found to substantially decrease as users’ compliance and management competence deteriorated for the same reservoir hydrological state. Depending on the scenario, the annual yield (%) was observed to reduce from 100 to 80 or 50 or even 30 of the annual demand due to changing behaviour. Also, most of the years in which the yield differs significantly from one scenario to the other are years with shallow storage due to drought. A yield difference of about 23% was recorded between the scenarios without and with the highest unauthorized abstractions. The study, therefore, revealed how human behaviour can significantly affect reservoir storage and yield performances. This highlighted the need to be incorporating the impact of unlawful human activities into yield analysis models to quantitatively assess the impact of human behaviour on reservoir performance.
Teşekkür
I would like to thank the management of Bayero University Kano for the sponsorship to undertake this study. Thank you.
Kaynakça
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- Di Baldassarre, G., Kooy, M., Kemerink, J.S., & Brandimarte, L. (2013a). Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(8), 3235–3244.
- Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., & Salinas, J.L. (2013b). Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(8), 3295–3303.
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Martinez, F., Kalantari, Z., & Viglione, A. (2017). Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation. Earth System Dynamics, 8(1), 225–233.
- Elshafei, Y., Sivapalan, M., Tonts, M., & Hipsey, M.R. (2014). A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology : identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(6), 2141–2166.
- Firoz, A.B.M., Nauditt, A., Fink, M., & Ribbe, L. (2017). Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in Central Vietnam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion, 22(1), 547-565.
- Forbes, B.C., Fresco, N., Shvidenko, A., Danell, K., & Stuart, F. (2013). Geographic Variations in Anthropogenic Drivers that Influence the Vulnerability and of Social-Ecological Resilience Systems. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 33(6), 377–382.
- Gonzalez, J.J., & Sawicka, A. (2003). The role of learning and risk perception in compliance. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York.
- Groenfeldt, D. (2010). The next nexus: Environmental ethics, water management and climate change. Water Alternatives, 3(3), 575.
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- Joshi, G.S., & Gupta, K. (2009). A simulation model for the operation of a multipurpose multi-reservoir system for River Narmada, India. Journal of Hydro-Environment Research, 3(2), 96–108.
- Kinzig, A.P., Ehrlich, P.R., Alston, L.J., Arrow, K., Barrett, S., Buchman, T.G., ... & Saari, D. (2013). Social norms and global environmental challenges: the complex interaction of behaviors, values, and policy. BioScience, 63(3), 164-175.
- Komarek, P., & Moore, A.W. (2005). Making logistic regression a core data mining tool: A practical investigation of accuracy, speed, and simplicity.In Institute, Carnegie Mellon University.
- Liu, D., Tian, F., Lin, M., & Sivapalan, M. (2015). A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: a case study of the Tarim River basin, western China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(2), 1035–1054.
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- Muller, M. (2017). Understanding the origins of Cape Town’s water crisis. Civil Engineering= Siviele Ingenieurswese, 2017(5), 11-16.
- Ndiritu, J.G. (2005). Maximising water supply system yield is subject to multiple reliability constraints via simulation-optimisation. Water SA, 31(4), 423–434.
- Rittel, H.W.J., & Webber, M.M. (1973). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences, 4(2), 155–169.
- Sarkar, A., Mukhopadhyay, A.R., & Ghosh, S.K. (2011). Comparison of performance appraisal score: A modified methodology. Research and Practice in Human Resource Management, 19(2), 92–100.
- Shanono, N.J. (2019). Assessing the Impact of Human Behaviour on Reservoir System Performance Using Dynamic Co-evolution, A PhD Thesis Submitted to University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
- Shanono, N.J. (2020). Applying the concept of socio-hydrology to assess the impact of human behaviour on water management sectors: A review. Bayero J.of Eng & Tech, 15(2), 105–116.
- Shanono, N.J. (2021). Co-evolutionary dynamics of human behaviour and water resource systems performance: a socio-hydrological framework. Academia Letters.
- Shanono, N.J., Nasidi, N.M., Maina, M.M., Bello, M.M., Ibrahim, A., Umar, S.I., … & Putra, U. (2019). Socio-hydrological study of water users’ perceptions on the management of irrigation schemes at Tomas irrigation project, Kano, Nigeria. Nig J. Eng, Sci & TECH, 5(2), 139–145.
- Sivapalan, M., Savenije, H.H.G., & Blöschl, G. (2012). Socio-hydrology: A new science of people and water. Hydrological Processes, 26(8), 1270–1276.
- Tenbrunsel, A.E., & Smith‐Crowe, K. (2008). Ethical decision making: where we’ve been and where we’re going. The Academy of Management Annals, 2(1), 545–607.
- Tiliouine, H., Cummins, R.A., & Davern, M. (2006). Measuring wellbeing in developing countries: The case of Algeria. Social indicators research, 75(1), 1-30.
- Treviño, L.K., Weaver, G.R., & Reynolds, S.J. (2006). Behavioural Ethics in Organizations: A Review. Journal of Management, 32(6), 951–990.
- Van Oel, P.R., Krol, M.S., Hoekstra, A.Y., & De Araújo, J.C. (2008). The impact of upstream water abstractions on reservoir yield: The case of the Orós Reservoir in Brazil. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(4), 857–867.
- Viglione, A., Di, G., Brandimarte, L., Kuil, L., Carr, G., Luis, J., Scolobig, A., & Blöschl, G. (2014). Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk–roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust. Journal of Hydrology, 518, 71–82.
- Walker, W.E., Rahman, S.A., & Cave, J. (2001). Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research, 128(2), 282–289.
- Url-1: http://www.dwa.gov.za/Masibambane/documents/structures/wsslg/may10/WSLG TT Report Version 01.pdf (last accessed 27 June 2021)
Yıl 2021,
, 47 - 54, 15.12.2021
Nura Jafar Shanono
John Ndiritu
Kaynakça
- Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behaviour. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211.
- Aljetlawi, A.A., Sparrevik, E., & Leonardsson, K. (2004). Prey-predator size-dependent functional response: derivation and rescaling to the real world. Journal of Animal Ecology, 73(3), 239–252.
- Bhagwan, J., Wegelin, W., McKenzie, R., & Wensley, A. (2014). Counting the lost drops: South Africa’s study into non-revenue water. Water Practice and Technology, 9(4), 502–508.
- Di Baldassarre, G., Kooy, M., Kemerink, J.S., & Brandimarte, L. (2013a). Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(8), 3235–3244.
- Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., & Salinas, J.L. (2013b). Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(8), 3295–3303.
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Martinez, F., Kalantari, Z., & Viglione, A. (2017). Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation. Earth System Dynamics, 8(1), 225–233.
- Elshafei, Y., Sivapalan, M., Tonts, M., & Hipsey, M.R. (2014). A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology : identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(6), 2141–2166.
- Firoz, A.B.M., Nauditt, A., Fink, M., & Ribbe, L. (2017). Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in Central Vietnam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion, 22(1), 547-565.
- Forbes, B.C., Fresco, N., Shvidenko, A., Danell, K., & Stuart, F. (2013). Geographic Variations in Anthropogenic Drivers that Influence the Vulnerability and of Social-Ecological Resilience Systems. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 33(6), 377–382.
- Gonzalez, J.J., & Sawicka, A. (2003). The role of learning and risk perception in compliance. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York.
- Groenfeldt, D. (2010). The next nexus: Environmental ethics, water management and climate change. Water Alternatives, 3(3), 575.
- Groenfeldt, D. (2013). Water Ethics: A values approach to solving the water crisis (First Edit). Routledge.
- Holling, C.S. (1959). The components of predation as revealed by a study of small-mammal predation of the European Pine Sawfly1. The Canadian Entomologist, 91(5), 293-320.
- Joshi, G.S., & Gupta, K. (2009). A simulation model for the operation of a multipurpose multi-reservoir system for River Narmada, India. Journal of Hydro-Environment Research, 3(2), 96–108.
- Kinzig, A.P., Ehrlich, P.R., Alston, L.J., Arrow, K., Barrett, S., Buchman, T.G., ... & Saari, D. (2013). Social norms and global environmental challenges: the complex interaction of behaviors, values, and policy. BioScience, 63(3), 164-175.
- Komarek, P., & Moore, A.W. (2005). Making logistic regression a core data mining tool: A practical investigation of accuracy, speed, and simplicity.In Institute, Carnegie Mellon University.
- Liu, D., Tian, F., Lin, M., & Sivapalan, M. (2015). A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: a case study of the Tarim River basin, western China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(2), 1035–1054.
- Montanari, A., Young, G., Savenije, H.H.G., Hughes, D., Wagener, T., Ren, L.L., … & Z. Balyaev, V. (2013). “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows”: Change in hydrology and society-The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013–2022. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1256–1275.
- Muller, M. (2017). Understanding the origins of Cape Town’s water crisis. Civil Engineering= Siviele Ingenieurswese, 2017(5), 11-16.
- Ndiritu, J.G. (2005). Maximising water supply system yield is subject to multiple reliability constraints via simulation-optimisation. Water SA, 31(4), 423–434.
- Rittel, H.W.J., & Webber, M.M. (1973). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences, 4(2), 155–169.
- Sarkar, A., Mukhopadhyay, A.R., & Ghosh, S.K. (2011). Comparison of performance appraisal score: A modified methodology. Research and Practice in Human Resource Management, 19(2), 92–100.
- Shanono, N.J. (2019). Assessing the Impact of Human Behaviour on Reservoir System Performance Using Dynamic Co-evolution, A PhD Thesis Submitted to University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
- Shanono, N.J. (2020). Applying the concept of socio-hydrology to assess the impact of human behaviour on water management sectors: A review. Bayero J.of Eng & Tech, 15(2), 105–116.
- Shanono, N.J. (2021). Co-evolutionary dynamics of human behaviour and water resource systems performance: a socio-hydrological framework. Academia Letters.
- Shanono, N.J., Nasidi, N.M., Maina, M.M., Bello, M.M., Ibrahim, A., Umar, S.I., … & Putra, U. (2019). Socio-hydrological study of water users’ perceptions on the management of irrigation schemes at Tomas irrigation project, Kano, Nigeria. Nig J. Eng, Sci & TECH, 5(2), 139–145.
- Sivapalan, M., Savenije, H.H.G., & Blöschl, G. (2012). Socio-hydrology: A new science of people and water. Hydrological Processes, 26(8), 1270–1276.
- Tenbrunsel, A.E., & Smith‐Crowe, K. (2008). Ethical decision making: where we’ve been and where we’re going. The Academy of Management Annals, 2(1), 545–607.
- Tiliouine, H., Cummins, R.A., & Davern, M. (2006). Measuring wellbeing in developing countries: The case of Algeria. Social indicators research, 75(1), 1-30.
- Treviño, L.K., Weaver, G.R., & Reynolds, S.J. (2006). Behavioural Ethics in Organizations: A Review. Journal of Management, 32(6), 951–990.
- Van Oel, P.R., Krol, M.S., Hoekstra, A.Y., & De Araújo, J.C. (2008). The impact of upstream water abstractions on reservoir yield: The case of the Orós Reservoir in Brazil. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(4), 857–867.
- Viglione, A., Di, G., Brandimarte, L., Kuil, L., Carr, G., Luis, J., Scolobig, A., & Blöschl, G. (2014). Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk–roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust. Journal of Hydrology, 518, 71–82.
- Walker, W.E., Rahman, S.A., & Cave, J. (2001). Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research, 128(2), 282–289.
- Url-1: http://www.dwa.gov.za/Masibambane/documents/structures/wsslg/may10/WSLG TT Report Version 01.pdf (last accessed 27 June 2021)