CAUSAL LINKAGES BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND STOCK MARKET INDICATORS IN MIST COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE PANEL FOURIER TODA-YAMAMOTO TEST

Yıl 2026, Sayı: 50, 363 - 380, 31.01.2026

Ömer Keskin , Onur Şeyranlıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1677765

https://izlik.org/JA25JG85YH

Öz

This study aims to reveal the causal relationships between trade openness and stock market indicators within the sample of MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Türkiye) countries. Annual data covering the period 1995-2022 were utilized in the analysis. The Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (PFTY) causality test was employed as the methodological approach. The findings indicate statistically significant causal linkages running from the trade openness index to the market capitalization of listed domestic companies, the total value of stocks traded, and the number of listed companies in MIST countries. Conversely, causal linkages from the total value of stocks traded to the trade openness index were also observed. The results suggest that increased trade openness enhances the depth and liquidity of capital markets, thereby positively influencing market capitalization, while also demonstrating that the strengthening of capital markets plays a significant role in the expansion of foreign trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

MIST Countries , Panel Fourier Causality , Trade Openness , Stock Market

MIST ÜLKELERİNDE TİCARİ AÇIKLIK VE BORSA GÖSTERGELERİ ARASINDAKİ NEDENSEL BAĞLANTILAR: PANEL FOURİER TODA-YAMAMOTO TESTİNDEN KANITLAR

https://izlik.org/JA25JG85YH

Öz

Bu çalışma, MIST (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore, Türkiye) ülkeleri örnekleminde ticari açıklık ve borsa göstergeleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Analizde 1995-2022 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Test yöntemi olarak Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (PFTY) nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; MIST ülkelerinde ticari açıklık endeksinden borsada listelenen yurt içi şirketlerin toplam piyasa değerine, hisse senetlerinin toplam işlem hacmine ve toplam şirket sayısına doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı nedensellik ilişkileri bulunmaktadır. Diğer taraftan hisse senetlerinin toplam işlem hacminden ticari açıklık endeksine doğru nedensel bağlantılar da vardır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, MIST ülkelerinde ticari açıklığın artmasıyla birlikte sermaye piyasalarının derinliği ve likiditesinin arttığını ve bunun borsada listelenen yurt içi şirketlerin toplam piyasa değerine pozitif yansıdığını göstermenin yanı sıra sermaye piyasalarının güçlenmesinin dış ticaretin genişlemesi üzerinde de önemli bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

MİST Ülkeleri , Panel Fourier Nedensellik , Ticari Açıklık , Borsa

Kaynakça

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