SAĞLIK HARCMALARININ ENFLASYON KARŞISINDAKİ DEĞİŞİMİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN İLERİYE DÖNÜK ÇIKARIMLAR

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 49, 37 - 50, 29.10.2025

Zeynep Özmen Bol , Serkan Cantürk

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1608149

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de sağlık harcamalarının yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde nasıl sürdürülebileceğini kapsamlı bir şekilde incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, 2010-2019 yıllarına ait sağlık harcamaları ve enflasyon verileri analiz edilmiş ve 2023 yılı için projeksiyonlar oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmanın yöntemi, geçmiş verilerin zaman serisi analizi ve ekonomik projeksiyonlarla değerlendirilmesi şeklinde yapılandırılmıştır. Bulgular, beklenen %14,3 oranına kıyasla, sağlık harcamalarının büyüme oranının %5’in altında kaldığını ve bu durumun sağlık sektöründe ciddi finansal baskılar yarattığını göstermektedir. COVID-19 pandemisi ve Ukrayna savaşı, Türkiye’de sağlık harcamaları üzerinde doğrudan etkiler yaratmıştır. Bu olaylar, enflasyonu artırarak ve bütçe açıklarını genişleterek sağlık sektörünü zorlamış, kamu harcamalarının sürdürülebilirliğini tehlikeye sokmuştur. Sonuç olarak, 2040 yılına kadar kamu bütçesinden sağlığa ayrılan payın yaklaşık %7 oranında artırılması gerektiği öngörülmektedir. Çalışma, kamu kaynaklarının artırılmasının zorluklarına dikkat çekmekte ve özel sektör katkısının artırılmasını önermektedir. Sağlık sektörünün sürdürülebilir finansmanı için yenilikçi stratejilerin geliştirilmesi büyük önem taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon , Sağlık Harcamalarının Sürdürülebilirliği , Kamu Finansmanı

CHANGES IN HEALTH EXPENDITURE RELATIVE TO INFLATION: PROSPECTIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR TÜRKİYE

Öz

This study aims to examine how healthcare expenditures can be sustained during periods of high inflaiton in Türkiye. For this purpose, healthcare expenditure and inflation data from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed, and projections were developed for 2023. The methodology involves the evaluation of historical data using time series analysis and economic projections. The findings show that the healthcare expenditure growth rate, below 5%, is far lower than the expected 14.3%, placing significant financial pressure on the sector. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war have directly impacted healthcare expenditures in Turkey. These events have exacerbated inflation and widened budget deficits, placing additional strain on the sustainability of public healthcare funding. As a result, it is projected that the share of the public budget allocated to healthcare needs to increase by approximately 7% by 2040. The study highlights the challenges of increasing public resources and recommends a greater contribution from the private sector. Developing innovative strategies is crucial for ensuring the sustainable financing of the healthcare sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation , Sustainability of Health Expenditures , Public Finance

Kaynakça

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