Yıl 2016, Cilt 8 , Sayı 2, Sayfalar 46 - 54 2016-06-15

Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis
Türkiye’de İş Kazalarından Kaynaklanan Ölüm ve Sürekli İş Göremezlik Vakalarının Regresyonla Tahmini

Hüseyin CEYLAN [1]


In this study, occupational accident estimation models were developed by using regression analysis (RA) method for Turkey. Using these models death and permanent incapacity numbers resulting from occupational accidents was estimated for Turkey until the year 2025 by the three different scenarios. In the development of the models, insured workers, work place, occupational accident, death and permanent incapacity values were used as model parameters with offical data between 1970 and 2012. In the Regression Analysis linear function is used. According to this function; x1 represents number of insured workers; x2 represents number of workplaces; x3 represents number of  occupational accidents; y1 represents deaths resulting from occupational accidents; y2 represents permanent incapacities resulting from occupational accidents. ˆ0 , ˆ 1, ˆ 2 and ˆ3 are the constant of the liner function. First accident data between 1970-2012 was used to obtain the linear regression function. Then by using this regression function estimated accident data for the years 1970 to 2012 were evaluated. When real and estimated data compared, it was seen that regression analysis method is suitable for estimation of occupational accidents. The performances of developed models were evaluated by the use of Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Errors (MAE)')


Bu çalışmada Regresyon Analizi (RA) kullanılarak Türkiye geneli için iş kazası tahmin modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Bu modeller kullanılarak Türkiye’nin 2025 yılına kadar olan süreçte, i ve sürekli iş göremezlik vaka sayıları farklı üç senaryo dahilinde tahmin edilmiştir. Model geliştirilirken sigortalı işçi, işyeri, iş kazası, i ve sürekli iş göremezlik sayıları model parametreleri olarak kullanılmış ve bu parametrelere ait 1970-2012 yılları arasındaki resmi verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Regresyon Analizinde doğrusal fonksiyon kullanılmıştır. Modellerde kullanılan bu fonksiyonda; x1 sigortalı işçi sayısını, x2 işyeri sayısını, x3 iş kazası sayısını, y1 i vaka sayısını, y2 ise iş kazası sonucu sürekli iş göremezlik vaka sayısını temsil etmektedir. ˆ0 , ˆ 1, ˆ 2 ve ˆ3 doğrusal fonksiyonun sabitleridir. Çalışmada öncelikle 1970- 2012 arasındaki kaza verileri kullanılarak doğrusal regresyon fonksiyonu elde edilmiştir. Sonra bu regresyon fonksiyonuna 1970- 2012 arasındaki kaza verileri tahmin ettirilmiştir. Çıkan sonuç gerçek değerlerle kıyaslanmış ve regresyon analizi metodunun iş kazası tahmin modelleri için uygun olduğu görülmüştür. Geliştirilen modellerin performansları Ortalama Mutlak Yüzde Hata (OMYH) ve Ortalama Mutlak Hata (OMH) ölçütleri içinde değerlendirilmiştir.


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Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yazar: Hüseyin CEYLAN

Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 15 Haziran 2016

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { umagd346156, journal = {International Journal of Engineering Research and Development}, issn = {}, eissn = {1308-5514}, address = {Kırıkkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dekanlığı Kampüs 71450 Yahşihan/KIRIKKALE}, publisher = {Kırıkkale Üniversitesi}, year = {2016}, volume = {8}, pages = {46 - 54}, doi = {10.29137/umagd.346156}, title = {Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis}, key = {cite}, author = {CEYLAN, Hüseyin} }
APA CEYLAN, H . (2016). Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development , 8 (2) , 46-54 . DOI: 10.29137/umagd.346156
MLA CEYLAN, H . "Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis". International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 8 (2016 ): 46-54 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/umagd/issue/31735/346156>
Chicago CEYLAN, H . "Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis". International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 8 (2016 ): 46-54
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis AU - Hüseyin CEYLAN Y1 - 2016 PY - 2016 N1 - doi: 10.29137/umagd.346156 DO - 10.29137/umagd.346156 T2 - International Journal of Engineering Research and Development JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 46 EP - 54 VL - 8 IS - 2 SN - -1308-5514 M3 - doi: 10.29137/umagd.346156 UR - https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.346156 Y2 - 2016 ER -
EndNote %0 Uluslararası Mühendislik Araştırma ve Geliştirme Dergisi Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis %A Hüseyin CEYLAN %T Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis %D 2016 %J International Journal of Engineering Research and Development %P -1308-5514 %V 8 %N 2 %R doi: 10.29137/umagd.346156 %U 10.29137/umagd.346156
ISNAD CEYLAN, Hüseyin . "Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis". International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 8 / 2 (Haziran 2016): 46-54 . https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.346156
AMA CEYLAN H . Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis. IJERAD. 2016; 8(2): 46-54.
Vancouver CEYLAN H . Prediction of Death and Permanent Incapacity Numbers Resulting From Occupational Accidents in Turkey by Using Regression Analysis. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development. 2016; 8(2): 54-46.