Estimating the total cost of fasciolosis in sheep and goats in Türkiye with a stochastic simulation model

Abstract

This study aimed to estimate the total cost of small ruminant fasciolosis in Türkiye. For this purpose, official and previously published prevalence values were considered, and financial losses were calculated with current prices in 2024 year. A stochastic simulation model (Monte Carlo) was used to estimate the total cost due to fasciolosis. The weighted mean prevalence values were calculated for sheep as 3.47% (95% CI, 3.43-3.51%) and goats as 1.25% (95% CI, 1.20-1.30%). In total cost calculations, mortality losses, production losses and control expenditures were considered. As a result, annual total cost of fasciolosis for sheep was estimated to be $95.2 million (95% CI, $86.7-$104.2) and for goats $5.7 million (95% CI, $3.6-$7.9). The annual total cost of the disease in small ruminants was estimated to be $100.9 million (95% CI, $91.8-$110.2) and this amount is equally to 0.8% of total livestock production value in Türkiye. In conclusion, to reduce the impact of the disease for livestock sector and Turkish economy, producers should be informed about the quantity of losses and prevention/treatment procedures and, fasciolosis should be prioritized in national disease control/eradication strategies.

Keywords

• Fasciolosis
• Goat
• Losses
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Sheep
• Türkiye

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