FEEDBACK MECHANISM IN MONEY MARKETS AND FINANCIAL CRISES / Para Piyasalarında Geri Besleme Mekanizması Ve Finansal Krizler

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 83 - 94, 30.04.2019

Dicle Özdemir

https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.540667

Öz

The
theory of reflexivity was put forward by George Soros in 1988 and is based
mainly on the argument that the efficient market hypothesis of mainstream
economics is not valid. Contrary to the mainstream economics theory, neither
market participants nor monetary and fiscal authorities can make decisions
based solely on knowledge. Accordingly,
instead of equilibrium in long run, boom/bust cycles are inevitable in
financial markets. The underlying factor behind this view is that prices set by
irrational market participants affect the fundamentals, which affect prices,
etc., in a “reflexive” feedback loop. With the feedback mechanism, ballooning
and rapid fading of the system at the market is inevitable. In this context,
the theory of reflexivity questions the existence of the market equilibrium
process, emphasizing expectations in accordance with the Keynesian view.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Reflexivity Theory, Financial Crises, Keynesian, Asset Prices

PARA PİYASALARINDA GERİ BESLEME MEKANİZMASI VE FİNANSAL KRİZLER / Feedback Mechanism In Money Markets And Financial Crises

Öz

Refleksivite
teorisi 1988 yılında George Soros tarafından ortaya atılmış ve temelde ana akım
iktisat yaklaşımında yer alan etkin piyasa hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı savına
dayanmaktadır. Ana akım iktisat teorisinin aksine, ne piyasa katılımcıları ne
de parasal ve mali otoriteler kararlarını salt bilgiye dayandırabilirler. Buna
göre piyasalarda uzun dönemde denge yerine varlık balonları oluşması
kaçınılmazdır. Bu görüşün altında yatan esas etken irrasyonel piyasa
katılımcıları tarafından belirlenen piyasa fiyatlarının gerçek fiyatları ve
dönüşümlü olarak refleksiv geri besleme mekanizması içinde yeniden piyasa
fiyatlarını etkilemesidir. Geri besleme mekanizması ile piyasalarda sistemin
balonlaşması ve hızla sönmesi kaçınılmaz hale gelir. Bu bağlamda refleksivite
teorisi, Keynesyen görüş ile uyumlu bir şekilde beklentilere vurgu yaparak,
piyasa denge sürecinin varlığını sorgular.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Refleksivite Teorisi, Finansal Krizler, Keynesyen, Varlık Fiyatları

Kaynakça

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