Year 2019, Volume , Issue 24, Pages 171 - 184 2019-07-24

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ
ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ

Arzdar KİRACI [1] , Semih Serkant AKTUĞ [2] , Farhang Abdulkareem AQRAWI [3] , Mehmet DAĞ [4]

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Bu çalışmanın amacı; enflasyon, Irak'ın kuzey bölgesinde (IKB) kullanılan ana para birimlerinin döviz kurları, para arzı ve gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkiyi 2008-2016 dönemi için incelemektir. Bölgenin yüksek enflasyon oranından muzdarip olması ve 2003 yılında eski Irak rejiminin düşmesinden sonra döviz kurlarında dalgalanmalar olması dikkat çekicidir. Bu çalışma, IKB için bir hata düzeltme modeli kullanan konudaki ilk makaledir. Sonuçlar değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. ABD Doları ile bölgedeki enflasyon arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişki pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Euro ile enflasyon arasında negatif bir ilişki vardır ve bu istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. IKB Türkiye'den birçok mal ve hizmet ithal ediyor olmasına rağmen şaşırtıcı bir sonuç, Türk lirası değişkeninin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmaması. Bunun sebebi, ithalat ödemelerinin Türk Lirası ile değil Dolar ile yapılması nedeniyle olabilir.

The purpose of this study is to examine the relation between the inflation rate, foreign exchange rates of the major currencies used in the northern region of Iraq (NRI), money supply and gross domestic product (GDP) for the period 2008-2016. It is notable that the region suffers from high inflation rates and there were fluctuations in foreign exchange rates after the fall of the former Iraqi regime in 2003. This is the first article about this subject for NRI using an error correction model and the results indicate that there is a long-run relation between variables. The relation between US Dollar and inflation in the region is positive and statistically significant. There is a negative relation between Euro and inflation, which is also statistically significant. NRI imports many goods and services from Turkey, but a surprising result is that the Turkish Lira variable is not statistically significant. This may be due to the fact that import payments are done with Dollars and not Turkish Liras. There is also a negative long-run relation for the variables GDP and money supply, which are not statistically significant. In the analysis, money supply by the Iraqi Central Bank was used as the money supply variable, but the amount of money supply in the NRI is not proportional to the amount offered by the Central Bank, there is no advanced banking system in the region. The amount of Dinar coming into the region consists of converting the oil export revenues into Iraqi dinar and supplying these Dinars as payments to the market. Therefore, the NRI money supply will depend on the oil revenues and the Dollar, which makes money supply variable statistically insignificant.

Inflation Rate, Foreign Exchange Rate, Money Supply, GDP, Error Correction Model
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Primary Language en
Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-6123-2508
Author: Arzdar KİRACI
Institution: SIIRT UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-9745-0010
Author: Semih Serkant AKTUĞ
Institution: SİİRT UNİVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-3605-7661
Author: Farhang Abdulkareem AQRAWI
Institution: IRAQ MINISTRY OF EDUCATION

Orcid: 0000-0003-2206-2184
Author: Mehmet DAĞ
Institution: FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC FINANCE
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date: July 24, 2019

Bibtex @research article { ulikidince533805, journal = {Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi}, issn = {1307-9832}, eissn = {1307-9859}, address = {Kenan ÇELİK}, year = {2019}, volume = {}, pages = {171 - 184}, doi = {10.18092/ulikidince.533805}, title = {ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ}, key = {cite}, author = {KİRACI, Arzdar and AKTUĞ, Semih Serkant and AQRAWI, Farhang Abdulkareem and DAĞ, Mehmet} }
APA KİRACI, A , AKTUĞ, S , AQRAWI, F , DAĞ, M . (2019). ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (24), 171-184. DOI: 10.18092/ulikidince.533805
MLA KİRACI, A , AKTUĞ, S , AQRAWI, F , DAĞ, M . "ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2019): 171-184 <http://dergipark.org.tr/ulikidince/issue/47284/533805>
Chicago KİRACI, A , AKTUĞ, S , AQRAWI, F , DAĞ, M . "ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2019): 171-184
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ AU - Arzdar KİRACI , Semih Serkant AKTUĞ , Farhang Abdulkareem AQRAWI , Mehmet DAĞ Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.533805 DO - 10.18092/ulikidince.533805 T2 - Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 171 EP - 184 VL - IS - 24 SN - 1307-9832-1307-9859 M3 - doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.533805 UR - https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.533805 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 International Journal of Economics and Administrative Studies ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ %A Arzdar KİRACI , Semih Serkant AKTUĞ , Farhang Abdulkareem AQRAWI , Mehmet DAĞ %T ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ %D 2019 %J Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi %P 1307-9832-1307-9859 %V %N 24 %R doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.533805 %U 10.18092/ulikidince.533805
ISNAD KİRACI, Arzdar , AKTUĞ, Semih Serkant , AQRAWI, Farhang Abdulkareem , DAĞ, Mehmet . "ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi / 24 (July 2019): 171-184. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.533805
AMA KİRACI A , AKTUĞ S , AQRAWI F , DAĞ M . ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ. IJEAS. 2019; (24): 171-184.
Vancouver KİRACI A , AKTUĞ S , AQRAWI F , DAĞ M . ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLATION AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN REGION OF IRAQ. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi. 2019; (24): 184-171.