Öz
Dry bulk freight market is one of the most important
indicators of global economic activity as it is the market for the
transportation of raw materials that make up final products. So, the world
economy is one of the most important demand factors for maritime transport. But
supply in the maritime market is inelastic and the market cannot immediately
respond to sudden demand growth and rates declines in the short run. Therefore,
the sudden increases and decreases in the economy result in extraordinary
income changes in the freight market. In this framework, the influence of
economic growth on freight rates is an important issue to be examined. This
study aims to contribute to the current literature by empirically examining the
effect of economic growth on the dry bulk market. World GDP (Gross Domestic
Product) was selected as a measure of economic activities, and BDI (Baltic Dry
Index) was chosen as a measure of dry bulk freight rates. The dataset covers
the years between 1985 and 2016 on annual basis and consists of 32 observations.
The relationship between variables was tried to be determined by correlation
and regression analysis. According to the results of the study, the positive
relationship between the variables was determine and the BDI's response to GDP
changes was found to be greater. These results confirm how risky the maritime
market is.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Baier, S. L. and Bergstrand, J. H. (2001) The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity. Journal of international Economics 53(1): 1-27.
- Bernanke, B. S. (2006) Global economic integration: what's new and what's not? (No. 226).
- Bloomberg Data Platform, Baltic Dry Index, Retrieved in 10.05.2017
- Brown, R. L., J. Durbin, and J. M. Evans (1975) Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 37: 149–192.
- Chang, M. (2014) Principles of Scientific Methods. CRC Press.
- Cowie, J. (2009) The Economics of Transport: A Theoretical and Applied Perspective. Routledge.
- Frankel, J. and Romer, D. (1999) Does trade cause growth?. American Economic Review, 89(3): 379-399.
- Geman, H. (Ed.). (2009) Risk Management in Commodity Markets: From Shipping to Agriculturals and Energy (Vol. 445). John Wiley & Sons.
- Grammenos, C. T. and Arkoulis, A. G. (2002) Macroeconomic factors and international shipping stock returns. International Journal of Maritime Economics 4(1):81-99.
- Gubbins, E J (1986) Shipping Industry: The Technology and Economics of Specialization Gordon and Breach Science Publishers. New York, London, Paris, Montreux and Tokyo.
- Gujarati, D. N. (2004) Basic Econometrics. Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
- Jacks, D. S. and Pendakur, K. (2010) Global trade and the maritime transport revolution. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4): 745-755.
- Kaycheng Soh (2016). Understanding Test And Exam Results Statistically: An Essential Guide For Teachers And School Leaders. Springer, Singapore
- Koopmans, T. C. (1939) Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building. Haarlem, Holland.
- Lin, F. and Sim, N. C. (2013) Trade, income and the Baltic Dry Index. European Economic Review 59: 1-18.
- Lundgren, N. G. (1996) Bulk trade and maritime transport costs: The evolution of global markets. Resources Policy 22(1-2): 5-32.
- N. Gregory Mankiw and Mark P. Taylor (2014) Economics (3.ed). USA: Cengage Learning.
- Stopford, M. (2009). Maritime Economics 3e. Routledge.
- Worldbank, World gross domestic product, Retrieved in 15.10.2017
Öz
Kuru dökme yük navlun piyasası, nihai ürünlerin
üretiminde kullanılan ham maddelerin taşımacılığının gerçekleştirildiği bir
piyasa olduğu için küresel ekonomik aktivitelerin en önemli göstergelerinden
biridir. Bu nedenle dünya ekonomisi deniz taşımacılığı için en önemli talep
faktörlerinden birdir. Ancak denizcilik piyasasında kısa dönemde arz
inelastiktir ve ani talep değişimlerine anında karşılık verememektedir ve
böylece piyasadaki navlunlar düşmektedir. Bu nedenle ekonomik aktivitelerdeki
ani artışlar ve azalışlar navlun piyasasında olağandışı gelir değişimlerine
neden olmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, ekonomik büyümenin navlun oranlarına olan
etkisi incelenmek için önemli bir konudur. Bu çalışma ekonomik büyümenin kuru
dökme yük piyasasına olan etkisini ampirik olarak inceleyerek mevcut literatüre
katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Dünya GSYİH (Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla)
değişkeni küresel ekonomik aktivitelerin bir ölçüsü olarak seçilmiştir, ve BKYE
(Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi) kuru dökme yük piyasasındaki navlun oranlarının bir
ölçüsü olarak seçilmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti 1985 ve 2016 yılları
arasını kapsayan yıllık bazda 32 gözlemden oluşmaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki
ilişki korelasyon ve regresyon analizleriyle tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır.
Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, değişkenler arasında pozitif anlamlı bir ilişki
olduğu ve BKYE’nin GDP’ye tepkisinin oldukça yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Bu sonuçlar denizcilik piyasasının ne kadar riskli bir piyasa olduğunu
doğrulamaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Baier, S. L. and Bergstrand, J. H. (2001) The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity. Journal of international Economics 53(1): 1-27.
- Bernanke, B. S. (2006) Global economic integration: what's new and what's not? (No. 226).
- Bloomberg Data Platform, Baltic Dry Index, Retrieved in 10.05.2017
- Brown, R. L., J. Durbin, and J. M. Evans (1975) Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 37: 149–192.
- Chang, M. (2014) Principles of Scientific Methods. CRC Press.
- Cowie, J. (2009) The Economics of Transport: A Theoretical and Applied Perspective. Routledge.
- Frankel, J. and Romer, D. (1999) Does trade cause growth?. American Economic Review, 89(3): 379-399.
- Geman, H. (Ed.). (2009) Risk Management in Commodity Markets: From Shipping to Agriculturals and Energy (Vol. 445). John Wiley & Sons.
- Grammenos, C. T. and Arkoulis, A. G. (2002) Macroeconomic factors and international shipping stock returns. International Journal of Maritime Economics 4(1):81-99.
- Gubbins, E J (1986) Shipping Industry: The Technology and Economics of Specialization Gordon and Breach Science Publishers. New York, London, Paris, Montreux and Tokyo.
- Gujarati, D. N. (2004) Basic Econometrics. Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
- Jacks, D. S. and Pendakur, K. (2010) Global trade and the maritime transport revolution. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4): 745-755.
- Kaycheng Soh (2016). Understanding Test And Exam Results Statistically: An Essential Guide For Teachers And School Leaders. Springer, Singapore
- Koopmans, T. C. (1939) Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building. Haarlem, Holland.
- Lin, F. and Sim, N. C. (2013) Trade, income and the Baltic Dry Index. European Economic Review 59: 1-18.
- Lundgren, N. G. (1996) Bulk trade and maritime transport costs: The evolution of global markets. Resources Policy 22(1-2): 5-32.
- N. Gregory Mankiw and Mark P. Taylor (2014) Economics (3.ed). USA: Cengage Learning.
- Stopford, M. (2009). Maritime Economics 3e. Routledge.
- Worldbank, World gross domestic product, Retrieved in 15.10.2017
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | İşletme |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Haziran 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1 |
