AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR LAFFER CURVE: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 84 - 99, 05.08.2018

Handan Kaynar Bilgin

Öz

In 1974, Arthur Laffer pointed out that reductions in tax rates would rise tax revenues while increments in tax rates decreases tax revenue. This argument has been defined as Laffer curve. Laffer curve has been popular in 1980s and various empirical studies have been introduced by then. For the most part of the studies, the results supporting Laffer curve have been obtained. In this article, the econometric models of Laffer curve for Turkey for the period of 1982-2016 were estimated. The models give similar results. The applications of the tax administration takes place on the normal side of the Laffer curve for the most part of the sample period. Therefore, the increases in tax rates will raise tax revenues. For the rest of the sample period, the increases of tax rate will not raise tax revenues

Anahtar Kelimeler

Laffer Curve, Taxation, Optimal Tax, Model Estimation

LAFFER EĞRİSİ İÇİN UYGULAMALI BİR ANALİZ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Arthur Laffer 1974 yılında vergi oranlarındaki indirimlerin vergi gelirlerini arttırırken vergi oranlarındaki artışların da vergi gelirlerini azaltacağı görüşünü dile getirmiştir. Bu fikir daha sonra bu Laffer eğrisi adıyla tanımlanmıştır. 1980’li yıllarda oldukça ilgi gören Laffer eğrisi ile ilgili pek çok uygulamalı çalışma yapılmış ve genel olarak bu görüşü destekleyen sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1982-2016 dönemini kapsayan Laffer eğrisi ekonometrik model tahminleri elde edilmiştir. Bu modellerden elde edilen bulgular benzer sonuçlar vermiştir. Vergi yönetiminin uygulamaları söz konusu dönemin önemli bir kısmında Laffer eğrisinin normal alanında yer almaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu dönemlerde vergi oranındaki artış vergi gelirlerini arttıracaktır. Bunun dışında kalan kısa aralıklı dönemlerde ise vergi oranını arttırmak vergi gelirlerini arttırmayacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Laffer Eğrisi, Vergileme, Optimal Vergi, Model Tahmini

Kaynakça

• Agbeyegbe, Terence., Stotsky, G. Janet., and WoldeMariam Asegedech (2004). “Trade Liberalization, Exchange Rate Changes, and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa”. IMF Working Paper, No: 04/178.
• Ballard, Charles., Fullerton, Don., Shoven, B. John., and Whalley, John (1985). The Relationship between Tax Rates and Government Revenue, in A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, Charles L.
• Ballard, Don Fullerton, John B. Shoven, John Whalley (Eds.). Bartlett, Bruce (2003). “Supply-Side Economics: “Voodoo Economics” or “Lasting Contribution”. Associates: Supply-Side Investment Research (November 11, 2003). Retrieved 2008-11-17.
• Becsi, Zsolt (2000). “The Shifty Laffer Curve”. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter, pp. 53-64.
• Beenstock, M., (1979) “Taxation and Incentives in the UK”, Lloyds Bank Review, No. 134, October, pp. 1-15
• Blinder, Alan. S (1981). “Thoughts on the Laffer Curve”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May 1981, pp. 81-92.
• Brunner, Karl (1982). “Is Supply-Side Economics Enough?”. Cato Journal, Vol: 2, Issue: 3, pp. 843-849.
• Busato, Francesco. and Chiarini, Bruno (2013). “Steady State Laffer Curve with the Underground Economy”. Public Finance Review, Vol: 41, Issue: 5, pp. 608-632.
• Dalamagas, Basil (1998). “Testing the Validity of the Laffer-Curve Hypothesis”. Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, No: 52, pp. 77-102.
• Derdiyok, T. (1993), Türkiye’nin Laffer Eğrisi, Maliye Dergisi, sayı: 112, Mart-Nisan, s. 26-39
• Doğan, S. (2002), “Türkiye İçin Laffer Eğrisi’nin Tahmini (1979-2000)”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt. 7, Sayı.2, s. 257-269
• Edizdoğan N. ve Çelikkaya, A. (2010), Vergilerin Ekonomik Analizi, Dora Yayınları, Bursa
• Engle, Robert.F. and Granger, C.W.J (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”. Econometrica, Vol:55, No:2, pp.251-276.
• Feige, Edgar. L. and McGee, Robert. T (1983). “Sweden’s Laffer Curve: Taxation and Unobserved Economy”. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol: 85(4), pp. 489-519. Fullerton, Don (1982). “On the Possibility of An Inverse Relationship Between Tax Rates and Government Revenues”. Journal of Public Economics, Vol: 19, No:1, pp. 3-22.
• Gupta, Abhijit, Sen (2007). “Determinants of Tax Revenue Efforts in Developing Countries”. IMF Working Paper, No:07/184.
• Heijman, W. J. M. and van Ophem, J. A. C (2005). “Willingness to Pay Tax: The Laffer Curve Revisited for 12 OECD Countries”. The Journal of Socio-Economics, Vol: 34, Issue: 5, pp. 714-723.
• Gutmann, Peter M. (1979), “Taxes and the Supply of National Output”, Financial Analysts Journal, November-December, pp.64-66
• Henderson, David (1981). “Limitations of the Laffer Curve as a Justification for Tax Cuts”. Cato Journal, Vol: 1, No: 1, pp. 45-52.
• Hsing, Yu (1996). “Estimating the Laffer Curve and Policy Implications”. Journal of SocioEconomics, Vol: 25, No: 3, pp. 395-401.
• Khandun, I (1980[1377]). “The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History”. Volume II, Translated by Franz Rosenthal, Princeton University Press: Princeton and New Jersey.
• Karas, Michal (2012). “Tax Rate to Maximize the Revenue: Laffer Curve for the Czech Republic”. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Vol: LX, Issue: 20, pp. 189-194.
• Karabulut, T., (2006), “Laffer Etkisinin Türkiye Uygulaması (1980-2003)”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Sayı: 16, s.367-379
• Laffer, Arthur B. (2004), “The Laffer Curve: Past, Present and Future”, The Heritage Foundation, No. 1765, June, pp. 1-16
• OECD, www.oecd.org, Erişim Tarihi: 24.12.2014
• Laffer, Arthur. B (1981). “Government Exactions and Revenue Deficiencies”. Cato Journal, Vol: 1, No: 1, pp. 1-21.
• Leuthold, Jane. H (1991). “Tax Shares in Developing Countries: A Panel Study”. Journal of Development Economics, Vol: 35, pp.173-185
• Mahdavi, Saeid (2008). “ The Leven and Composition of Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: Evidence from Unbalanced Panel Data”. International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol: 17(4), pp. 607- 617.
• Nutahara, Kengo (2013). Laffer Curves in Japan, The Canon Institute for Global Studies, CIGS Working Paper Series, No: 13-007(E), p. 1-30.
• Pecorino, Paul (1995). “Tax Rates and Tax Revenues in a Model of Growth through Human Capital Accumulation”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol: 36, pp. 527-539.
• Rosenthal, Ervin I. J. (1996), Ortaçağ’da İslam Siyaset Düşüncesi, (Çev. Ali Çaksu), İz Yayıncılık, İstanbul
• Sanyal, Amal., Gang, I. N., and Goswami, Omkar (2000). “Corruption, Tax Evasion and the Laffer Curve”. Public Choice, Vol: 105, pp. 61-78.
• Ulbrich, Holly H. (2011), Public Finance in Theory and Practice, Routledge, New York, Second Edition
• Wanniski, J. (1978), “Taxes, Revenues and the Laffer Curve”, The Public Interest, No: 50, pp. 3-16
• Yamak, N. ve Yamak, R., (1995), “Türkiye’nin Vergi Türlerine Göre Laffer Eğrisi”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt.6, Sonbahar, s. 51-65
• Yamak, R., (1996) “Türkiye'nin Laffer Egrisi: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Yöntemi”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt. 7 Sayı. 21, s. 27-38