The Inequality of Climate Change from 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming
Yıl 2018,
Sayı: 1, 29 - 35, 15.06.2018
Ferhan Can
Öz
The Paris Agreeement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1,5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the 1,5°C target to be adopted but who will suffer the largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here we show that exceeding the 1,5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes. Under these circumstances greater support for climate adaptation to prevent powerty growth would be required.
Kaynakça
-
Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production”, Nature,
527(7577), 235-239, https:/doi.org/10.1038/nature15725.
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Dellink, R.,Chateau, J., Lanzi, E.,& Magne, B. (2017). “Long-term eceonomic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 200-214, https:/doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.06.004.
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Frame, D., Joshi, M.,Hawkins, E., Harrington, L. J., & de Roiste, M. (2017). “Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates”,
Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 407-411, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297.
-
Harrington, L. J., Frame, D., J., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Joshi, M. & Jones, C., D. (2016). “Poorest countries experience earlier
anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes”, Enviromental Research Letters, 11(5), 55007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-
9326/11/5/055007.
-
Haustein, K., Allen, M. R., Forster, P. M., Otto, F. E. L., Mitchell, D. M., Matthews, H. D., & Frame, D. J. (2017). “A real-time Global
Warming Index”, Scientific Reports, 7(1), 15471, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5.
-
Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. (2012), “Time of emergence of climate signals”, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L01702, https://doi.
org/10.1029/2011GL050087.
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Henley, B., J. &King, A. D. (2017). “Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris Target: Modulation by the Interdecadel Pacific Oscillation”,
Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 4256-4262, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073480.
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Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G. & Williges, K. (2014), Funding public adaptation to climate-related disasters. Estimates
for a global fund, Global Environmental Change, 25, 87- 96, https://doi.org/10.1016/J GLOENVCHA. 2014.01.011.
-
King, A., D., Donat, M., G., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Alexander, L., V., Karoly, D., J., et al. (2015). The timing of anthropogenic
emergence in simulated climate extremes, Enviromental Research Letters, 10 (9), 94015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748.9326/10/9/0
94015.
-
King, A., D., Karoly, D., J., Henley, B., J. (2017). “Australian climate extremes at 1,5 and 2°C of global warming”, Nature Climate
Change, 7(6), 412-416, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296.
-
Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N. & Schwanitz, J. (2017). “Future growth patterns of world regions-A GDP scenario approach”,
Global Environmental Change, 42, 215-225, https://doi.org/10.1016/JGLOENVCHA.2015.02.005.
-
Mahlstein, I., Hegerl, G. & Solomon, S. (2012). “Emerging local warming signals in observational data, Geophysical Research
Letters”, 39, L21711, https://doi.org/10.1016/2012GL053952.
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Mahlstein, I., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Portmann, R., W. (2011). “Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries”,
Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), 34009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009.
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Mechler, R., Bouwer, L., M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S.,Aerts, J.C.J.H., Surminski, S. & Williges, K. (2014). “Managing
unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes, Nature Climate Change”, 4(4), 235-237, https://doi.org/ 10.1038/nclimate2137.
-
Millar, R. J., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Friedlingstein, P., Rogelj, J., Grubb, M. J., Matthews, H. D., et al. (2017). “Emissions budget and
pathways consistent with limiting warming 1,5°C, Nature Goescience”, 10(10), 741-747, https://doi.or/10.1038/ngeo3031.
-
Mora, C., Frazier, A. G., Longman, R. J., Dacks, R. S., Walton, M. M.,Tong, E. J., et al. (2017). “The projected timing of climate
departure from recent variability”, Nature, 502(7470), 183-187, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540.
-
Murakami, D. & Yamagata, Y. (2016). “Estimation og gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical
downscaling”, Retrieved from http://arxiv.ogr/abs/1610.09041.
-
Nilsson, M., griggs, D. & Visbeck, M, (2016). “Policy: Map the interactions between Sustainable Development Goals”, Nature,
534(7607), 320-322, https.//doi.org/10.1038/534320a.
-
Ourbak, T., & Magnan, A. K. (2017). “The Paris Agreement and climate change negotiations: Small islands, big players”, Regional
Environmental Change, 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1247-9.
-
Pradhan, P., Costa, L., Rybski, D., Lucht, W. & Kropp, J. P. (2017). “A systematic study of Sustsainable Development Goal (SDG)
interactions”, Earth’s Future, 5(11), 1169-1179, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000632.
-
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S, et al. (2017). “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
and their energy, land use and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overwiev”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 153-
168, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2016.05.009.
-
Rogelj, J., den Elzen M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., et al. (2016). “Paris Agreement climate proposals need a
boost to keep warming well below 2°C”, Nature, 534(7609), 631-639, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307.
-
Schleussner, C. F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., et al. (2016). “Diffrential climate impacts for
policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5°C and 2°C”, Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 327-351, https://doi.org/10.5194/
esd-7-327-2016.
-
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G., A. (2012). “An overview of CMIP5 and experiment design”, Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 93(4), 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS- D-11-00094.1.
-
United Nations (2015). “Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for Sustainable Development A/RES/70/1/1”, Retrieved
from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/21252030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment web.pdf.
1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK
Yıl 2018,
Sayı: 1, 29 - 35, 15.06.2018
Ferhan Can
Öz
Paris Anlaşması, sanayi devrimi öncesi seviyeden bugüne kadar artan küresel ısınmayı 2°C’nin altında tutmayı amaçlamaktadır. Hedefte tercih edilen, ısınma artışının 1,5°C seviyelerinde tutulmasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler, özellikle küçük ada ülkeleri, 1,5°C’lik hedef için baskı yapmaktadır. Bu hedefe ulaşılmadığında, iklimdeki büyük değişikliklerden en fazla kim etkilenecektir? Burada, 1,5°C’lik küresel ısınma hedefinin aşılmasının büyük yerel iklim değişikliklerinin yaşandığı yerlerde yoksulluğa yol açacağı gösterilmektedir. Bu koşullar altında yoksulluk artışını önlemek için en fazla desteğin iklim adaptasyonuna verilmesi gerekmektedir.
Kaynakça
-
Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production”, Nature,
527(7577), 235-239, https:/doi.org/10.1038/nature15725.
-
Dellink, R.,Chateau, J., Lanzi, E.,& Magne, B. (2017). “Long-term eceonomic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 200-214, https:/doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.06.004.
-
Frame, D., Joshi, M.,Hawkins, E., Harrington, L. J., & de Roiste, M. (2017). “Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates”,
Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 407-411, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297.
-
Harrington, L. J., Frame, D., J., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Joshi, M. & Jones, C., D. (2016). “Poorest countries experience earlier
anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes”, Enviromental Research Letters, 11(5), 55007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-
9326/11/5/055007.
-
Haustein, K., Allen, M. R., Forster, P. M., Otto, F. E. L., Mitchell, D. M., Matthews, H. D., & Frame, D. J. (2017). “A real-time Global
Warming Index”, Scientific Reports, 7(1), 15471, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5.
-
Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. (2012), “Time of emergence of climate signals”, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L01702, https://doi.
org/10.1029/2011GL050087.
-
Henley, B., J. &King, A. D. (2017). “Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris Target: Modulation by the Interdecadel Pacific Oscillation”,
Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 4256-4262, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073480.
-
Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G. & Williges, K. (2014), Funding public adaptation to climate-related disasters. Estimates
for a global fund, Global Environmental Change, 25, 87- 96, https://doi.org/10.1016/J GLOENVCHA. 2014.01.011.
-
King, A., D., Donat, M., G., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Alexander, L., V., Karoly, D., J., et al. (2015). The timing of anthropogenic
emergence in simulated climate extremes, Enviromental Research Letters, 10 (9), 94015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748.9326/10/9/0
94015.
-
King, A., D., Karoly, D., J., Henley, B., J. (2017). “Australian climate extremes at 1,5 and 2°C of global warming”, Nature Climate
Change, 7(6), 412-416, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296.
-
Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N. & Schwanitz, J. (2017). “Future growth patterns of world regions-A GDP scenario approach”,
Global Environmental Change, 42, 215-225, https://doi.org/10.1016/JGLOENVCHA.2015.02.005.
-
Mahlstein, I., Hegerl, G. & Solomon, S. (2012). “Emerging local warming signals in observational data, Geophysical Research
Letters”, 39, L21711, https://doi.org/10.1016/2012GL053952.
-
Mahlstein, I., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Portmann, R., W. (2011). “Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries”,
Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), 34009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009.
-
Mechler, R., Bouwer, L., M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S.,Aerts, J.C.J.H., Surminski, S. & Williges, K. (2014). “Managing
unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes, Nature Climate Change”, 4(4), 235-237, https://doi.org/ 10.1038/nclimate2137.
-
Millar, R. J., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Friedlingstein, P., Rogelj, J., Grubb, M. J., Matthews, H. D., et al. (2017). “Emissions budget and
pathways consistent with limiting warming 1,5°C, Nature Goescience”, 10(10), 741-747, https://doi.or/10.1038/ngeo3031.
-
Mora, C., Frazier, A. G., Longman, R. J., Dacks, R. S., Walton, M. M.,Tong, E. J., et al. (2017). “The projected timing of climate
departure from recent variability”, Nature, 502(7470), 183-187, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540.
-
Murakami, D. & Yamagata, Y. (2016). “Estimation og gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical
downscaling”, Retrieved from http://arxiv.ogr/abs/1610.09041.
-
Nilsson, M., griggs, D. & Visbeck, M, (2016). “Policy: Map the interactions between Sustainable Development Goals”, Nature,
534(7607), 320-322, https.//doi.org/10.1038/534320a.
-
Ourbak, T., & Magnan, A. K. (2017). “The Paris Agreement and climate change negotiations: Small islands, big players”, Regional
Environmental Change, 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1247-9.
-
Pradhan, P., Costa, L., Rybski, D., Lucht, W. & Kropp, J. P. (2017). “A systematic study of Sustsainable Development Goal (SDG)
interactions”, Earth’s Future, 5(11), 1169-1179, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000632.
-
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S, et al. (2017). “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
and their energy, land use and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overwiev”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 153-
168, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2016.05.009.
-
Rogelj, J., den Elzen M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., et al. (2016). “Paris Agreement climate proposals need a
boost to keep warming well below 2°C”, Nature, 534(7609), 631-639, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307.
-
Schleussner, C. F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., et al. (2016). “Diffrential climate impacts for
policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5°C and 2°C”, Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 327-351, https://doi.org/10.5194/
esd-7-327-2016.
-
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G., A. (2012). “An overview of CMIP5 and experiment design”, Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 93(4), 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS- D-11-00094.1.
-
United Nations (2015). “Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for Sustainable Development A/RES/70/1/1”, Retrieved
from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/21252030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment web.pdf.