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The Inequality of Climate Change from 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 1, 29 - 35, 15.06.2018

Öz

The Paris Agreeement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1,5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the 1,5°C target to be adopted but who will suffer the largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here we show that exceeding the 1,5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes. Under these circumstances greater support for climate adaptation to prevent powerty growth would be required.

Kaynakça

  • Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production”, Nature, 527(7577), 235-239, https:/doi.org/10.1038/nature15725.
  • Dellink, R.,Chateau, J., Lanzi, E.,& Magne, B. (2017). “Long-term eceonomic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 200-214, https:/doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.06.004.
  • Frame, D., Joshi, M.,Hawkins, E., Harrington, L. J., & de Roiste, M. (2017). “Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates”, Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 407-411, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297.
  • Harrington, L. J., Frame, D., J., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Joshi, M. & Jones, C., D. (2016). “Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes”, Enviromental Research Letters, 11(5), 55007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/11/5/055007.
  • Haustein, K., Allen, M. R., Forster, P. M., Otto, F. E. L., Mitchell, D. M., Matthews, H. D., & Frame, D. J. (2017). “A real-time Global Warming Index”, Scientific Reports, 7(1), 15471, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5.
  • Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. (2012), “Time of emergence of climate signals”, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L01702, https://doi. org/10.1029/2011GL050087.
  • Henley, B., J. &King, A. D. (2017). “Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris Target: Modulation by the Interdecadel Pacific Oscillation”, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 4256-4262, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073480.
  • Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G. & Williges, K. (2014), Funding public adaptation to climate-related disasters. Estimates for a global fund, Global Environmental Change, 25, 87- 96, https://doi.org/10.1016/J GLOENVCHA. 2014.01.011.
  • King, A., D., Donat, M., G., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Alexander, L., V., Karoly, D., J., et al. (2015). The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes, Enviromental Research Letters, 10 (9), 94015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748.9326/10/9/0 94015.
  • King, A., D., Karoly, D., J., Henley, B., J. (2017). “Australian climate extremes at 1,5 and 2°C of global warming”, Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 412-416, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296.
  • Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N. & Schwanitz, J. (2017). “Future growth patterns of world regions-A GDP scenario approach”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 215-225, https://doi.org/10.1016/JGLOENVCHA.2015.02.005.
  • Mahlstein, I., Hegerl, G. & Solomon, S. (2012). “Emerging local warming signals in observational data, Geophysical Research Letters”, 39, L21711, https://doi.org/10.1016/2012GL053952.
  • Mahlstein, I., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Portmann, R., W. (2011). “Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries”, Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), 34009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009.
  • Mechler, R., Bouwer, L., M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S.,Aerts, J.C.J.H., Surminski, S. & Williges, K. (2014). “Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes, Nature Climate Change”, 4(4), 235-237, https://doi.org/ 10.1038/nclimate2137.
  • Millar, R. J., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Friedlingstein, P., Rogelj, J., Grubb, M. J., Matthews, H. D., et al. (2017). “Emissions budget and pathways consistent with limiting warming 1,5°C, Nature Goescience”, 10(10), 741-747, https://doi.or/10.1038/ngeo3031.
  • Mora, C., Frazier, A. G., Longman, R. J., Dacks, R. S., Walton, M. M.,Tong, E. J., et al. (2017). “The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability”, Nature, 502(7470), 183-187, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540.
  • Murakami, D. & Yamagata, Y. (2016). “Estimation og gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling”, Retrieved from http://arxiv.ogr/abs/1610.09041.
  • Nilsson, M., griggs, D. & Visbeck, M, (2016). “Policy: Map the interactions between Sustainable Development Goals”, Nature, 534(7607), 320-322, https.//doi.org/10.1038/534320a.
  • Ourbak, T., & Magnan, A. K. (2017). “The Paris Agreement and climate change negotiations: Small islands, big players”, Regional Environmental Change, 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1247-9.
  • Pradhan, P., Costa, L., Rybski, D., Lucht, W. & Kropp, J. P. (2017). “A systematic study of Sustsainable Development Goal (SDG) interactions”, Earth’s Future, 5(11), 1169-1179, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000632.
  • Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S, et al. (2017). “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overwiev”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 153- 168, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2016.05.009.
  • Rogelj, J., den Elzen M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., et al. (2016). “Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C”, Nature, 534(7609), 631-639, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307.
  • Schleussner, C. F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., et al. (2016). “Diffrential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5°C and 2°C”, Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 327-351, https://doi.org/10.5194/ esd-7-327-2016.
  • Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G., A. (2012). “An overview of CMIP5 and experiment design”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(4), 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS- D-11-00094.1.
  • United Nations (2015). “Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for Sustainable Development A/RES/70/1/1”, Retrieved from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/21252030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment web.pdf.

1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 1, 29 - 35, 15.06.2018

Öz

Paris Anlaşması, sanayi devrimi öncesi seviyeden bugüne kadar artan küresel ısınmayı 2°C’nin altında tutmayı amaçlamaktadır. Hedefte tercih edilen, ısınma artışının 1,5°C seviyelerinde tutulmasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler, özellikle küçük ada ülkeleri, 1,5°C’lik hedef için baskı yapmaktadır. Bu hedefe ulaşılmadığında, iklimdeki büyük değişikliklerden en fazla kim etkilenecektir? Burada, 1,5°C’lik küresel ısınma hedefinin aşılmasının büyük yerel iklim değişikliklerinin yaşandığı yerlerde yoksulluğa yol açacağı gösterilmektedir. Bu koşullar altında yoksulluk artışını önlemek için en fazla desteğin iklim adaptasyonuna verilmesi gerekmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production”, Nature, 527(7577), 235-239, https:/doi.org/10.1038/nature15725.
  • Dellink, R.,Chateau, J., Lanzi, E.,& Magne, B. (2017). “Long-term eceonomic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 200-214, https:/doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.06.004.
  • Frame, D., Joshi, M.,Hawkins, E., Harrington, L. J., & de Roiste, M. (2017). “Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates”, Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 407-411, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297.
  • Harrington, L. J., Frame, D., J., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Joshi, M. & Jones, C., D. (2016). “Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes”, Enviromental Research Letters, 11(5), 55007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/11/5/055007.
  • Haustein, K., Allen, M. R., Forster, P. M., Otto, F. E. L., Mitchell, D. M., Matthews, H. D., & Frame, D. J. (2017). “A real-time Global Warming Index”, Scientific Reports, 7(1), 15471, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5.
  • Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. (2012), “Time of emergence of climate signals”, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L01702, https://doi. org/10.1029/2011GL050087.
  • Henley, B., J. &King, A. D. (2017). “Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris Target: Modulation by the Interdecadel Pacific Oscillation”, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 4256-4262, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073480.
  • Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G. & Williges, K. (2014), Funding public adaptation to climate-related disasters. Estimates for a global fund, Global Environmental Change, 25, 87- 96, https://doi.org/10.1016/J GLOENVCHA. 2014.01.011.
  • King, A., D., Donat, M., G., Fischer, E., M., Hawkins, E., Alexander, L., V., Karoly, D., J., et al. (2015). The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes, Enviromental Research Letters, 10 (9), 94015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748.9326/10/9/0 94015.
  • King, A., D., Karoly, D., J., Henley, B., J. (2017). “Australian climate extremes at 1,5 and 2°C of global warming”, Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 412-416, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296.
  • Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N. & Schwanitz, J. (2017). “Future growth patterns of world regions-A GDP scenario approach”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 215-225, https://doi.org/10.1016/JGLOENVCHA.2015.02.005.
  • Mahlstein, I., Hegerl, G. & Solomon, S. (2012). “Emerging local warming signals in observational data, Geophysical Research Letters”, 39, L21711, https://doi.org/10.1016/2012GL053952.
  • Mahlstein, I., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Portmann, R., W. (2011). “Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries”, Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), 34009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009.
  • Mechler, R., Bouwer, L., M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S.,Aerts, J.C.J.H., Surminski, S. & Williges, K. (2014). “Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes, Nature Climate Change”, 4(4), 235-237, https://doi.org/ 10.1038/nclimate2137.
  • Millar, R. J., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Friedlingstein, P., Rogelj, J., Grubb, M. J., Matthews, H. D., et al. (2017). “Emissions budget and pathways consistent with limiting warming 1,5°C, Nature Goescience”, 10(10), 741-747, https://doi.or/10.1038/ngeo3031.
  • Mora, C., Frazier, A. G., Longman, R. J., Dacks, R. S., Walton, M. M.,Tong, E. J., et al. (2017). “The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability”, Nature, 502(7470), 183-187, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540.
  • Murakami, D. & Yamagata, Y. (2016). “Estimation og gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling”, Retrieved from http://arxiv.ogr/abs/1610.09041.
  • Nilsson, M., griggs, D. & Visbeck, M, (2016). “Policy: Map the interactions between Sustainable Development Goals”, Nature, 534(7607), 320-322, https.//doi.org/10.1038/534320a.
  • Ourbak, T., & Magnan, A. K. (2017). “The Paris Agreement and climate change negotiations: Small islands, big players”, Regional Environmental Change, 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1247-9.
  • Pradhan, P., Costa, L., Rybski, D., Lucht, W. & Kropp, J. P. (2017). “A systematic study of Sustsainable Development Goal (SDG) interactions”, Earth’s Future, 5(11), 1169-1179, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000632.
  • Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S, et al. (2017). “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overwiev”, Global Environmental Change, 42, 153- 168, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2016.05.009.
  • Rogelj, J., den Elzen M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., et al. (2016). “Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C”, Nature, 534(7609), 631-639, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307.
  • Schleussner, C. F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., et al. (2016). “Diffrential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5°C and 2°C”, Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 327-351, https://doi.org/10.5194/ esd-7-327-2016.
  • Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G., A. (2012). “An overview of CMIP5 and experiment design”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(4), 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS- D-11-00094.1.
  • United Nations (2015). “Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for Sustainable Development A/RES/70/1/1”, Retrieved from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/21252030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment web.pdf.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Çevre Bilimleri
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ferhan Can

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Haziran 2018
Kabul Tarihi 30 Mayıs 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Can, F. (2018). 1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK. Doğanın Sesi(1), 29-35.
AMA Can F. 1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK. Doğanın Sesi. Haziran 2018;(1):29-35.
Chicago Can, Ferhan. “1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK”. Doğanın Sesi, sy. 1 (Haziran 2018): 29-35.
EndNote Can F (01 Haziran 2018) 1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK. Doğanın Sesi 1 29–35.
IEEE F. Can, “1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK”, Doğanın Sesi, sy. 1, ss. 29–35, Haziran 2018.
ISNAD Can, Ferhan. “1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK”. Doğanın Sesi 1 (Haziran 2018), 29-35.
JAMA Can F. 1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK. Doğanın Sesi. 2018;:29–35.
MLA Can, Ferhan. “1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK”. Doğanın Sesi, sy. 1, 2018, ss. 29-35.
Vancouver Can F. 1,5 İLE 2°C ARASINDAKİ KÜRESEL ISINMANIN, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNDE YARATTIĞI EŞİTSİZLİK. Doğanın Sesi. 2018(1):29-35.