Mersin’in Farklı Kuraklık İndeksleri Aracılığıyla Kuraklık Tehdidinin Araştırılması

Year 2024, Volume: 24 Issue: 1, 71 - 84, 27.02.2024

Mehmet Özgür Çelik Murat Yakar

https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1331753

Abstract

Dünya genelinde küresel iklim değişikliğinin etkileri giderek artmaktadır. Akdeniz havzasında bulunan yerler için küresel iklim değişikliğinin temel olumsuz etkileri arasında kuraklık gelmektedir. Çalışma alanı Türkiye’nin güneyinde Akdeniz havzasında yer alan Mersin’dir ve kuraklık tehdidi altındadır. Bu yüzden, çalışma alanın kuraklık analizi farklı kuraklık indeksleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bunun için iklimsel verileri kullanan Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ve Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) standart kuraklık indeksleri tercih edilmiştir. Bu indeksler kuraklık analizinde standart kabul edilmektedir. Söz konusu indeksler hesaplanmış ve grafikler oluşturulmuştur. Buna göre, Mersin’in kuraklık analizi gerçekleştirilmiş ve kuraklık riski altında olduğu saptanmıştır. Ayrıca, gelecek yıllardaki olası durumu tahmin edilmiştir.

Keywords

Kuraklık, PDSI, PHDI, SPI, SPEI, Akdeniz havzası, Mersin

Investigation of Mersin’s Drought-Threat through Different Drought Indexes

Abstract

Global climate change is having a growing impact all around the world. Drought is one of the most destructive effects of global climate change in the Mediterranean basin. The study area is Mersin, which is located in southern Türkiye and is threatened by drought. Therefore, a drought analysis of the research area was conducted. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were chosen as drought indices that employ climatic data. The indices are considered standard indices in drought analysis. The indices were calculated, and graphs were created. As a result, it was concluded that Mersin is at risk of drought. The prospective condition in the future was also forecasted

Keywords

Drought, PDSI, PHDI, SPI, SPEI, Mediterranean basin, Mersin

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