ERA5 ve MERRA-2 Yeniden Analiz Veri Setlerinin Ege Bölgesi Genelinde Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2024, Volume: 26 Issue: 76, 9 - 21, 23.01.2024

Gülşah Tulger Kara Tolga Elbir

https://doi.org/10.21205/deufmd.2024267602

Abstract

Yeniden analiz verileri, bir bölgedeki iklim verisini saatlik bazda tanımladıkları için atmosfer bilimlerinde en yaygın kullanılan veri setleri arasında yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada beşinci nesil Avrupa Orta Menzilli Hava Tahmini Merkezi (ECMWF) küresel iklimin atmosferik yeniden analizi (ERA5) ve Araştırma ve Uygulamalar için Modern Çağ Retrospektif Analizi, sürüm 2 (MERRA2) olmak üzere iki yeniden analiz veri seti, 1963–2020 döneminde Türkiye'nin Ege Bölgesi'nde yerden 2 m yükseklikte hava sıcaklığı, ortalama deniz seviyesi basıncı ve rüzgar hızı parametreleri için değerlendirilmiştir. Saatlik yeniden analiz verileri bölgede bulunan 20 meteoroloji istasyonundan elde edilen gözlemlerle karşılaştırılmıştır. Veri kümelerinin performanslarını değerlendirmek için ortalama hataların karekökü (RMSE), korelasyon katsayısı (R) ve ortalama sapma hatası (MBE) gibi çeşitli istatistiksel parametreler kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, hava sıcaklığının ve ortalama deniz seviyesi basıncının, bölgedeki MERRA-2 yeniden analiz verileri ile daha iyi temsil edildiğini, buna karşın ERA5 yeniden analiz verileri ile rüzgar hızının daha başarılı temsil edildiğini göstermiştir. Ortalama deniz seviyesi basıncı için daha yüksek R değerine (>0,98) ve daha düşük RMSE değerine sahip olan MERRA-2, 11 istasyonda daha iyi performans göstermiştir. Hava sıcaklığı için genel olarak yüksek bir R değerine (>0,94) sahip olan MERRA-2 yeniden analiz veri seti, 12 istasyonda daha iyi performans göstermiştir. Bölgedeki rüzgar hızı için ERA5 veri setinin genel R değeri 0,58 olup ERA5 ile rüzgar hızı için 13 istasyonda daha başarılı bir performans elde edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, seçilen parametrelerde hangi veri setinin bölgeyi daha iyi temsil ettiğini göstermesi açısından bir kılavuz niteliği taşımaktadır.

Keywords

Yeniden analiz, MERRA-2, ERA5, hava sıcaklığı, ortalama deniz seviyesi basıncı, rüzgar hızı

Evaluation of ERA5 and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Datasets over the Aegean Region, Türkiye

Abstract

Reanalysis products are among the most-used datasets in the atmospheric sciences since they comprehensively describe the observed climate at sub-daily intervals in a region. Two reanalysis datasets, namely, the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis of global climate (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2), were evaluated for the representation of air temperature at 2 m, mean sea level pressure and wind speed over the Aegean Region of Türkiye during the period 1963–2020. Hourly reanalysis data were compared with observations in 19 meteorological stations in the region. Several statistical parameters, such as root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), and mean bias error (MBE), were used to evaluate the performances of the datasets. The results indicated that air temperature and mean sea level pressure are generally better represented by the MERRA-2 reanalysis in the region, whereas the ERA5 reanalysis dataset better represents wind speed. MERRA-2 had lower RMSE and slightly better performance at 11 stations with high R (>0.98) for mean sea level pressure. The MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset had a high overall R (>0.94) for air temperature and performed better at 12 stations. The overall regional R-value for the ERA5 wind speed dataset was 0.58, and ERA5 showed better performance at 13 individual stations for wind speed. Our results guide which reanalysis dataset better represents the regional climate characteristics for selected parameters.

Keywords

Reanalysis, MERRA-2, ERA5, air temperature, sea level pressure, wind speed

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