The Causality Relationship Between Marriage and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey

Year 2023, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 71 - 81, 27.06.2023

Emre Bulut

Abstract

Man is a social being who, by nature, cannot live alone and needs other people. When evaluated in the context of male-female relations, one of the ways to establish a togetherness between couples is the marriage of the parties. Healthy marriages can lead to emergence strong families and strong societies in every field. Marriage allows the family, which is the smallest building block that constitutes a society, to be officially established and to have children in the following years of marriage, thus increasing the population of the country and thus the production and employment levels. Ensuring the continuity of the family necessitates the joint taking of basic economic decisions such as consumption and investment. Since these decisions also affect growth, the relationship between marriage and economic growth needs to be examined. From this point of view, the aim of the study is to reveal the causal relationship between marriage and economic growth. In the study, where marriage is represented by the number of marriages and economic growth is also represented by Gross Domestic Product, a Granger causality test based on the VAR system was conducted by using the quarterly data for the 2001-2021 period in Turkey as a percentage change compared to same quarter in previous year. According to the empirical results obtained; A bidirectional causality relationship was found between marriage and growth at the 5% significance level. That is, while marriage is the Granger cause of economic growth, economic growth is also the Granger cause of marriage. This result reveals that union of marriage can have positive effects on the Turkish economy and that economic growth can enable individuals to get married.

Keywords

Marriage, Family, Consumption, Investment, Economic Growth, Turkey

Türkiye’de Evlenme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

İnsan yaradılışı gereği hayatı boyunca tek başına yaşayamayan ve diğer insanlara ihtiyaç duyan sosyal bir varlıktır. Kadın-erkek ilişkileri bağlamında değerlendirildiğinde çiftler arasındaki birlikteliği kurmanın yollarından bir tanesi tarafların evlenmeleridir. Sağlıklı şekilde yapılan evlilikler güçlü ailelerin ve her alanda güçlü toplumların ortaya çıkmasını sağlayabilmektedir. Evlenme toplumu oluşturan en küçük yapı taşı olan ailenin resmi anlamda kurulmasına ve evliliğin ilerleyen yıllarında çocuk sahibi olunmasıyla ülke nüfusunun dolayısıyla da üretim ve istihdam seviyelerinin artmasına olanak sağlamaktadır. Ailenin devamlılığının sağlanması ise tüketim ve yatırım gibi temel ekonomik kararların ortak şekilde alınmasını zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu kararların da büyümeyi etkilemesinden dolayı evlenme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin irdelenmesi gerekmektedir. Buradan hareketle çalışmanın amacı, evlenme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya koymaktır. Evlenmenin, evlenme sayıları ve ekonomik büyümenin de Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ile temsil edildiği çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2001-2021 dönemi için üçer aylık veriler bir önceki yılın aynı çeyreğine göre değişim oranı olarak kullanılarak VAR sistemine dayalı Granger nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik sonuçlara göre; %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde evlenme ve büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Yani evlenme ekonomik büyümenin Granger nedeni iken ekonomik büyüme de evlenmenin Granger nedenidir. Bu sonuç evlilik birliğinin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerinde olumlu etkilere sahip olabileceğini ve ekonomik büyümenin de bireylerin evlenmelerine imkan tanıyabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Evlenme, Aile, Tüketim, Yatırım, Ekonomik Büyüme, Türkiye

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