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Türkiye'nin Mali Tepki Fonksiyonunun Tahmin Edilmesi: Sıralı Probit Yaklaşımı

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 64 - 74, 30.06.2022

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın iki temel amacı vardır. Birincisi, 2006:1-2020:3 döneminde Türkiye için bir mali duruş endeksi hesaplamak ve böylece maliye politikasının örneklem dönemindeki tutumunu ortaya koymaktır. İkincisi, mali duruş endeksinden hareketle, bir maliye politikası tepki fonksiyonu tahmin etmektir. Sıralı probit modelini kullanarak elde edilen bulgulara göre, nispeten mali disiplinin sağlandığı ve TCMB’nin açık enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini takip ettiği 2006:1-2020:3 döneminde maliye politikası genellikle genişletici nitelikte uygulanmış ve herhangi bir kurallı bir maliye politikası takip edilmemiştir. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de maliye politikasının duruma koşullu olarak uygulandığını ve para otoritesinin tutumundan bağımsız bir davranış sergilediğini göstermesi bakımından önemlidir.

References

  • Aklan, N. A., & Nargelecekenler, M. (2008). Taylor rule in practice: Evidence from Turkey. International Advances in Economic Research, 14(2), 156-166.
  • Albanico, A. & Paccagnini, A. (2016). In search of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance, UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series. WP16/12.
  • Alesina, A., Campante, F. R., & Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is fiscal policy often procyclical? Journal of the european economic association, 6(5), 1006-1036.
  • Andrašić, J., Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., Milenković, N., & Pjanić, M. (2018). Econometric Modelling of Tax Impact on Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from OECD Countries. Economic Computation & Economic Cybernetics Studies & Research, 52(4).
  • Bohn, H. (1998). The behavior of US public debt and deficits. the Quarterly Journal of economics, 113(3), 949-963.
  • Budina, N., ve S. van Wijnbergen (2008). “Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001”. The World Bank Economic Review 23(1): 119–40.
  • Burger, P., Stuart, I., Jooste, C., & Cuevas, A. (2011). Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2011/069/article-A001-en.xml
  • Cette, G. & P. Jaillet (1998), L'évaluation du Policy-mix: du bon usage de quelques indicateurs, Note de banque de France: miméo, Janvier.
  • Checherita-Westphal, C., & Žďárek, V. (2017). Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area (No. 2036). ECB Working Paper.
  • Clark, T. & Dilnot, A. (2002). Measuring the UK Fiscal Stance since Second World War, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, 26.
  • Davig, T., & Leeper, E. M. (2008). Endogenous monetary policy regime change. In NBER international seminar on macroeconomics 2006 (pp. 345-391). University of Chicago Press.
  • Dökmen, G., & Arınç, B. (2017). Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğe Teorik Bir Yaklaşım: Mali Tepki Fonksiyonu. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(4), 85-106.
  • Evans, O., Adeniji, S., Nwaogwugwu, I., Kelikume, I., Dakare, O., & Oke, O. (2018). The relative effect of monetary and fiscal policy on economic development in Africa: a GMM approach to the St. Louis equation. Business and Economic Quarterly, 2, 3-23.
  • Favero, C., T. Monacelli (2005) “Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime (In)Stability: Evidence from the U.S.”, IGIER Working Paper, No: 282.
  • Gali, J., R. Perotti (2003) “Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe”, NBER Working Paper, No: 9773.
  • Garcia, S., & Verdelhan, A. (2001). Le policy-mix de la zone euro. Economie prevision, (2), 23-40.
  • Garnaut, R. (2005). Is macroeconomics dead? Monetary and fiscal policy in historical context. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(4), 524-531.
  • Günaydın, İ., & Levent Y. E. (2009). Maliye Politikasında Yeni Trend: Mali Kurallar. Maliye Dergisi, (156), 51-64.
  • Hercowitz, Z., & Strawczynski, M. (2004). Cyclical ratcheting in government spending: Evidence from the OECD. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(1), 353-361.
  • Ikikii, S. M. (2017). Fiscal policy reaction function for Kenya. Developing Country Studies, 7(6), 12-18.
  • İlgün, M. F. (2016). “Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Oecd Ülkelerine Yönelik Panel Veri Analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(1): 69-90.
  • Kearny, I. (2012). Measuring Fiscal Stance: 2009-2012, Quarterly Economic Commently.
  • L'Angevin, C., & Montagné, F. (2006). Le policy-mix en zone euro et aux États-Unis de 1999 à aujourd'hui. Economie prevision, (2), 179-186.
  • Leeper, E. M. (1991). Equilibria under ‘active’ and ‘passive’ monetary and fiscal policies. Journal of monetary Economics, 27(1), 129-147.
  • Leith, C., & Wren-Lewis, S. (2005). Fiscal stabilization policy and fiscal institutions. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(4), 584-597.
  • Mugableh, M. I. (2019). Fiscal policy tools and economic growth in Jordan: Evidence from time-series models. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 11(1), 1-7.
  • Özer, M., & Karagöl, V. (2018). Relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on output growth in Turkey: an ARDL bounds test approach. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 13(3), 391-409.
  • Polito, V. & Wickens, M. (2008). Measuring the Fiscal Stance, The University of York Discussion Papers in Economics, No: 2007/14.
  • Polito, V. & Wickens, M. (2012). A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance, European Economic Review, 56: 526-551.
  • Shahid, A., Somia, I, & Asghar, A. (2008). Whether Fiscal Stance or Monetary Policy is Effective for Economic Growth in Case of South Asian Countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 47:4.
  • Solow, R. M. (2005). Rethinking fiscal policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(4), 509-514.
  • Turan, T., & Telatar, E. (2013). Türkiye İçin Sabit Ve Zaman Değişken Katsayılı Ampirik Mali Kural Tahminleri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(1), 225-248.
  • Turan, T. (2013). “Türkiye’de Maliye Politikası Konjoktür Yanlısı Mı?”. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 32(2): 123-140.
  • Uctum, M., Thurston, T., & Uctum, R. (2006). Public debt, the unit root hypothesis and structural breaks: a multi‐country analysis. Economica, 73(289), 129-156.

Estimating Turkey's Fiscal Reaction Function: The Ordered Probit Approach

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 64 - 74, 30.06.2022

Abstract

This study has two main objectives. The first is to calculate a fiscal stance index for Turkey in the period 2006: 1-2020: 3 and thus reveal the fiscal policy stance in the sampling period. The second is to estimate a fiscal policy reaction function based on the fiscal stance index. According to the findings obtained using the ordinal probit technique, in the period of 2006: 1-2020: 3, when relatively fiscal discipline was ensured and the CBRT followed the explicit inflation targeting regime, fiscal policy has generally applied in an expansionary stance and no fiscal rule has followed. This result is important in terms of showing that the fiscal policy in Turkey is applied cyclical and acts independently from the monetary authority.

References

  • Aklan, N. A., & Nargelecekenler, M. (2008). Taylor rule in practice: Evidence from Turkey. International Advances in Economic Research, 14(2), 156-166.
  • Albanico, A. & Paccagnini, A. (2016). In search of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance, UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series. WP16/12.
  • Alesina, A., Campante, F. R., & Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is fiscal policy often procyclical? Journal of the european economic association, 6(5), 1006-1036.
  • Andrašić, J., Kalaš, B., Mirović, V., Milenković, N., & Pjanić, M. (2018). Econometric Modelling of Tax Impact on Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from OECD Countries. Economic Computation & Economic Cybernetics Studies & Research, 52(4).
  • Bohn, H. (1998). The behavior of US public debt and deficits. the Quarterly Journal of economics, 113(3), 949-963.
  • Budina, N., ve S. van Wijnbergen (2008). “Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001”. The World Bank Economic Review 23(1): 119–40.
  • Burger, P., Stuart, I., Jooste, C., & Cuevas, A. (2011). Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2011/069/article-A001-en.xml
  • Cette, G. & P. Jaillet (1998), L'évaluation du Policy-mix: du bon usage de quelques indicateurs, Note de banque de France: miméo, Janvier.
  • Checherita-Westphal, C., & Žďárek, V. (2017). Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area (No. 2036). ECB Working Paper.
  • Clark, T. & Dilnot, A. (2002). Measuring the UK Fiscal Stance since Second World War, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, 26.
  • Davig, T., & Leeper, E. M. (2008). Endogenous monetary policy regime change. In NBER international seminar on macroeconomics 2006 (pp. 345-391). University of Chicago Press.
  • Dökmen, G., & Arınç, B. (2017). Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğe Teorik Bir Yaklaşım: Mali Tepki Fonksiyonu. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(4), 85-106.
  • Evans, O., Adeniji, S., Nwaogwugwu, I., Kelikume, I., Dakare, O., & Oke, O. (2018). The relative effect of monetary and fiscal policy on economic development in Africa: a GMM approach to the St. Louis equation. Business and Economic Quarterly, 2, 3-23.
  • Favero, C., T. Monacelli (2005) “Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime (In)Stability: Evidence from the U.S.”, IGIER Working Paper, No: 282.
  • Gali, J., R. Perotti (2003) “Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe”, NBER Working Paper, No: 9773.
  • Garcia, S., & Verdelhan, A. (2001). Le policy-mix de la zone euro. Economie prevision, (2), 23-40.
  • Garnaut, R. (2005). Is macroeconomics dead? Monetary and fiscal policy in historical context. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(4), 524-531.
  • Günaydın, İ., & Levent Y. E. (2009). Maliye Politikasında Yeni Trend: Mali Kurallar. Maliye Dergisi, (156), 51-64.
  • Hercowitz, Z., & Strawczynski, M. (2004). Cyclical ratcheting in government spending: Evidence from the OECD. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(1), 353-361.
  • Ikikii, S. M. (2017). Fiscal policy reaction function for Kenya. Developing Country Studies, 7(6), 12-18.
  • İlgün, M. F. (2016). “Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Oecd Ülkelerine Yönelik Panel Veri Analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(1): 69-90.
  • Kearny, I. (2012). Measuring Fiscal Stance: 2009-2012, Quarterly Economic Commently.
  • L'Angevin, C., & Montagné, F. (2006). Le policy-mix en zone euro et aux États-Unis de 1999 à aujourd'hui. Economie prevision, (2), 179-186.
  • Leeper, E. M. (1991). Equilibria under ‘active’ and ‘passive’ monetary and fiscal policies. Journal of monetary Economics, 27(1), 129-147.
  • Leith, C., & Wren-Lewis, S. (2005). Fiscal stabilization policy and fiscal institutions. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(4), 584-597.
  • Mugableh, M. I. (2019). Fiscal policy tools and economic growth in Jordan: Evidence from time-series models. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 11(1), 1-7.
  • Özer, M., & Karagöl, V. (2018). Relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on output growth in Turkey: an ARDL bounds test approach. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 13(3), 391-409.
  • Polito, V. & Wickens, M. (2008). Measuring the Fiscal Stance, The University of York Discussion Papers in Economics, No: 2007/14.
  • Polito, V. & Wickens, M. (2012). A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance, European Economic Review, 56: 526-551.
  • Shahid, A., Somia, I, & Asghar, A. (2008). Whether Fiscal Stance or Monetary Policy is Effective for Economic Growth in Case of South Asian Countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 47:4.
  • Solow, R. M. (2005). Rethinking fiscal policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 21(4), 509-514.
  • Turan, T., & Telatar, E. (2013). Türkiye İçin Sabit Ve Zaman Değişken Katsayılı Ampirik Mali Kural Tahminleri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(1), 225-248.
  • Turan, T. (2013). “Türkiye’de Maliye Politikası Konjoktür Yanlısı Mı?”. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 32(2): 123-140.
  • Uctum, M., Thurston, T., & Uctum, R. (2006). Public debt, the unit root hypothesis and structural breaks: a multi‐country analysis. Economica, 73(289), 129-156.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Metin Tetik 0000-0003-2741-7175

Reşat Ceylan 0000-0002-0633-4525

Görkem Kara This is me 0000-0001-7224-8759

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Tetik, M., Ceylan, R., & Kara, G. (2022). Türkiye’nin Mali Tepki Fonksiyonunun Tahmin Edilmesi: Sıralı Probit Yaklaşımı. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 7(1), 64-74.

JOEEP is published as two issues per year June and December and all publication policies and processes are conducted according to the international standards. JOEEP accepts and publishes the research articles in the fields of economics, political economy, fiscal economics, applied economics, business economics, labour economics and econometrics. JOEEP, without depending on any institution or organization, is a non-profit journal that has an International Editorial Board specialist on their fields. All “Publication Process” and “Writing Guidelines” are explained in the related title and it is expected from authors to Show a complete match to the rules. JOEEP is an open Access journal.