D-8 Ülkeleri İçin Karbondioksit Emisyonun Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Tahmin Edilmesi: Levenberg-Marquardt Algoritması

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 59, 363 - 382, 31.01.2024

Ayşe Çay Atalay

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.16

Abstract

Son yıllarda büyüme, kalkınma ve sürdürülebilirlik odaklı yaşam tarzı özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ayrı bir sorunsalı oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 1990-2020 yılları arasında tamamı gelişmekte olan ülkelerden oluşan D8 ülkeleri (Endonezya, Bangladeş, İran, Mısır, Malezya, Pakistan, Nijerya ve Türkiye) için kişi başı GSYH, kişi başı enerji tüketimi (yenilenebilir, fosil, toplam), kentsel nüfus artışı ve karbondioksit emisyonu, verileri kullanılarak yapay sinir ağları (YSA) yöntemi ile ülkelere ait karbondioksit emisyonu oranları tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada kurulan YSA modelinde veri tabanı verilerinin rastgele olarak %70’i eğitim, %15’i doğrulama ve %15’i test verilerine ayrılmıştır. Oluşturulan bu yapay sinir ağı, Levenberg-Marquardt algoritması ile eğitilmiştir. Modelin performans göstergelerinden Regresyon R değerleri eğitim verileri için 0,99, doğrulama verileri için 0,97 ve test verileri için 0,99 olarak belirlenmiştir. Modelde kullanılan tüm veriler için regresyon R değeri 0,99 olarak belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

D8 Ülkeleri, Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA), Levenberg-Marquardt Yöntemi, Karbondioksit Emisyonu

Supporting Institution

HAYIR

Project Number

HAYIR

Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emissions for D-8 Countries by Artificial Neural Networks: Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm

Abstract

In recent years, growth, development, and sustainability-oriented lifestyles have created a separate problem, especially for developing countries. In this study, GDP per capita, energy consumption per capita (renewable, fossil, total), and urban population for D-8 countries (Indonesia, Bangladesh, Iran, Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Türkiye), all of which are developing countries, between 1990 and 2020. The carbon dioxide emission rates of the countries were estimated using the artificial neural networks (ANN) method by using the data of increase and carbon dioxide emission. In the ANN model established in the study, 70% of the database data was randomly divided into training, 15% validation and 15% test data. This artificial neural network is trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Regression R values, one of the performance indicators of the model, were determined as 0,99 for training data, 0,97 for validation data and 0,99 for test data. The regression R-value for all data used in the model was determined as 0,99.

Keywords

D8 Countries, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Levenberg-Marquardt Method, Carbon Dioxide Emission

Project Number

HAYIR

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