Türkiye’de Sığır Et Üretim Miktarı ve Ortalama Et Fiyatı Arasında İlişki Gecikmesinin Koyck Modeli ile Analizi

Year 2024, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 342 - 346, 30.04.2024

İsmail Gök Mustafa Şahin

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1397617

Abstract

Bu araştırma, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından yayınlamış olan 2001-2018 yılları arasında istatistiksel tablolardan elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen tablolarda kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretim miktarı bağımlı değişkeni temsil ederken ortalama etinin fiyatı da bağımsız değişkeni temsil etmektedir. Bağımlı değişken ile bağımsız değişken arasındaki ilişki gecikmesinin belirlenebilmesi için de Koyck modeli yardımıyla analiz yapılmıştır.
Araştırma sonucunda, ortalama etin fiyatı geriye doğru en fazla iki yılda kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretim miktarından etkilendiği, kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretim miktarında meydana gelen bir değişim et fiyatını önemli bir derecede etkilemesi için 0.007 yıl geçmesi gerektiği bulunmuştur. Ayrıca t yılında kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretimindeki 1 tonluk bir artış et fiyatını 0.994390 oranında arttırmakta, t-1 dönemde et üretimindeki 1 tonluk bir artış et fiyatını 0.007731 oranında arttırmakta olduğu yapılan analiz ile belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvan et üretimi, Koyck modeli, ortalama et fiyatları, yıllar

Analysis of the Relationship Lag Between Beef Production Amount and Average Meat Price in Turkey Using the Koyck Model

Abstract

This research was obtained from statistical tables published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) between 2001 and 2018. In the resulting tables, the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle represents the dependent variable, while the average meat price represents the independent variable. Analysis was carried out with the help of the Koyck model to determine the relationship lag between the dependent variable and the independent variable.
As a result of the research, it was found that the average meat price was affected by the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle in a maximum of two years, and that a change in the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle required 0.007 years to significantly affect the meat price. In addition, it was determined by the analysis that a 1 ton increase in the meat production of slaughtered cattle in year t increases the meat price by 0.994390, and a 1 ton increase in meat production in the t-1 period increases the meat price by 0.007731.

Keywords

Slaughtered cattle meat production, Koyck model, average meat prices, years.

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