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ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ

Year 2019, Volume: 17 Issue: 4, 200 - 213, 30.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.631141

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Dünya Bankası’nın
sınıflandırmasına göre yüksek-orta gelirli ülke grubundan seçilen 8 ülke için (Azerbaycan,
Bulgaristan, Belarus, Kazakistan, Makedonya, Romanya, Rusya ve Türkiye) Orta
Gelir Tuzağı Hipotezi test edilmiştir. 1990-2016 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada ilk
olarak Woo (2012) tarafından geliştirilen Yakalama Endeksi Yaklaşımı’na göre
ülkelerin kişi başına düşen gelirlerinin (Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Yaklaşımına
göre) ABD kişi başına düşen gelirine olan oranı hesaplanmıştır. Oluşturulan bu
yakalama endeksi verisinin durağanlık analizi ise Carrion-i-Silvestre vd.
(2005) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal kırılmalı panel birim kök testi ile yapılmıştır.
Panel birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre ülkelere ait yakalama endeksi serileri
durağan çıkmamış ve analiz kapsamındaki ülkelerin orta gelir tuzağında
olmadıkları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

References

  • Agénor, P. R., Canuto, O. ve Jelenic, M. (2012) “Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps”, The World Bank Economic Premise, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, 98: 1-7.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (1998) “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66(1): 47-78.
  • Baltagi, B. (2008) “Econometrica”, Fourth Edition, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,USA.
  • Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980) “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Review of Economic Studies, 47: 239-53.
  • Bozkurt, E., Sevinç, H. ve Çakmak, E. (2016) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Üst Orta Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi”, Ege Academic Review, 16(2): 379-394.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Barrio-Castro, T. D. ve Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005) “Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita”, Econometrics Journal, 8: 159-175.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., ve Shin, K. (2012) “When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”, Asian Economic Papers, 11(1): 42-87.
  • Felipe, J., Abdon, A., ve Kumar, U. (2012) “Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper, 715: 1-59.
  • Gill, I. S., ve Kharas, H. (2007) “An East Asian renaissance: ideas for economic growth”, The World Bank.
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M. S. (2011) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranı mı? İşsizlik Histerisi mi? Türkiye İçin Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2): 205-215.
  • Hadri, K. (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panel Data”, The Econometrics Journal, 3(2): 148-161.
  • Kharas, H., ve Kohli, H. (2011) “What is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How can It Be Avoided?”, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3): 281-289.
  • Manga, M., Ballı, E. ve Güreşçi, G. (2019) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 59: 48-60.
  • Ohno, K. (2009) “Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(1): 25-43.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, CESifo Working Paper, 1229: 1-40.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007) “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence”. Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008) “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1): 105-127.
  • Robertson, P. E., ve Ye, L. (2013) “On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap”, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper, 13.12: 1-18.
  • Şahin, H. (2014) “Türkiye Ekonomisi”, 14. Baskı, Bursa: Ezgi Kitabevi.
  • Tarı, R., Koç, S. ve Abasız, T. (2019) ‘‘Ekonometri’’, 14. Baskı, Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tho, T. V. (2013) “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations” VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2): 107-128.
  • Tıraşoğlu, M., ve Karasaç, F. (2018) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında E7 Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme”, Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 13(2): 337-361.
  • Tiftikçigil, B. Y., Güriş, B. ve Yaşgül, Y. S. (2018) “Does Middle Income Trap Exist?: Evidence from Emerging Economies: E7 Countries for 1969-2015”, Revista Galega de Economía, 27(1): 145-158.
  • Ünlü, F. ve Yıldız, R. (2018) “Orta Gelir Tuzağının Belirlenmesi: Ekonometrik Analiz”. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 14(1), 1-20.
  • Woo, W. T. (2012) “China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-Up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • World Bank (2019) databank.worldbank.org/data/download/site-content/OGHIST.xls, (05.09.2019).

TESTING THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP HYPOTHESIS WITH THE PANEL UNIT ROOT

Year 2019, Volume: 17 Issue: 4, 200 - 213, 30.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.631141

Abstract

Middle Income Trap Hypothesis was tested in this study, for the selected 8 countries (Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Romania, Russia and Turkey), from high-middle-income country groups according to the classification of the World Bank.  At first, the ratio of per capita income (according to Purchasing Power Parity Approach) to US per capita income was calculated according to the Capture Index Approach, which was first developed by Woo (2012), the study covering the 1990-2016 period.  Then, the panel unit root test which allows structural breaks, developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) was applied to the generated capture index data. According to panel unit root test results, the capture index series of the countries have got a unit root, and it was concluded that the countries were not in the middle income trap.

References

  • Agénor, P. R., Canuto, O. ve Jelenic, M. (2012) “Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps”, The World Bank Economic Premise, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, 98: 1-7.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (1998) “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66(1): 47-78.
  • Baltagi, B. (2008) “Econometrica”, Fourth Edition, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,USA.
  • Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980) “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Review of Economic Studies, 47: 239-53.
  • Bozkurt, E., Sevinç, H. ve Çakmak, E. (2016) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Üst Orta Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi”, Ege Academic Review, 16(2): 379-394.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Barrio-Castro, T. D. ve Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005) “Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita”, Econometrics Journal, 8: 159-175.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., ve Shin, K. (2012) “When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”, Asian Economic Papers, 11(1): 42-87.
  • Felipe, J., Abdon, A., ve Kumar, U. (2012) “Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper, 715: 1-59.
  • Gill, I. S., ve Kharas, H. (2007) “An East Asian renaissance: ideas for economic growth”, The World Bank.
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M. S. (2011) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranı mı? İşsizlik Histerisi mi? Türkiye İçin Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2): 205-215.
  • Hadri, K. (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panel Data”, The Econometrics Journal, 3(2): 148-161.
  • Kharas, H., ve Kohli, H. (2011) “What is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How can It Be Avoided?”, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3): 281-289.
  • Manga, M., Ballı, E. ve Güreşçi, G. (2019) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 59: 48-60.
  • Ohno, K. (2009) “Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(1): 25-43.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, CESifo Working Paper, 1229: 1-40.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007) “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence”. Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008) “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1): 105-127.
  • Robertson, P. E., ve Ye, L. (2013) “On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap”, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper, 13.12: 1-18.
  • Şahin, H. (2014) “Türkiye Ekonomisi”, 14. Baskı, Bursa: Ezgi Kitabevi.
  • Tarı, R., Koç, S. ve Abasız, T. (2019) ‘‘Ekonometri’’, 14. Baskı, Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tho, T. V. (2013) “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations” VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2): 107-128.
  • Tıraşoğlu, M., ve Karasaç, F. (2018) “Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında E7 Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme”, Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 13(2): 337-361.
  • Tiftikçigil, B. Y., Güriş, B. ve Yaşgül, Y. S. (2018) “Does Middle Income Trap Exist?: Evidence from Emerging Economies: E7 Countries for 1969-2015”, Revista Galega de Economía, 27(1): 145-158.
  • Ünlü, F. ve Yıldız, R. (2018) “Orta Gelir Tuzağının Belirlenmesi: Ekonometrik Analiz”. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 14(1), 1-20.
  • Woo, W. T. (2012) “China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-Up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • World Bank (2019) databank.worldbank.org/data/download/site-content/OGHIST.xls, (05.09.2019).
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Zafer Öztürk 0000-0002-9173-0628

Arzu Tay Bayramoğlu 0000-0002-6659-4767

Publication Date December 30, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 17 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Öztürk, Z., & Tay Bayramoğlu, A. (2019). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 17(4), 200-213. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.631141
AMA Öztürk Z, Tay Bayramoğlu A. ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ. Journal of Management and Economics Research. December 2019;17(4):200-213. doi:10.11611/yead.631141
Chicago Öztürk, Zafer, and Arzu Tay Bayramoğlu. “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 17, no. 4 (December 2019): 200-213. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.631141.
EndNote Öztürk Z, Tay Bayramoğlu A (December 1, 2019) ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ. Journal of Management and Economics Research 17 4 200–213.
IEEE Z. Öztürk and A. Tay Bayramoğlu, “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ”, Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 200–213, 2019, doi: 10.11611/yead.631141.
ISNAD Öztürk, Zafer - Tay Bayramoğlu, Arzu. “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 17/4 (December 2019), 200-213. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.631141.
JAMA Öztürk Z, Tay Bayramoğlu A. ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2019;17:200–213.
MLA Öztürk, Zafer and Arzu Tay Bayramoğlu. “ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ”. Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 17, no. 4, 2019, pp. 200-13, doi:10.11611/yead.631141.
Vancouver Öztürk Z, Tay Bayramoğlu A. ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI HİPOTEZİ’NİN PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2019;17(4):200-13.