Kural tabanlı bulanık yaklaşımla talep tahmini ve hızlı tüketim sektöründe bir uygulama

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 83 - 93, 27.02.2018

Beyzanur Çayır Ervural İrem Uçal Sarı , Berk Koçyiğit

Öz

Talep
tahmin çalışmaları hem sektörel hem de akademik anlamda karar vericiler için
önemli kabul edilen stratejik konulardan biridir. Sürekli değişen politik,
kültürel, yasal ve ekonomik gelişmeler işletmeleri belirsizlik altında tahmin
etmeye itmiştir. Karmaşık, çok boyutlu ve belirsizliğin yüksek olduğu
ortamlarda klasik yöntemlerle problemleri modellemek oldukça güçtür. Bulanık
yaklaşımlar daha esnek yapıda olduğu için daha kolay modelleme imkânı
sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada hızlı tüketim sektöründe faaliyet gösteren bir
firmanın talep tahmin çalışması,  bulanık
küme teorisi, bulanık eğer-ise kuralları ve bulanık çıkarım kavramlarına
dayanan kural tabanlı bulanık mantık yaklaşımıyla ele alınmıştır. Kural tabanlı
bulanık yaklaşımla elde edilen sonuçlar gerçekleşen değerler ile
karşılaştırılmış ve düşük mutlak sapma değerlerine ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca elde
edilen sonuçlar zaman serileri yaklaşımıyla da karşılaştırılmış, yöntemlerin
üstünlükleri gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Talep tahmini, Bulanık mantık, Kural tabanlı bulanık yaklaşım

Fuzzy rule based demand forecasting and an application on fast moving consumer industry

Öz

Demand
forecasting studies are one of the strategic issues which are considered as significant
for academicians and decision makers. Constantly changing political, cultural,
legal and economic developments have pushed the companies to predict under
uncertainty. It is very difficult to model some problems with traditional
methods in complex, multi-dimensional and highly uncertain environment. Fuzzy
approaches provide an easier modelling owing to their flexible nature. In this
study, a demand forecasting study in a FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods)
company has been applied using a rule based fuzzy logic approach which utilizes
fuzzy set theory, fuzzy if-else rules and fuzzy inference concepts. The
obtained results have been compared with real demands and low MAPE (mean
absolute percentage error) values have been calculated. Also the obtained
results have been compared with time series approach and the superiorities of
the methods are discussed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demand forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Rule based fuzzy approach

Kaynakça

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