Kazanç Yönetiminin Kar Dağıtım Politikaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: BİST Sınai Endeksinde Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2024, Sayı: ICAFR'23 Özel Sayısı, 1 - 23, 14.03.2024

Bahadır Uysal Evren Yanya

https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1375905

Öz

İşletme yöneticileri, ortakların servetini maksimize etme hedefine ulaşmaya çalışırken, aynı zamanda nakit akışlarını ve riski etkileyen faktörleri de yönetmelidir. Ortakların işletmeden beklentilerinin başında gelen kâr payı, işletmenin belirlediği kâr payı politikasına bağlı olarak değişmektedir. Dolayısıyla işletmenin ilgili dönemde ne kadar kâr ettiğinin hesaplanması önem arz etmektedir. Gelir tablosunda raporlanan kâr, işletme yöneticilerinin takdirine bağlı olarak manipüle edilebilecek bir değerdir. Dağıtıma konu edilen kâr, faaliyetlerden elde edilen nakit akışları ve toplam tahakkuklardan oluşmaktadır. İşletme faaliyetlerinden elde edilen nakit akışlarının manipüle edilemeyeceği varsayılmaktadır. Bu nedenle toplam tahakkukların artırılması veya azaltılması yoluyla kâr tutarları manipüle edilebilmektedir. Bu yöntem literatürde bir muhasebe manipülasyonu olan kazanç yönetimi olarak bilinmektedir. Kazanç yönetimi, yasalar ve muhasebe standartları çerçevesinde kârın olduğundan farklı gösterildiği işlemler olarak ifade edilebilmektedir. Kazanç yönetimi ile manipüle edilebilen kâr, kâr dağıtım politikası kapsamında hissedarlara dağıtılmaktadır. Bu durumda finansal tablo bilgilerine dayanarak karar alan paydaşlar yanlış yönlendirilmekte ve yatırım kararları olumsuz etkilenmektedir. Kazanç yönetimi uygulamaları ile kâr dağıtım politikası arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığı sorusu literatürde inceleme konusu olmuştur. Ancak çalışmalarda iki değişken arasında genel kabul görmüş bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Yapılan litaretür incelemesinde bu ilişkinin Türkiye’de de yeterince araştırılmadığı görülmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, ihtiyari tahakkukların iki farklı modele göre hesaplanarak Türkiye’de kâr dağıtım politikası ve kazanç yönetimi arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada BIST Sınai Endeksinde yer alan ve kesintisiz kâr payı dağıtan 35 işletmenin 2015-2021 dönemine ilişkin verileri panel veri analizi ile incelenmiştir. Kazanç yönetiminin tespit edilmesinde tahakkuk esasına dayalı bazı istatistiksel modeller geliştirilmiştir. Bu çalışmada ihtiyari tahakkukları ölçmek için Düzeltilmiş Jones (1995) ve Kothari (2005) modelleri kullanılmıştır. Model sonuçlarındaki değişen varyans sorunu Huber, Eicker ve White Tahmincisi kullanılarak ortadan kaldırılmıştır. Model 1 sonuçlarına göre, Düzeltilmiş Jones modeli ile hesaplanan ihtiyari tahakkuklar ile kâr dağıtım politikası arasında %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde negatif bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonucun test edildiği Model 2’de ise Kothari Modeli ile hesaplanan ihtiyari tahakkuklar ile kâr dağıtım politikası arasında negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Katsayılar değerlendirildiğinde, her iki modelin de birbirini desteklediği görülmektedir. İhtiyari tahakkuklardaki bir birimlik artış, kâr payı dağıtım politikasını Model 1’e göre 1,139 birim, Model 2’ye göre ise 1,120 birim azaltmaktadır. Kontrol değişkenleri olarak kullanılan özkaynak kârlılığı, cari oran ve kaldıraç oranı değişkenleri için anlamlı sonuçlar elde edilememiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları değerlendirildiğinde, kısıtlayıcı mevzuatın önemi ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, yatırımcılara karşı şeffaf olmak ve onların haklarını korumak, kazanç yönetimi uygulamaları üzerinde daha kısıtlayıcı bir etki yaratmaktadır. Yasal düzenlemeler, yatırımcıları etkin bir şekilde korursa, yöneticilerin işletme performansını gizleme ihtiyacını azalmaktadır. Dolayısıyla yatırımcılara yönelik yasal korumanın güçlü olduğu ülkelerde kazanç yönetiminin daha sınırlı bir şekilde uygulanabileceği değerlendirilmiştir. Diğer taraftan işletmelerin kazanç yönetimi yoluyla elde ettikleri kazançların sürdürülebilir, kalıcı ve reel olmadığı düşünüldüğünde kâr payı dağıtmaları beklenmemelidir. Başka bir ifade ile işletmenin kazanç yönetimi uygulamaları ile elde ettikleri kazançlar yapay bir nitelik göstermektedir. Bu nedenle işletme gerçekte elde etmediği bir kârı, kâr payı olarak dağıtmaktan kaçınacağı düşünülmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları aynı zamanda gelişmişte olan ülkelerde işletme yöneticilerinin istikrarlı bir kâr dağıtım politikası oluşturma konusunda hevesli olmadıklarına işaret etmektedir. Başka bir ifade ile işletme yöneticileri kazanç yönetimi uygulamalarını kullanarak daha yüksek kâr açıklayıp yatırımcılarına düzenli şekilde kâr payı dağıtmak noktasında herhangi bir istek duymamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kazanç Yönetimi, Kâr Dağıtım Politikaları, Muhasebe Manipülasyonu, Panel Veri Analizi, BİST Sınai Endeksi

The Impact of Earnings Management on Dividend Distribution Policies: A Study on BIST Industrial Index

Öz

While trying to achieve the goal of maximizing shareholders' wealth, business managers must also manage cash flows and factors affecting risk. Dividend, which is one of the primary expectations of shareholders from the enterprise, varies depending on the dividend policy determined by the enterprise. Therefore, it is important to calculate how much profit the entity made in the relevant period. The profit reported in the income statement is a value that can be manipulated at the discretion of business managers. Profit subject to distribution consists of cash flows from operating activities and total accruals. It is assumed that cash flows from operating activities cannot be manipulated. Therefore, profit amounts can be manipulated by increasing or decreasing total accruals. This method is known in the literature as earnings management, which is an accounting manipulation. Earnings management can be defined as transactions in which profits are misstated in accordance with laws and accounting standards. Profit that can be manipulated through earnings management is distributed to shareholders within the scope of dividend policy. In this case, stakeholders who make decisions based on financial statement information are misled and their investment decisions are negatively affected. The question of whether there is a relationship between earnings management practices and dividend policy has been the subject of study in the literature. However, no generally accepted relationship between the two variables has been identified in the studies. The literature review reveals that this relationship has not been sufficiently investigated in Turkey. In this context, this study aims to examine the relationship between dividend policy and earnings management in Turkey by calculating discretionary accruals according to two different models. In the study, the data of 35 companies in the BIST Industrial Index that distribute dividends without interruption for the period 2015-2021 are analyzed with panel data analysis. Some statistical models based on accrual basis have been developed to determine earnings management. This study uses the adjusted Jones (1995) and Kothari (2005) models to measure discretionary accruals. Huber, Eicker and White Estimator was used to overcome the problem of heteroscedasticity in the model results. According to the results of Model 1, there is a negative relationship between dividend policy and discretionary accruals calculated with the Adjusted Jones model at 5% significance level. In Model 2, where this result is tested, a negative and significant relationship is found between discretionary accruals calculated with the Kothari Model and dividend policy. When the coefficients are evaluated, it is seen that both models support each other. A one unit increase in discretionary accruals decreases the dividend distribution policy by 1.139 units according to Model 1 and 1.120 units according to Model 2. No significant results were obtained for the return on equity, current ratio and leverage ratio variables used as control variables. When the findings of the study are evaluated, the importance of restrictive legislation emerges. In this context, being transparent to investors and protecting their rights may have a more restrictive impact on earnings management practices. Legal regulations that effectively protect investors reduce the need for managers to conceal business performance. Therefore, it can be stated that earnings management can be implemented in a more limited way in countries where the legal protection of investors is strong. On the other hand, when it is considered that the earnings obtained by the companies through earnings management are not sustainable, permanent and real, they should not be expected to distribute dividends. In other words, the earnings obtained by the enterprise through earnings management practices show a unreal nature. For this reason, it is thought that the enterprise will refrain from distributing a profit that it does not actually earn as dividend.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Earnings Management, Dividend Policies, Accounting Manipulation, Panel Data Analysis, BIST Industrial Index

Kaynakça

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