A Mutual-Grand Strategy Modeling of the Russia-Ukraine War 2022: Balancing the Unbalanced

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 19 - 72, 01.05.2023

Mariam Ariba

https://doi.org/10.53451/ijps.1174300

Öz

In this research paper, we seek to strategize the Russian-Ukrainian War 2022 based on a game theory and hypergame theory perspective. Setting the most optimal strategies described and prescribed for each conflicting party is the main objective of this Mutual-Grand Strategy Modeling. At the core, theorizing the actual war situation through four waves predicting this war multiple possibilities and explaining the grand strategy made by each side reflects the manner under which the rationality argument and utility assumptions of a (hyper)game theory situation exist. Meaningfully, a rational player picks those moves that (are perceived correctly or incorrectly to) contribute to raising its payoffs in the conflict while reasoning about the opponent’s best strategies and outcomes. By applying our developed balance of deterrence rules and the related equilibria, the war can be terminated by each wave’s end in either a theoretic-strategic diplomatic way, military victory, or both.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Deterrence, (Grand) Strategy, Equilibrium, War, Russia, Ukraine, Alliance, Balance

Destekleyen Kurum

Sakarya University, Social Sciences Institute, International Relations Department; Turkey

Proje Numarası

Doctorate Project. Ph.D. Student Number: D176007007

Teşekkür

My acknowledgment and thanks to my Ph.D. dissertation supervisor, Prof. Dr. Ertan Efegil, International Relations Department, Sakarya University.

Kaynakça

• Brown, David, Bella Hurrell, Dominic Bailey, Mike Hills, Lucy Rodgers, Paul Sargeant, Mark Bryson, Zoe Bartholomew, Sean Willmott, Sana Dionysiou, Joy Roxas, Gerry Fletcher, Jana Tauschinsk, Debie Loizou, and Prina Shah. “Ukraine War in Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion.” BBC News. April 4, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682.