CONVERGENCE OF PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM RALS TESTS

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 141 - 156, 31.12.2023

İbrahim Sezer Belliler Ahmet Demiralp

https://doi.org/10.54282/inijoss.1369331

Öz

The focus of developing economies in recent years has shifted from the growth of per capita national income to sustainability. A sustainable economy is now possible with a sustainable environment. Therefore, energy utilization rates of countries have become a very important issue with the sustainability framework. In this study, the energy consumption convergence of the 10 European countries with the highest per capita energy consumption is analyzed using the data set covering the period between 1965 and 2022. Conventional unit root tests and many recent unit root tests with extended residuals are used to detect energy convergence. Conventional unit root tests did not provide sufficient evidence for convergence, and the classical unit root tests were found to be very weak in rejecting the null hypothesis. When the residuals obtained from the classical unit root tests are analyzed, it is found that the residuals of many countries are not normally distributed. Therefore, RALS-type unit root tests with extended residuals were applied to the data sets. Although no convergence was detected for any country because of classical unit root tests, it was found that some European countries showed convergence behavior in the results of RALS-type unit root tests. Since the data set covers a period of 58 years, it is known that many economic fluctuations have been experienced in this long period. For this reason, the most recent RALS type unit root test, which considers structural breaks, was applied to the data sets. No convergence was detected in the classical unit root tests, and because of the unbroken RALS-type unit root tests, it was found that three countries converged to the group average. As a result of the latest RALS-type unit root test with breaks found that 7 out of 10 selected European countries (Germany, Belgium, France, Netherlands, Italy, Romania, and Greece) converged to the group average.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy consumption, Convergence, RALS unit root test

SEÇİLMİŞ AVRUPA ÜLKELERİNDE KİŞİ BAŞI ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ YAKINSAMASI: RALS TESTİNDEN KANITLAR

Öz

Gelişen ekonomilerin son yıllardaki odak noktası sadece kişi başı milli gelirin büyümesi olmaktan çıkmış yerini sürdürebilirliğe bırakmıştır. Sürdürülebilir bir ekonomi artık sürdürülebilir çevre ile mümkün olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla ülkelerin enerji kullanım oranları sürdürülebilirlik çerçevesiyle birlikte oldukça önemli bir konu haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada kişi başı enerji tüketiminin en çok olduğu 10 Avrupa ülkesinin enerji tüketimi yakınsaması 1965 ile 2022 yılları arasını kapsayan veri seti kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Enerji yakınsamasının tespiti için geleneksel birim kök testleri ile kalıntıları genişletilmiş birçok güncel birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Geleneksel birim kök testleri sonucunda yakınsamanın varlığına dair yeterli kanıt elde edilememiş olup uygulanan klasik birim kök testleri temel hipotezi reddedebilme konusunda oldukça güçsüz kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Klasik birim kök testlerinden elde edilen kalıntılar incelendiğinde ise birçok ülkenin kalıntılarının normal dağılmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu nedenle kalıntıları eklenmiş RALS tipi birim kök testleri veri setlerine uygulanmıştır. Klasik birim kök testleri neticesinde hiçbir ülke için yakınsama tespit edilememesine karşın RALS tipi birim kök testleri sonuçlarında bazı Avrupa ülkelerinin yakınsama davranışı gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Veri setinin 58 yıllık dönemi içermesi nedeniyle bu uzun dönemde birçok ekonomik dalgalanmanın yaşandığı bilinmektedir. Bu sebeple veri setlerine son olarak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan en güncel RALS tipi birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Klasik birim kök testlerinde hiç yakınsama tespit edilememiş olup kırılmasız RALS tipi birim kök testleri neticesinde üç ülkenin grup ortalamasına yakınsadığı bulunmuştur. En son uygulanan kırılmalı RALS tipi birim kök testi sonucunda ise seçilmiş 10 Avrupa ülkesinden 7’sinin (Almanya, Belçika, Fransa, Hollanda, İtalya, Romanya ve Yunanistan) grup ortalamasına yakınsadığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji tüketimi, Yakınsama, RALS birim kök testi

Kaynakça

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