Araştırma Makalesi
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Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 422 - 445, 31.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1415888

Öz

General topic in this paper is the role of oil industry in global economy and the result of changing oil prices on economic variables in Azerbaijan. The major aim is to analyze the effects of crude oil price changes on Azerbaijan economy in order to measure how changes in oil prices affect its basic economic variables. At the beginning, a general outlook on oil industry will be given and the main oil exporting economies will be analized. However, main focus will be on the structure of Azerbaijan’s economy and it will examine the example of Azerbaijan as a transition economy where oil and gas production and exports have steadily increased from the mid ‘90s. Many critical oil and gas extraction projects have been implemented; while the oil and gas sector's dominance in the economy poses a number of threats to the balanced development of the country's economy. It will show how the economy of Azerbaijan was affected after the oil crisis, such as other developing countries that mainly depending on oil and petroleum products. For this purpose, VEC Model has been applied, consdering Azerbaijan Statistic Data and analized the effects of oil price fluctuations on its economic variables parallel with the oil industry. The main findings indicate that Azerbaijan's economy is strongly dependent on resource exports, which produce high growth rates when commodity prices are favorable, but end up with lower macroeconomic performance when global oil prices fall. It is clear that the main income of Azerbaijan comes from oil and oil products, so the export of oil will have a high impact on the saving level of the population. At the time of high revenues come from export and the low exchange rate of the foreign currency in Azerbaijan has also led to the low cost of imported goods. As well demonstrated in the research, Azerbaijan economy has been widely exposed to major crude oil price distortions. It can be said that in order to avoid increasing overdependence on oil earnings, diversifying the economy should be a top priority.

Kaynakça

  • Arab Monetary Fund (2005). Arab Financial Institutions and Development Financing and Investment in the
  • Arab Countries (in Arabic), Abu Dhabi. Available at; www.amf.org.ae
  • Aslanbayli, B. (2020). NATO’s possible role in the protection of critical energy infrastructure in Azerbaijan. Caucasus International, 4(3-4), 133-142.
  • Atakisiyev M. (2014). The Role of Azerbaijan's Oil Strategy in the Development of the National Economy. Tax Journal, .5 (119). 78.
  • Berument, M.H., Ceylan, N.B., Dogan, N. (2010). The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries. Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-176. DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No1-7
  • British Petroleum (2016). Outlook to 2035 in BP Energy Outlook (2016). British Petroleum: London, UK. 115- 130.
  • Bulut, C., Suleymanov, E and Hasanov, F. (2017). The Impact of the Oil Price Fluctuations on the Economic Policies in the Oil-Exporting Countries of the Former Soviet, Alatoo Academic Studies, 1, 90.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (2010). Financial Indicators of the Republic of Azerbaijan for the Years 2000-2009.
  • Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) (2016). The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2015: Independent View. CESD PRESS, Baku, Azerbaijan, 3-25.
  • Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) (2017). The Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Exchange Rate of the National Currency of Azerbaijan: Assessment of the years 2014-2017. CESD PRESS, Baku, 13.
  • Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) (2017). The Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Exchange Rate of the National Currency of Azerbaijan: Assessment of the years 2014-2017. CESD PRESS, Baku, 11.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (2015). Statement on the Main Directions of Monetary and Financial Stability Policy for 2016. Available at; https://www.cbar.az/page-14/main-directions-of-the-monetary-policy
  • Central Bank of Azerbaijan (2015), Statement on the main directions of monetary and financial stability policy for 2016. https://www.cbar.az./page-14/main-directions-of-the-monetary-policy
  • Corden, W. M. (1984). Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economies: Survey and Consolidation, Oxford Journals: Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Oxford University Press 36 (3), 359-380. Available at; http://www.jstor.org/stable/2662669
  • Deloittee (2020). The Future of Work in Oil, Gas And Chemicals. Available at; https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/insights/industry/oil-and-gas/future-of-work-oil-and-gas- chemicals.html
  • Ekong, N. P., D. Ebong, D. W. (2016). On the Crude Oil Price, Stock Market Movement and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria Evidence from Cointegration and Var Analysis. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 2016, 4(3): 112-123.
  • Horsnell, P. (2004). Why Oil Prices Have Moved Higher, Oxford Energy Forum, Oxford. 403.
  • Ibadoghlu, G. (2020). Retrospective Analysis of the Initial Results of Economic Reforms in Azerbaijan: Qualitative and Quantitative Assessments (January 6, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3514310 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3514310
  • Ibrahimov R. (2010). Azerbaijan: Happiness is the Availability of Export Corridors. Available at; http://www.turkishweekly.net/columnist/2536/azerbaijan-happiness-is-the-availability-ofexport- corridors.html
  • Karl, T.L. (1997). The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
  • Karl, T.L. (1999). The perils of the petro-state: reflections on the paradox of plenty. Journal of Internatıonal Affaırs-Columbia University, 53(1):31–52.
  • Kleinberg, R.L.; Paltsev, S.; Ebinger, C.K.E.; Hobbs, D.A.; Boersma, T. (2017). Tight Oil Market Dynamics: Benchmarks, Breakeven Points, and Inelasticities. Energy Economics, 70, 70–83.
  • Mukhtarov, S., Aliyev, S., and Zeynalov, J. (2020). The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 72-80.
  • Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A. M. (2001). The Curse of Natural Resources. European Economic Review. 45 (4), 827 – 838.
  • State Statistics Committee (2022). Azerbaijan in Figures. Statistic Journal. pp. 94-100.
  • Statista (2022). Available at; https://www.statista.com
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (2021). The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. Available at; https://www.opec.org
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (2021). Annual Statistical Bulletin (11/21), Available at; https://www.opec.org
  • U.S. Energy and Information Administration (2015). Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel), Available at; http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp
  • Yunusov, A. (2011). Twenty Years of Independence in Azerbaijan, South Caucasus -20 Years of Independence, Friedrich Ebert Stifhung, p.60 – 76.
  • Yusifzade K.B. (2016). Status and prospects for the development of oil and gas production in Azerbaijan, Journal Azerbaijan Oil Industry, No. 11-12, p.70-76.
  • World Bank (2016). Ease of Doing Business in Azerbaijan, http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/explore economies/ azerbaijan/

Küresel Petrol Fiyatındaki Değişimlerin Bozucu Etkileri: Azerbaycan Örneği

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 422 - 445, 31.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1415888

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı genel itibariyle, petrol endüstrisinin küresel ekonomideki rolü ve özel olarak da Azerbaycan ekonomisinde değişen petrol fiyatlarının belirleyici etkisidir. Bu çalışmadaki temel amaç, ulualararası piyasalarda ham petrol fiyat değişimlerinin Azerbaycan ekonomisi üzerinde oluşturduğu etkilerinin analiz edilmesidir. Bu çalışma, Azerbaycan'da petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin temel ekonomik değişkenleri nasıl etkilediğini ölçmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Başlangıçta petrol endüstrisine dair genel bir inceleme yapılarak, başlıca petrol ihracatçısı olan ülke ekonomileri analiz edilecektir. Ancak bu yazıda asıl odak noktası Azerbaycan ekonomisi olacak ve bir geçiş ekonomisi olarak Azerbaycan örneği incelenecektir. Petrol krizinden sonra, diğer geçiş ekonomilerindeki ülkelerde olduğu gibi ağırlıklı olarak petrol ve petrol ürünlerine bağımlı olan Azerbaycan ekonomisinin nasıl etkilendiğini grafikler ve tablolar yardımıyla gösterilecektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bu çalışmada, Azerbaycan İstatistik Verilerine göre VECM modeli oluşturulmuş ve petrol endüstrisine paralel olarak petrol fiyatlarının ekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Kısaca, yapılan bu analiz neticesinde hangi değişkenlerin değişen fiyatlara daha duyarlı olduğunu anlaşılabilmektedir. Nihai olarak, petrole bağımlı ekonomilerde keskin fiyat değişimlerinin ekonominin geneli üzerindeki bozucu etkilerini dengelemek adına diğer sektörlerin ve bütüncül olarak Azerbaycan milli ekonomisinin geliştirilmesi için politika önerileri sunulacaktır.

Kaynakça

  • Arab Monetary Fund (2005). Arab Financial Institutions and Development Financing and Investment in the
  • Arab Countries (in Arabic), Abu Dhabi. Available at; www.amf.org.ae
  • Aslanbayli, B. (2020). NATO’s possible role in the protection of critical energy infrastructure in Azerbaijan. Caucasus International, 4(3-4), 133-142.
  • Atakisiyev M. (2014). The Role of Azerbaijan's Oil Strategy in the Development of the National Economy. Tax Journal, .5 (119). 78.
  • Berument, M.H., Ceylan, N.B., Dogan, N. (2010). The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries. Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-176. DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No1-7
  • British Petroleum (2016). Outlook to 2035 in BP Energy Outlook (2016). British Petroleum: London, UK. 115- 130.
  • Bulut, C., Suleymanov, E and Hasanov, F. (2017). The Impact of the Oil Price Fluctuations on the Economic Policies in the Oil-Exporting Countries of the Former Soviet, Alatoo Academic Studies, 1, 90.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (2010). Financial Indicators of the Republic of Azerbaijan for the Years 2000-2009.
  • Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) (2016). The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2015: Independent View. CESD PRESS, Baku, Azerbaijan, 3-25.
  • Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) (2017). The Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Exchange Rate of the National Currency of Azerbaijan: Assessment of the years 2014-2017. CESD PRESS, Baku, 13.
  • Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) (2017). The Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Exchange Rate of the National Currency of Azerbaijan: Assessment of the years 2014-2017. CESD PRESS, Baku, 11.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (2015). Statement on the Main Directions of Monetary and Financial Stability Policy for 2016. Available at; https://www.cbar.az/page-14/main-directions-of-the-monetary-policy
  • Central Bank of Azerbaijan (2015), Statement on the main directions of monetary and financial stability policy for 2016. https://www.cbar.az./page-14/main-directions-of-the-monetary-policy
  • Corden, W. M. (1984). Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economies: Survey and Consolidation, Oxford Journals: Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Oxford University Press 36 (3), 359-380. Available at; http://www.jstor.org/stable/2662669
  • Deloittee (2020). The Future of Work in Oil, Gas And Chemicals. Available at; https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/insights/industry/oil-and-gas/future-of-work-oil-and-gas- chemicals.html
  • Ekong, N. P., D. Ebong, D. W. (2016). On the Crude Oil Price, Stock Market Movement and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria Evidence from Cointegration and Var Analysis. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 2016, 4(3): 112-123.
  • Horsnell, P. (2004). Why Oil Prices Have Moved Higher, Oxford Energy Forum, Oxford. 403.
  • Ibadoghlu, G. (2020). Retrospective Analysis of the Initial Results of Economic Reforms in Azerbaijan: Qualitative and Quantitative Assessments (January 6, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3514310 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3514310
  • Ibrahimov R. (2010). Azerbaijan: Happiness is the Availability of Export Corridors. Available at; http://www.turkishweekly.net/columnist/2536/azerbaijan-happiness-is-the-availability-ofexport- corridors.html
  • Karl, T.L. (1997). The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
  • Karl, T.L. (1999). The perils of the petro-state: reflections on the paradox of plenty. Journal of Internatıonal Affaırs-Columbia University, 53(1):31–52.
  • Kleinberg, R.L.; Paltsev, S.; Ebinger, C.K.E.; Hobbs, D.A.; Boersma, T. (2017). Tight Oil Market Dynamics: Benchmarks, Breakeven Points, and Inelasticities. Energy Economics, 70, 70–83.
  • Mukhtarov, S., Aliyev, S., and Zeynalov, J. (2020). The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 72-80.
  • Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A. M. (2001). The Curse of Natural Resources. European Economic Review. 45 (4), 827 – 838.
  • State Statistics Committee (2022). Azerbaijan in Figures. Statistic Journal. pp. 94-100.
  • Statista (2022). Available at; https://www.statista.com
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (2021). The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. Available at; https://www.opec.org
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (2021). Annual Statistical Bulletin (11/21), Available at; https://www.opec.org
  • U.S. Energy and Information Administration (2015). Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel), Available at; http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp
  • Yunusov, A. (2011). Twenty Years of Independence in Azerbaijan, South Caucasus -20 Years of Independence, Friedrich Ebert Stifhung, p.60 – 76.
  • Yusifzade K.B. (2016). Status and prospects for the development of oil and gas production in Azerbaijan, Journal Azerbaijan Oil Industry, No. 11-12, p.70-76.
  • World Bank (2016). Ease of Doing Business in Azerbaijan, http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/explore economies/ azerbaijan/
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Doğal Kaynaklar Ekonomisi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Müjgan Deniz 0000-0002-3151-5838

Azad Heyderov 0000-0002-6843-6682

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Mart 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Mart 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 8 Ocak 2024
Kabul Tarihi 25 Mart 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Deniz, M., & Heyderov, A. (2024). Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(1), 422-445. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1415888
İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi  Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.