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DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN OECD COUNTRIES AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 53 - 63, 12.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.47138/jeaa.1253704

Öz

High inflation has been prevailing almost in all countries since the Covid-19 pandemic. This paper explores the main drivers of inflation in OECD countries after the pandemic by using recent data. Our empirical model is estimated with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method applied on cross-sectional data for OECD countries in 2022. The main result confirms that fiscal and monetary expansion during and after the pandemic are strongly associated with high inflation across countries. Other important finding suggests that democracy seems to be an important factor in countries to have less inflation rate. In other words, our study shows that less democratic countries face higher inflation rates. We also find that government debt to GDP ratio is negatively associated with inflation rate. Specifically, we contribute to inflation debate by analyzing the political stability with money and fiscal growth in the same model.

Kaynakça

  • Amani, R., Ghaderi, S., and Ahmadzadeh, K. (2023). Covid-19 and Inflation Rate: An Evidence for OECD Countries. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies.
  • Apergis, E. and Apergis, N. (2021). Inflation expectations, volatility and Covid-19: evidence from the US inflation swap rates. Applied Economics Letters, 28(15), p. 1327-1331.
  • Baqaee, D. and Farhi, E. (2022). Supply and demand in disaggregated Keynesian economies with an application to the covid-19 crisis. American Economic Review, 112(5), p. 1397-1436.
  • Bayer, C., Born, B., Luetticke, R. and Müller, G. J. (2020). The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier?. SSRN Working paper.
  • Bayır, M. and Kutlu, Ş. Ş. (2019). Enflasyonun İçsel Ve Dışsal Belirleyicilerine Yönelik Ampirik Bir Analiz. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(18), p. 251-270.
  • Bordo, M. D. and Levy, M. D. (2021). Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record. Economic Affairs, 41(1), p. 59-83.
  • Cavallo, A. (2020), Inflation with Covid consumption baskets (No. w27352). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • CBRT (2022). https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en, Access Date: 25.04.2022
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Weber, M. (2020). The cost of the covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending (No. w27141). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Desai, R. M., Olofsgård, A., & Yousef, T. M. (2003). Democracy, inequality, and inflation. American political science review, 97(3), 391-406.
  • Dunn, A., Hood, K. and Driessen, A. (2020). Measuring the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer spending using card transaction data. US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economist Intellegence Unit, https://www.eiu.com/n/, Access Dare: 21.03.2022
  • Erdoğan, S., Yildirim, D. Ç. and Gedikli, A. (2020). Dynamics and determinants of inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic period in European countries: A spatial panel data analysis. Duzce Medical Journal, 22(Special Issue), p. 61-67.
  • Fenira, M. (2014). Democracy: a determinant factor in reducing inflation. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4(2), 363-375.
  • Gharehgozli, O. and Lee, S. (2022). Money Supply and Inflation after COVID-19. Economies, 10(5), p. 101. Jaravel, X. and O'Connell, M. (2020). Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown. Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Working Papers. p. 1-25.
  • Lim, Y. C. and Sek, S. K. (2015). An examination on the determinants of inflation. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(7), p. 678-682.
  • McLuhan, M. (2014). Gutenberg Galaksisi. G. Ç. Güven (Çev.), İstanbul: Yapı Kredi Yayınları.
  • OECD (2022). Consumer Prices, https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-3-march-2022.htm . Access Date: 14.04.2022
  • OECD (2022). https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm , Access Date: 20.03.2022.
  • Özcan, B. (2014). Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyonun belirleyenleri: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), p. 33-53.
  • Park, S. E. (2020). Epidemiology, virology, and clinical features of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus Disease-19). Clinical and experimental pediatrics, 63(4), p. 119. WorldBank (2022). GDP Growth, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Access Date: 14.04.2022
  • Worldometers (2022). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , Access Date: 29.03.2022
  • Yuniarti, D. and Rosadi, D. (2021). Inflation of Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 1821, No. 1, p. 012039). IOP Publishing.

Covid-19 Pandemisi Sonrası OECD Ülkelerinde Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 53 - 63, 12.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.47138/jeaa.1253704

Öz

Covid-19 pandemisinden sonra neredeyse tüm ülkelerde yüksek enflasyon görülmektedir. Bu makale, son güncel verileri kullanarak salgın sonrası OECD ülkelerinde enflasyonun ana belirleyicilerini araştırmaktadır. Ampirik modelimiz OECD ülkeleri için yatay kesit verilerine dayanan Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (EKK) yöntemidir. Ana sonuç, pandemi sırasında ve sonrasında mali ve parasal genişlemenin ülkeler genelinde yüksek enflasyonla güçlü bir şekilde ilişkili olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. Bir diğer önemli bulgu ise demokrasinin ülkelerin enflasyon oranlarının düşük olmasında önemli bir faktör olduğu yönündedir. Başka bir deyişle, çalışmamız daha az demokratik ülkelerin daha yüksek enflasyon oranlarıyla karşı karşıya olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, devlet borcunun GSYİH'ya oranının enflasyon oranı ile negatif ilişkili olduğunu da bulunmuştur. Çalışma, para ve mali büyüme ile siyasi istikrarı analiz ederek enflasyon tartışmasına katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Amani, R., Ghaderi, S., and Ahmadzadeh, K. (2023). Covid-19 and Inflation Rate: An Evidence for OECD Countries. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies.
  • Apergis, E. and Apergis, N. (2021). Inflation expectations, volatility and Covid-19: evidence from the US inflation swap rates. Applied Economics Letters, 28(15), p. 1327-1331.
  • Baqaee, D. and Farhi, E. (2022). Supply and demand in disaggregated Keynesian economies with an application to the covid-19 crisis. American Economic Review, 112(5), p. 1397-1436.
  • Bayer, C., Born, B., Luetticke, R. and Müller, G. J. (2020). The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier?. SSRN Working paper.
  • Bayır, M. and Kutlu, Ş. Ş. (2019). Enflasyonun İçsel Ve Dışsal Belirleyicilerine Yönelik Ampirik Bir Analiz. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(18), p. 251-270.
  • Bordo, M. D. and Levy, M. D. (2021). Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record. Economic Affairs, 41(1), p. 59-83.
  • Cavallo, A. (2020), Inflation with Covid consumption baskets (No. w27352). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • CBRT (2022). https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en, Access Date: 25.04.2022
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Weber, M. (2020). The cost of the covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending (No. w27141). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Desai, R. M., Olofsgård, A., & Yousef, T. M. (2003). Democracy, inequality, and inflation. American political science review, 97(3), 391-406.
  • Dunn, A., Hood, K. and Driessen, A. (2020). Measuring the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer spending using card transaction data. US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economist Intellegence Unit, https://www.eiu.com/n/, Access Dare: 21.03.2022
  • Erdoğan, S., Yildirim, D. Ç. and Gedikli, A. (2020). Dynamics and determinants of inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic period in European countries: A spatial panel data analysis. Duzce Medical Journal, 22(Special Issue), p. 61-67.
  • Fenira, M. (2014). Democracy: a determinant factor in reducing inflation. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4(2), 363-375.
  • Gharehgozli, O. and Lee, S. (2022). Money Supply and Inflation after COVID-19. Economies, 10(5), p. 101. Jaravel, X. and O'Connell, M. (2020). Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown. Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Working Papers. p. 1-25.
  • Lim, Y. C. and Sek, S. K. (2015). An examination on the determinants of inflation. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(7), p. 678-682.
  • McLuhan, M. (2014). Gutenberg Galaksisi. G. Ç. Güven (Çev.), İstanbul: Yapı Kredi Yayınları.
  • OECD (2022). Consumer Prices, https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-3-march-2022.htm . Access Date: 14.04.2022
  • OECD (2022). https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm , Access Date: 20.03.2022.
  • Özcan, B. (2014). Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyonun belirleyenleri: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), p. 33-53.
  • Park, S. E. (2020). Epidemiology, virology, and clinical features of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus Disease-19). Clinical and experimental pediatrics, 63(4), p. 119. WorldBank (2022). GDP Growth, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, Access Date: 14.04.2022
  • Worldometers (2022). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , Access Date: 29.03.2022
  • Yuniarti, D. and Rosadi, D. (2021). Inflation of Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 1821, No. 1, p. 012039). IOP Publishing.
Toplam 22 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Yasin Acar 0000-0002-0847-1902

Bilal Orhan 0000-0003-2838-4782

Yayımlanma Tarihi 12 Haziran 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 20 Şubat 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Acar, Y., & Orhan, B. (2023). DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN OECD COUNTRIES AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. İktisadi Ve İdari Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 5(1), 53-63. https://doi.org/10.47138/jeaa.1253704