Determination of Agricultural Mechanization Level in Kahramanmaraş with Poisson Regress by District

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 285 - 296, 13.03.2024

İsmail Gök Mustafa Şahin Tolga Tolun

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1186095

Öz

In this study, agricultural mechanization level indicators of the districts of Kahramanmaraş between the years 2012-2021 were calculated. A model has been established for this. While the dependent variable in the model is the agricultural areas planted in the districts according to the years, the independent variables are the number of tractors in the districts according to the years and other determined tools, equipment and machines. Poisson regression test was used, there was 25.022 chi-square probability relationship between the planted agricultural areas in Kahramanmaraş districts between 2012 and 2021, with the number of tractors in the districts and other determined equipment by years. At the level of agricultural mechanization, it was determined that there was a 3.32 decrease in the average number of tractors per 1000 hectares of land in Kahramanmaraş districts between 2012 and 2021, and a decrease of 12.45 in the number of specific equipment per tractor over the years. Among this decrease, it was thought that reasons such as climate change, input costs and job change were among the main reasons for leaving agriculture. In the comparison made from 2012 to 2021, the number of tractors in all districts increased by 54.18%, while the number of tractor equipment was also observed. An increase of 46.11% was observed. In addition, as a result of the trend analysis value applied, it was concluded that the average absolute percentage errors in the districts were 4.10443, the average number of tractors per 1000 hectares by years, and the number of specific equipment per tractor in the districts according to the years was 1.96718, which is a good estimation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Agricultural land, Tractor, Agricultural Mechanization

Kahramanmaraş İlinde Tarımsal Mekanizasyon Düzeyinin İlçelere Göre Poisson Regresyon ile Belirlenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada Kahramanmaraş ilinin ilçelerinin 2012-2021 yılları arasındaki tarımsal mekanizasyon düzeyi göstergeleri hesaplanmıştır. Bunun için bir model kurulmuştur. Modelde bağımlı değişken yıllara göre ilçelerinde ekilen tarım alanları olur iken, bağımsız değişkenlerde yıllara göre ilçelerdeki traktör sayısı ve belirlenmiş diğer aletlerdir. Poisson regresyon testinin kullanıldığı bu alanda Kahramanmaraş ilinin ilçelerinin 2012-2021 yılları arasında Kahramanmaraş ilçelerinde ekilen tarım alanlarının, yıllara göre ilçelerdeki traktör sayısı ve belirlenmiş diğer aletleri ile arasında 25.022 ki-kare olabilirlik oranında bir ilişki vardır. Tarımsal mekanizasyon düzeyinde 2012-2021 yılları arasında Kahramanmaraş ilçelerinde yıllara göre 1000 hektar alana düşen ortalama traktör sayısında 3.32 oranında, yıllara göre traktör başına düşen belirli ekipman sayısında da 12.45 oranında bir azalma olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu azalmanın arasında iklim değişikliği, girdi maliyetleri, iş değişikliği gibi nedenlerden dolayı tarımı bırakmanın temel nedenleri arasında yer aldığı düşünülmüştür. Ayrıca uygulanan trend analiz değerinin sonucunda ortalama mutlak yüzdesel hatalar ise ilçelerin yıllara göre 1000 hektar alana düşen ortalama traktör sayısı 4.10443, ilçelerin yıllara göre traktör başına düşen belirli ekipman sayısı da 1.96718 olarak iyi bir tahmin gerçekleştirildiğinin sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tarım arazisi, Traktör, tarımsal mekanizasyon

Kaynakça

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