The Effect of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators on the Current Account Balance: An Empirical Research for Spain

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 152 - 168, 08.01.2024

Ayşe Özge Artekin

Öz

This research examined the impact of oil prices and exchange rates on the current account balance for Spain between 1980 and 2022 in terms of the long-term relationship between them. According to results of Johansen, Engle-Granger, Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration tests, impulse response, variance decomposition analysis and FMOLS methods, oil prices negatively affected the current balance and there is a long-term relationship among the variables. In the light of the findings, regarding the effects of crude oil prices on the sub-components of the current account balance, as policy makers implement economic policies on a sectoral basis; While it can contribute the accelerate adaptation in minimizing social loss, priority should be given to sub-sectors which will support them in the event of a negative oil shock. As a result, the Spanish government should adjust its tax policies on different petroleum products for sub-components of different sub-sectors to encourage the production of these sectors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, Current Account Balance, Spain.

Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Cari Denge Üzerindeki Etkisi: İspanya için Ampirik Bir Araştırma

Öz

Bu araştırma İspanya için 1980 – 2022 yılları arasında petrol fiyatları ve kur oranlarının cari denge üzerine etkisini ve aralarındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiyi ele almıştır. Çalışmada, Johansen, Engle-Granger, Phillips-Ouliaris eş-bütünleşme testleri, etki tepki, varyans ayrıştırması analizleri ve FMOLS yöntemi kullanılmış, hem petrol fiyatları cari dengeyi olumsuz olarak etkilemiş hem de aralarında uzun vadeli ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular ışığında ham petrol fiyatlarının cari işlemler dengesinin alt bileşenleri üzerindeki etkilerine ilişkin, politika yapıcıların ekonomi politikalarını sektörler bazında hayata geçirmeleriyle birlikte; sosyal kaybın en aza indirilmesinde uyumun hızlandırılmasına yardımcı olabileceği gibi, olumsuz bir petrol şokunda onları destekleyecek alt sektörlere öncelik verilmelidir. Sonuç olarak, İspanya hükümeti, farklı alt sektörlerin alt bileşenleri için farklı petrol ürünlerine dair uygulamış oldukları vergi politikalarını, bu sektörlerin üretimini teşvik edecek şekilde ayarlamalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatları, Kur Oranları, Cari Denge, İspanya.

Kaynakça

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