Binalarda Deprem Hasar Tahmini İçin Bulanık Mantık Kullanımı, Avcılar Ambarlı Mahallesi Örneği

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 253 - 268, 31.12.2023

Suleiman Khatrush Gül Yücel

https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1217421

Öz

İstanbul Avcılar İlçesi 17 Ağustos Marmara depremi merkez üssüne benzer mesafe ve doğrultudaki komşu ilçelere göre çok daha fazla hasar görmüştür. Depremin olduğu tarihte toplam bina sayısı 1338 olan Avcılar ilçesi Ambarlı Mahallesinde deprem sonrası 505 binada hasar tespiti yapılmıştır. Toplam bina sayısının %16,59’unu oluşturan 222 binanın farklı düzeylerde hasar gördüğü tespit edilmiştir. Binalarda depremden kaynaklanan hasar, özellikle daha önce önemli ölçüde tehlikeye maruz kalmış alanlar için deprem riski kavramının önemli bir unsurudur. Bu nedenle, belirli seviyelerde belirsizlik içeren nispeten karmaşık koşullara sahip bu tür durumlar için, basit ama etkili araçların kullanıldığı araştırmalar, bu tür olay ve sonuçlarının daha iyi anlaşılmasını sağlayabilir. Çalışmada, bulanık mantık yöntemi kullanılarak yer hareketi, zemin durumu, bina kat sayısı ve bina yaşı olmak üzere dört parametrenin dikkate alındığı bir model geliştirilmiştir. Hasar düzeyi analiz sonuçlarından elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada geliştirilen modelin uygulanabilirliği, İstanbul Avcılar İlçesi Ambarlı Mahallesi'ndeki 1999 Marmara Depremi sonrası hasar gören betonarme bina veri tabanı kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Model sonuçları, kaydedilmiş hasar dağılımı ile karşılaştırıldığında bölgedeki binaların hasar dağılımını makul bir şekilde ortaya koyduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar ayrıca, modelin mevcut betonarme binaların olası büyük depremlere karşı hasar dağılımını tahmin etme özelliğinde olduğunu da göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bulanık Mantık, Deprem, Risk, Hasar, Ambarlı

Seismic Damage Prediction of Buildings Using Fuzzy Logic, The Case of Ambarlı Neighborhood at Avcılar

Öz

The Kocaeli 1999 earthquake caused great damage of buildings in Istanbul, Avcılar district was the most affected region than any other nearby districts even though they are located further near to the epicenter. In Ambarlı Neighborhood at Avcılar, where the total number of buildings at the time of earthquake was 1338, damage assessment work was carried out on a total of 505 buildings. As a result, 222 buildings were categorized damaged to varying degrees which forms 16.59% of the total buildings in the area. Damage due to an earthquake is an important element of the earthquake risk concept, especially for areas previously suffered critical hazard. Therefore, for such situations with relatively complicated condition involving certain degrees of uncertainty, further investigations using simple but effective tools can lead to better understanding of such events and the consequences. In this study, a model has been developed using Fuzzy Logic method considering four parameters; Ground motion, ground condition, building number of floors and building age. The degree of damage is obtained as a result of the analysis. A post-earthquake damage database of reinforced concrete buildings within a selected zone at Ambarlı neighborhood due to 1999 Kocaeli earthquake has been used to investigate the applicability of the proposed method. The model results were found to reasonably presenting the distribution of damage of the buildings in the area when compared with the recorded damage distribution. The results also show that the model is capable of predicting damage distribution of the existing reinforced concrete buildings against possible earthquakes of large magnitude.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fuzzy Logic, Earthquake, Risk, Damage, Ambarlı

Kaynakça

• Allali, S.A.; Abed, M.; Mebarki, A. (2018). Post-earthquake assessment of buildings damage using fuzzy logic. Eng. Struct., 166, 117–127.
• Borcherdt, R.D., (1970). Effects of local geology on ground motion near San-Francisco Bay. Bull. Seismo. Soc. Am. 60 29-61-2213
• Cranswick, E., zel, O. Meremonte, O., Erdik, M., Xafak M., Mueller, E., Overturr, C., Frankel, D., (2000). Earthquake damage, site response and building response in Avcilar, west of Istanbul, Turkey. J. Hous. Sci. Appl. 24, 85 – 96.
• Erdikt M. Aydinoglu N., Fahjan Y., Sesetyan K., Demircioglu M., Siyahi B., Durukal E., Ozbey C., Biro Y., Akman H. and Yuzugullu O., (2003), Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area, Earthquake engineering and engineering vibration, Vol. 2, No. 1, June, 2003.
• Ergin, M., Zalaybeya, S. O. Aktara, M. Yalc, M.N. (2004) in Site amplification at Avcilar, Istanbul Tectonophysics 391 335 – 346
• Fischer T.M.,Alvarez,J.C.,De la Llera R., Riddell (2002) An integrated model for earthquake risk assessment of buildings , Engineering Structures, Volume 24, Issue 7, Pages 979-998
• Harirchian E., and Lahmer T. (2020), Improved Rapid Visual Earthquake Hazard Safety Evaluation of Existing Buildings Using a Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Model Appl. Sci. 10(7), 2375; Jour. Fac. Sci., Hokkaido Univ., Ser. VII (Geophysics), Vol. 12, No.2, 115-129, 2004.
• IMM, (2020), Istanbul province Avcilar district possible earthquake loss forecasts booklet, (in Turkish),
• JICA, (2002), The study on a disaster prevention / mitigation basic plan in Istanbul including seismic microzonation in the Republic of Turkey, Final report
• KOERI (2003), Earthquake risk assessment for the Istanbul metropolitan area, Final report, Bogazici University.
• Kömür, M, Altan, M., (2005) DETERMINATION OF SEISMIC PERFORMANCE INDEX OF RC BUILDINGS BY USING FUZZY LOGIC Journal of Selcuk-Technic Cilt 4, Sayı:2-2005 Volume 4, Number:2-2005-96-110
• Kurtulus, A., Ansal, A., Tonuk, G., & Cetiner, B. (2015). Observations from Geotechnical Arrays in Istanbul. 37. p. 161-175 Conference: International Conference on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering from Case History to Practice in the honor of Prof. Kenji Ishihara Location: Istanbul, TURKEY Date: JUN 17-19, 2013
• Mohanaselvi S. and Hemapriya G.(2019), Application of Fuzzy Logic to Earthquake Damage Predictions, The 11th National Conference on Mathematical Techniques and Applications AIP Conf. Proc. 2112, 020043.
• NEHRP (1997) Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, Part 1: Provisions, FEMA 302, Federal Management Agency.
• Rached, T. and Weeks, J. (2003). Assessing vulnerability to earthquake hazards through spatial multicriteria analysis of urban areas. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 17(6), 547-576
• Sanchez-Silva M. and Garcia L. (2001) Earthquake Damage Assessment Based on Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks Earthquake Spectra •
• Şen A. and Ekinci, V. (2016), Realization of Earthquake Vulnerability Analysis in Structure Scale with Fuzzy Logic Method in GIS: Kadıköy, Maltepe and Prince Islands Sample International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics (IJEGEO) Vol: 3 Issue:3 December, pp40-56
• Şen, Z. (2010). Rapid visual earthquake hazard evaluation of existing buildings by fuzzy logic modeling. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(8), 5653–5660
• Singh, S. K. , Lermo, J. Domínguez, T. Ordaz, M. Espinosa, J. M. Mena, E. and Quaas, R. (1988) The Mexico Earthquake of September 19, 1985, A Study of Amplification of Seismic Waves in the Valley of Mexico with Respect to a Hill Zone Site Volume 4, Issue 4
• Tesfamariam, S. and Saatcioglu, M. (2008). Risk-based seismic evaluation of reinforced concrete buildings. Earthquake Spectra, 24 (3), 795–821.
• TÜİK (2000a), Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü, Bina Sayımı 2000, Avcılar İlçesi, Mahalle Ölçeğinde Analiz, Sayı: B.02.1.DİE.0.16.00.05/907/55A40I- 1012 23.02.2004 Tarihli Rapor.
• TÜİK (2000b), Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü, Bina Sayımı 2000, Avcılar İlçesi, Mahalle Ölçeğinde Ek Analiz, Sayı: B.02.1.DİE.0.16.00.05/907/47A40I–5274, 30.07.2004 Tarihli Rapor
• TÜİK, (2021). Avcılar İlçesi 2021 Nüfus. TÜİK Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu, Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi. Favori Raporlar. Accesed: 05 October 2022, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95&locale=tr
• USTA P., MOROVA N., EVCİ A. and ERGÜN, S. (2018) Assessment of Seismic Damage on The Exist Buildings Using Fuzzy Logic IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng. 300 012062
• Yücel, G. (2009). Depremden Fiziksel ve Sosyal Etkilenebilirlik Değerlendirme Modeli: Avcılar örneği. (Earthquake and Physical and Social Vulnerability Assessment Model For Settlements: Case Study Avcılar District) (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, İstanbul
• Zadeh, L.A. (1965). Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8, 338-353.