ChatGPT HİSSE SENEDİ DEĞERLEMEDE KULLANILABİLİR Mİ? BORSA İSTANBUL ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 201 - 227, 31.12.2023

Ali Özer İstemi Çömlekçi Serkan Unal

https://doi.org/10.52736/ubeyad.1287067

Öz

Günümüzde teknoloji hızla ilerlemekte insanlar tarafından yapılan birçok iş, çok daha hızlı ve kusursuz bir şekilde bilgisayarlar tarafından yapılabilmektedir. Özellikle doğal dil işleme yeteneği olan ChatGPT gibi modeller aynı zamanda matematiksel işlemleri de yapabilmekte, tabloları okuyup yorumlayabilmektedirler. Bu araştırmada ChatGPT’nin şirketlerin finansal tablolarını kullanarak hisse senedi değerlemesi yapmakta ne derece başarılı olduğu araştırılmıştır. ChatGPT’ye geçmişe dönük finansal tablo verisi verilmiş ve adil piyasa değeri tahmini istenmiştir. Daha sonrasında ChatGPT tarafından tahmin edilen adil piyasa değeri ile cari piyasa değeri arasındaki fark tespit edilmiş ve bu farkın takip eden bir yılda hisse senedi getirilerini ne ölçüde tahmin edebildiği araştırılmıştır. Araştırma bulgularına göre ChatGPT tarafından iskontolu işlem gördüğü belirlenen hisselerin takip eden bir yıllık dönemdeki ortalama hisse senedi performansı %87, medyan hisse senedi performansı %38 olmuştur. ChatGPT tarafından primli işlem gördüğü belirlenen hisselerin ise takip eden bir yıllık dönemdeki ortalama hisse senedi performansı %79, medyan hisse senedi performansı %32 olmuştur. Araştırma bulguları ChatGPT’nin belli seviyede değerleme yeteneği olduğuna işaret etse de elde edilen sonuçların istatistiksel anlamlılık derecesi düşüktür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ChatGPT, Borsa İstanbul, Yapay Zeka (AI) Araçları, Değerleme

CAN ChatGPT BE USED FOR STOCK VALUATION? A RESEARCH ON BORSA ISTANBUL

Öz

Today, technology is advancing rapidly. Many jobs done by humans can be done much faster and more precisely by computers. Models such as ChatGPT, which have natural language processing capability, can also perform mathematical operations, and read and interpret tables. This research has investigated how successful ChatGPT is in valuing stocks using companies' financial statements. In the research, historical financial statement data was given to ChatGPT, and a fair market value estimation was requested. Then, the difference between the fair market value estimated by ChatGPT and the current market value was determined. It has been investigated to what extent this difference can predict stock returns in the following year. According to the research findings, the average stock performance of the shares determined to be traded at a discount by ChatGPT in the subsequent one-year period was 87%, and the median stock performance was 38%. The average stock performance of the shares determined to be traded at a premium by ChatGPT in the following one-year period was 79%, and the median stock performance was 32%. Although the research findings indicate that ChatGPT has a certain level of valuation ability, the statistical significance of the obtained results is low.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ChatGPT, Borsa İstanbul, Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools, Valuation

Kaynakça

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