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The Belt and Road Initiative’s impact on income and consumption within the Organization of Turkic States

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 38, 19 - 36, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1125706

Öz

This study aims to investigate the interactions of per capita income and consumption of the Organization of Turkic States with each other and China based on the BRI framework. To this end, we construct our analysis on a data set that includes per capita of GDP and consumption across 6 countries (including China) covering the period 1990-2019. We utilize a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) dynamic connectedness. The analysis results: (i) while there is generally a more fluctuating relationship in both consumption and income variables of the countries pre-2010 period, there is a more regular relationship in the following period (ii) when China is included into the group, improvements are observed at almost all connectedness levels. The contribution of this article is being the first study to examine the impact of the BRI initiative on GDP and consumption expenditures in the Turkish States. While previous findings have mostly relied on studies from all BRI countries, this study has focused on a specific group of countries. In addition, the relationship between income and consumption between countries was examined using a unique empirical approach.

Kaynakça

  • Aarhaug, J. & Gundersen, F. (2017). Infrastructure investments to promote sustainable regions. Transportation Research Procedia, 26, 187-195.
  • Antonakakis, N., Chatziantoniou, I. & Gabauer, D. (2020). Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(4), 84.
  • Arbués, P., Baños, J. F. & Mayor, M. (2015). The spatial productivity of transportation infrastructure. Transportation Research Part A, 75, 166-177.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is Public Expenditure Productive. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 177-200.
  • Belt and Road Portal, (2021). https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/zchj/qwfb/86739.htm, (accessed: 21 December 2021).
  • Beyzatlar, M. A. (2020) Türkiye’de Ulaşım ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Arasındaki Yayılma Etkileri. Akıllı Ulaşım Sistemleri ve Uygulamaları Dergisi, 3(1), 1-23.
  • Beyzatlar, M. A., Karacal, M. & Yetkiner, H. (2014). Granger-causality between transportation and GDP: A panel data approach. Transportation Research Part A, 63, 43-55.
  • Bottasso, A., Conti, M., Ferrari, C. & Tei, A. (2014). Ports and regional development: A spatial analysis on a panel of European regions. Transportation Research Part A, 65, 44-55.
  • Çelebi, D. (2019). The role of logistics performance in promoting trade. Maritime Economics & Logistics, 21(3), 307-323
  • Del Bo, C. F. & Florio, M. (2012). Infrastructure and Growth in a Spatial Framework: Evidence from the EU regions. European Planning Studies, 20(8), 1393-1414.
  • Diebold, F. X. & Yilmaz, K. (2012). Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57-66.
  • Diebold, F. X. & Yılmaz, K. (2014). On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms. Journal of econometrics, 182(1), 119-134.
  • Fedderke, J. W., Perkins, P. & Luiz, J. M. (2006). Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875–2001. World development, 34(6), 1037-1059.
  • Forkenbrock, D. J. & Foster, N. S. (1990). Economic benefits of a corridor highway investment. Transportation Research Part A: General, 24(4), 303-312.
  • Hong, Z. (2016). China's one belt one road: An overview of the debate. ISEAS Publishing, 7-33.
  • Huang, Y. (2016). Understanding China's Belt & Road Initiative: motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review, 40, 314-321.
  • Huseynov, R. (2017). Azerbaijan - Kazakhstan relations: current situation and prospects. Przeglad Politologiczny, (3), 139-160.
  • Kadılar, R. & Ergüney, E. (2017). One Belt One Road Initiative: Perks and Chalenges for Turkey. Turkish Policy Quarterly, 16(2), 87.
  • Kassenova, N. (2017). China's Silk Road and Kazakhstan's Bright Path: Linking Dreams of Prosperity. Asia Policy, 24(1), 110-116.
  • Kembayev, Z. (2020). Development of China-Kazakhstan Cooperation. Problems of Post-Communism, 67(3), 204-216.
  • Kulaksız, S. (2019). Financial Integration via Belt and Road Initiative: China–Turkey Cooperation. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 11(1-2), 48-64.
  • Kuzu, S. & Önder, E. (2014). Research into the long-run relationship between logistics development and economic growth in Turkey. Journal of Logistics Management, 3(1), 11-16.
  • Lam, J. S. L., Cullinane, K. P. B. & Lee, P. T.W. (2018). The 21st-century Maritime Silk Road: challenges and opportunities for transport management and practice. Transport Reviews, 38(4), 413-415.
  • Li, K. X., Jin, M., Qi, G., Shi, W. & Ng, A. K. (2017). Logistics as a driving force for development under the belt and road initiative–the Chinese model for developing countries. Transport Reviews, 38(4), 457-478.
  • Li, K. X., Lin, K. C., Jin, M., Yuen, K. F., Yang, Z. & Xiao, Y. (2020). Impact of the belt and road initiative on commercial maritime power. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 135, 160-167.
  • Lianlei, B. (2016). Azerbaijan in the Silk Road Economic Belt: A Chinese Perspective. Caucasus International, 6(1), 27-39.
  • Liu, X., Chen, Y. & Wang, X. (2019). Research on China-Kazakhstan Trade under "The Belt and Road Initiative" Based on the Perspective of Factor Endowment Theory. International Conference on Management Science and Industrial Economy (MSIE 2019), 270-274.
  • Nedopil, C. (2022). “Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative”; Shanghai, Green Finance & Development Center, FISF Fudan University, www.greenfdc.org
  • Niebuhr, A. (2006). Market access and regional disparities: new economic geography in Europe. Ann. Regional Sci., 40, 313-334
  • Perkins, P., Fedderke, J., & Luiz, J. (2005). An analysis of economic infrastructure investment in South Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), 211-228.
  • Tong, T., Yu, T. H. E., Cho, S. H., Jensen, K. & Ugarte, D. D. L. T. (2013). Evaluating the spatial spillover effects of transportation infrastructure on agricultural output across the United States. Journal of Transport Geography, 30, 47-55.
  • Vision and Actions on jointly building Belt and Road, (2017). http://2017.beltandroadforum.org/english/n100/2017/0410/c22-45-3.html (accessed: 15 May 2022)
  • Vogelsang, T. J. (1993). Essays on testing for nonstationarities and structural change in time series models. Princeton University.
  • Wang, C., Lim, M. K., Zhang, X., Zhao, L. & Lee, P. T. W. (2020a). Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 134, 288-307.
  • Wang, X., Wong, Y. D., Yuen, K. F. & Li, K. X. (2020b). Environmental governance of transportation infrastructure under Belt and Road Initiative: A unified framework. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 139, 189-199.
  • Wang, C., Kim, Y. S. & Kim, C. Y. (2021). Causality between logistics infrastructure and economic development in China. Transport Policy, 100, 49-58.
  • Xu, X. & Wang, Y. (2017). Study on spatial spillover effects of logistics industry development for economic growth in the Yangtze River delta city cluster based on spatial durbin model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(12), 1508.
  • Yang, D., Jiang, L. & Ng, A. K. (2018). One Belt One Road, but several routes: A case study of new emerging trade corridors connecting the Far East to Europe. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 117, 190-204.
  • Yu, N., De Jong, M., Storm, S. & Mi, J. (2013). Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure: evidence from Chinese regions. Journal of Transport Geography, 28, 56-66.
  • Zhang, X. (2008). Transport infrastructure, spatial spillover and economic growth: Evidence from China. Frontiers of Economics in China, 3(4), 585-597.
  • Zhang, X., Zhang, W. & Lee, P. T. W. (2020). Importance rankings of nodes in the China Railway Express network under the Belt and Road Initiative. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 139, 134-147.
  • Zhao, J., Yu, Y., Wang, X. & Kan, X. (2017). Economic impacts of accessibility gains: Case study of the Yangtze River Delta. Habitat international, 66, 65-75.

Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi’nin Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı’nın gelir ve tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 38, 19 - 36, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1125706

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı’na üye ülkelerin kişi başına düşen gelir ve tüketimlerinin kendi aralarında ve Çin ile olan etkileşimlerinin ve yayılma etkilerinin BRI çerçevesine dayalı olarak araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla, çalışmanın analiz kısmı Çin dahil olmak üzere 6 ülkenin 1990-2019 arasındaki dönemi kapsayan kişi başına düşen gelir ve tüketimi içeren bir veri seti üzerinde kurgulanmaktadır. Zamanla değişen vektör otoregresif (TVP-VAR) dinamik bağlantılılık yaklaşımından yararlanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları: (a) 2010 öncesi dönemde üye ülkelerin hem tüketim hem de gelir değişkenlerinde genel olarak daha dalgalı bir etkileşim varken, sonraki dönemde daha düzenli bir ilişki gözlemlenmektedir (b) Çin’in analiz grubuna dahil edilmesiyle birlikte ise, neredeyse tüm bağlantılılık seviyelerinde iyileşmeler olduğu görülmektedir. Bu makalenin literatüre katkısı; BRI girişiminin Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı'na üye ülkelerin GSYİH ve tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkisini inceleyen ilk çalışma olmasıdır. Daha önceki bulgular çoğunlukla tüm BRI ülkelerinin çalışmalarına dayanmakta iken sadece belirli bir ülke grubuna odaklanan böyle bir çalışma ilk defa yapılmıştır. Ayrıca özgün bir ampirik yaklaşım kullanılarak ülkelerarası gelir ve tüketim ilişkisi incelenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Aarhaug, J. & Gundersen, F. (2017). Infrastructure investments to promote sustainable regions. Transportation Research Procedia, 26, 187-195.
  • Antonakakis, N., Chatziantoniou, I. & Gabauer, D. (2020). Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(4), 84.
  • Arbués, P., Baños, J. F. & Mayor, M. (2015). The spatial productivity of transportation infrastructure. Transportation Research Part A, 75, 166-177.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is Public Expenditure Productive. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 177-200.
  • Belt and Road Portal, (2021). https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/zchj/qwfb/86739.htm, (accessed: 21 December 2021).
  • Beyzatlar, M. A. (2020) Türkiye’de Ulaşım ve Ekonomik Göstergeler Arasındaki Yayılma Etkileri. Akıllı Ulaşım Sistemleri ve Uygulamaları Dergisi, 3(1), 1-23.
  • Beyzatlar, M. A., Karacal, M. & Yetkiner, H. (2014). Granger-causality between transportation and GDP: A panel data approach. Transportation Research Part A, 63, 43-55.
  • Bottasso, A., Conti, M., Ferrari, C. & Tei, A. (2014). Ports and regional development: A spatial analysis on a panel of European regions. Transportation Research Part A, 65, 44-55.
  • Çelebi, D. (2019). The role of logistics performance in promoting trade. Maritime Economics & Logistics, 21(3), 307-323
  • Del Bo, C. F. & Florio, M. (2012). Infrastructure and Growth in a Spatial Framework: Evidence from the EU regions. European Planning Studies, 20(8), 1393-1414.
  • Diebold, F. X. & Yilmaz, K. (2012). Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57-66.
  • Diebold, F. X. & Yılmaz, K. (2014). On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms. Journal of econometrics, 182(1), 119-134.
  • Fedderke, J. W., Perkins, P. & Luiz, J. M. (2006). Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875–2001. World development, 34(6), 1037-1059.
  • Forkenbrock, D. J. & Foster, N. S. (1990). Economic benefits of a corridor highway investment. Transportation Research Part A: General, 24(4), 303-312.
  • Hong, Z. (2016). China's one belt one road: An overview of the debate. ISEAS Publishing, 7-33.
  • Huang, Y. (2016). Understanding China's Belt & Road Initiative: motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review, 40, 314-321.
  • Huseynov, R. (2017). Azerbaijan - Kazakhstan relations: current situation and prospects. Przeglad Politologiczny, (3), 139-160.
  • Kadılar, R. & Ergüney, E. (2017). One Belt One Road Initiative: Perks and Chalenges for Turkey. Turkish Policy Quarterly, 16(2), 87.
  • Kassenova, N. (2017). China's Silk Road and Kazakhstan's Bright Path: Linking Dreams of Prosperity. Asia Policy, 24(1), 110-116.
  • Kembayev, Z. (2020). Development of China-Kazakhstan Cooperation. Problems of Post-Communism, 67(3), 204-216.
  • Kulaksız, S. (2019). Financial Integration via Belt and Road Initiative: China–Turkey Cooperation. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 11(1-2), 48-64.
  • Kuzu, S. & Önder, E. (2014). Research into the long-run relationship between logistics development and economic growth in Turkey. Journal of Logistics Management, 3(1), 11-16.
  • Lam, J. S. L., Cullinane, K. P. B. & Lee, P. T.W. (2018). The 21st-century Maritime Silk Road: challenges and opportunities for transport management and practice. Transport Reviews, 38(4), 413-415.
  • Li, K. X., Jin, M., Qi, G., Shi, W. & Ng, A. K. (2017). Logistics as a driving force for development under the belt and road initiative–the Chinese model for developing countries. Transport Reviews, 38(4), 457-478.
  • Li, K. X., Lin, K. C., Jin, M., Yuen, K. F., Yang, Z. & Xiao, Y. (2020). Impact of the belt and road initiative on commercial maritime power. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 135, 160-167.
  • Lianlei, B. (2016). Azerbaijan in the Silk Road Economic Belt: A Chinese Perspective. Caucasus International, 6(1), 27-39.
  • Liu, X., Chen, Y. & Wang, X. (2019). Research on China-Kazakhstan Trade under "The Belt and Road Initiative" Based on the Perspective of Factor Endowment Theory. International Conference on Management Science and Industrial Economy (MSIE 2019), 270-274.
  • Nedopil, C. (2022). “Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative”; Shanghai, Green Finance & Development Center, FISF Fudan University, www.greenfdc.org
  • Niebuhr, A. (2006). Market access and regional disparities: new economic geography in Europe. Ann. Regional Sci., 40, 313-334
  • Perkins, P., Fedderke, J., & Luiz, J. (2005). An analysis of economic infrastructure investment in South Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 73(2), 211-228.
  • Tong, T., Yu, T. H. E., Cho, S. H., Jensen, K. & Ugarte, D. D. L. T. (2013). Evaluating the spatial spillover effects of transportation infrastructure on agricultural output across the United States. Journal of Transport Geography, 30, 47-55.
  • Vision and Actions on jointly building Belt and Road, (2017). http://2017.beltandroadforum.org/english/n100/2017/0410/c22-45-3.html (accessed: 15 May 2022)
  • Vogelsang, T. J. (1993). Essays on testing for nonstationarities and structural change in time series models. Princeton University.
  • Wang, C., Lim, M. K., Zhang, X., Zhao, L. & Lee, P. T. W. (2020a). Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 134, 288-307.
  • Wang, X., Wong, Y. D., Yuen, K. F. & Li, K. X. (2020b). Environmental governance of transportation infrastructure under Belt and Road Initiative: A unified framework. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 139, 189-199.
  • Wang, C., Kim, Y. S. & Kim, C. Y. (2021). Causality between logistics infrastructure and economic development in China. Transport Policy, 100, 49-58.
  • Xu, X. & Wang, Y. (2017). Study on spatial spillover effects of logistics industry development for economic growth in the Yangtze River delta city cluster based on spatial durbin model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(12), 1508.
  • Yang, D., Jiang, L. & Ng, A. K. (2018). One Belt One Road, but several routes: A case study of new emerging trade corridors connecting the Far East to Europe. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 117, 190-204.
  • Yu, N., De Jong, M., Storm, S. & Mi, J. (2013). Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure: evidence from Chinese regions. Journal of Transport Geography, 28, 56-66.
  • Zhang, X. (2008). Transport infrastructure, spatial spillover and economic growth: Evidence from China. Frontiers of Economics in China, 3(4), 585-597.
  • Zhang, X., Zhang, W. & Lee, P. T. W. (2020). Importance rankings of nodes in the China Railway Express network under the Belt and Road Initiative. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 139, 134-147.
  • Zhao, J., Yu, Y., Wang, X. & Kan, X. (2017). Economic impacts of accessibility gains: Case study of the Yangtze River Delta. Habitat international, 66, 65-75.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Bahar Taş 0000-0002-1743-2358

Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar 0000-0002-8434-8447

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 31 Ocak 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ocak 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Sayı: 38

Kaynak Göster

APA Taş, B., & Beyzatlar, M. A. (2023). The Belt and Road Initiative’s impact on income and consumption within the Organization of Turkic States. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(38), 19-36. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1125706


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