Türkiye Niçin ve Nasıl Balistik Füzelere Yöneldi?

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 56, 3 - 22, 01.12.2017

Sıtkı Egeli

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.515808

Cited By: 1

Öz

1980’li yıllardan itibaren yakın coğrafyasında balistik füzelerin hızla yaygınlaşması ve bunlardan bazılarının çatışmalarda kullanılmasına yanıt olarak Türkiye, asimetrik karşılığın yanısıra simetrik karşılık seçeneğine yönelmiş ve kendi balistik füzelerini geliştirme yoluna gitmiştir. İlaveten, son 10-15 yılda kaydedilen teknolojik gelişmeler, görece kısa menzilli balistik füzeleri Türkiye gibi hava gücü imkânları gelişmiş ülkeler açısından bile cazip silah sistemleri haline getirmektedir. Türkiye, 1990’larda başlattığı çok aşamalı füze geliştirme programı sayesinde, 300 km menzilli balistik füzeler konuşlandırmıştır. Daha uzun menzilli türevlerin geliştirilmesine devam edilmektedir. Diğer taraftan; jeostratejik, teknolojik, maliyet ve dış ilişkiler gibi kıstasların kesişme noktasında, Türkiye’nin konuşlandıracağı balistik füzeler için en uygun menzil aralığı olarak takribi 800 kilometre rakamı belirginleşmektedir. Son dönemde gündeme gelen çok daha uzun menzilli (örneğin 2,500km) balistik füzeler edinilmesine yönelik çağrılarsa, Türkiye’nin jeostratejik şartları ve güvenlik hedefleriyle tam manasıyla örtüşmemektedir. Kapsamlı maliyet-yarar analizlerinden ziyade basit rekabet refleksine dayandığı izlenimi yaratan bu çağrılar, uluslararası camiada Türkiye’nin nükleer silah emelleri beslemeye başladığına dair şüpheleri ciddileştirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Balistik Füzeler, Kitle İmha Silahları, Caydırıcılık (Strateji), Türk Savunma Politikası, Füze Savunması

Turkey Embarks Upon Ballistic Missiles: Why and How?

Öz

From the late-1980s, and in response to the rapid spread of ballistic missiles in her neighborhood, Turkey has opted to add a symmetrical ingredient to her traditional policy of asymmetrical response, and began developing and deploying her own ballistic missiles. Additionally, thanks to the rapid technological progress during the last 10-15 years, shorter range ballistic missiles have been rendered attractive weapon systems even for countries like Turkey with access to advanced air power assets. Thanks to multi-phased development program, Turkey has recently deployed ballistic missile with a range of up to 300 km, whereas development work has been underway on longer-range derivatives. Paying tribute to geostrategic, technological, cost, and foreign policy considerations, the optimum range bracket for Turkey’s ballistic missiles appears to be around 800 kilometers. Recent calls for ballistic missiles of much longer ranges (e.g. 2,500 km) do not correspond to Turkey’s geostrategic and security circumstances. Rather than being the products of careful cost-benefit analyses, those calls appear to be the outcomes of unarticulated competitive reasoning and instincts. Combined with controversial and puzzling statements coming from the individuals close to Turkey’s top decision-making circles, they are seen and treated as further signs of Turkey’s latent nuclear weapon aspirations. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ballistic Missiles, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Deterrence (Strategy), Turkish Defense Policy, Missile Defense

Kaynakça

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