Research Article

Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation

Volume: 8 Number: 1 September 11, 2026
TR EN

Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation

Abstract

Transportation services play a key role in the operation of the modern economy, but their environmental impacts are also becoming more and more challenging to reconcile with the global decarbonization targets. This paper investigates the trends in the economic growth-carbon emissions relationship from two complementary angles: the conventional Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and a transport-adjusted EKC that separates the moderating effect of the transport sector’s competitiveness. The Westerlund (2007) cointegration test is conducted on 121 countries categorized regionally based on their emissions data, in the panel between 2014 and 2024, and the results validate the existence of a stable long-run relationship in each panel. We use Driscoll-Kraay estimation as the main methodology, and panel quantile regression (PQR) as a robustness check to account for possible cross-sectional dependence and distributional heterogeneity. We find significant regional variation, with the traditional inverted-U relationship between growth and emissions for Africa and the Americas, and the turning points already surmounted by higher-income economies, but a positive growth-emissions relationship throughout for European countries, a reflection, we show, of the omission of the transport channel. The transport-adjusted model corrects this by showing the same inverted-U pattern for Africa, the Americas and Asia and Pacific at broadly similar turning points as the baseline model but showing that the turning point for transport-sector emissions in Europe is not observed, even at the highest incomes. This comparison shows that a region’s total emissions curve can conceal a long-term mismatch between growth and decarbonization rates, particularly in transport, and that transport-sector decoupling lags behind the economy’s apparent progress in advanced economies.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

No funding available

Ethical Statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

References

  1. Abdullah, M. A., Han, X., Amjad, M. A., Aslam, B., & Dong, X. (2026). Interconnections between economic growth, human, and sustainable development: Implications for carbon intensity reduction in upper‐middle and high‐income countries. Sustainable Development, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.71216
  2. Afzal, M., An-Vo, D. A., Mushtaq, S., Mai, T., & Amjad, M. A. (2026). Achieving sustainable development through electrification: A non-linear analysis of electrification and health vulnerability in developing countries. Energy Reports, 16, 109445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2026.109445
  3. Akhter, M. J., ur Rehman, H., & Abbas, Q. (2022). The multidimensional assessment of sustainable energy poverty and its impact on economic development. Journal of Business & Economics, 14(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.5311/JBE.2022.27.6
  4. Andrés, L., & Padilla, E. (2018). Driving factors of GHG emissions in the EU transport activity. Transport Policy, 61, 60-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.10.008
  5. Asghar, N., Amjad, M. A., & ur Rehman, H. (2023). An asymmetric analysis of renewable energy in mitigating carbon emissions in Pakistan. iRASD Journal of Economics, 5(3), 713-724. https://doi.org/10.52131/joe.2023.0503.0156
  6. Becattini, V., Gabrielli, P., & Mazzotti, M. (2021). Role of carbon capture, storage, and utilization to enable a net-zero-CO2-emissions aviation sector. Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, 60(18), 6848-6862. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.0c05392
  7. Becken, S., & Shuker, J. (2019). A framework to help destinations manage carbon risk from aviation emissions. Tourism Management, 71, 294-304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.10.023
  8. Bradshaw, S. (2023). Next generation aircraft propulsion: A Pratt & Whitney approach. AM&P Technical Articles, 181(2), 12-16. https://doi.org/10.31399/asm.amp.2023-02.p012

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Environmental Economy

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

September 11, 2026

Submission Date

April 23, 2026

Acceptance Date

August 17, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 8 Number: 1

APA
Akhter, M. J., Asghar, N., Rehman, H. U., & Amjad, M. A. (2026). Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.54821/bes.1936752
AMA
1.Akhter MJ, Asghar N, Rehman HU, Amjad MA. Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation. BES JOURNAL. 2026;8(1). doi:10.54821/bes.1936752
Chicago
Akhter, Muhammad Javeed, Nabila Asghar, Hafeez Ur Rehman, and Muhammad Asif Amjad. 2026. “Technological Transport-Adjusted Environmental Kuznets Curve Dynamics: New Insights for Global Carbon Emission Mitigation”. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies 8 (1). https://doi.org/10.54821/bes.1936752.
EndNote
Akhter MJ, Asghar N, Rehman HU, Amjad MA (September 11, 2026) Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies 8 1
IEEE
[1]M. J. Akhter, N. Asghar, H. U. Rehman, and M. A. Amjad, “Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation”, BES JOURNAL, vol. 8, no. 1, Sept. 2026, doi: 10.54821/bes.1936752.
ISNAD
Akhter, Muhammad Javeed - Asghar, Nabila - Rehman, Hafeez Ur - Amjad, Muhammad Asif. “Technological Transport-Adjusted Environmental Kuznets Curve Dynamics: New Insights for Global Carbon Emission Mitigation”. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies 8/1 (September 11, 2026). https://doi.org/10.54821/bes.1936752.
JAMA
1.Akhter MJ, Asghar N, Rehman HU, Amjad MA. Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation. BES JOURNAL. 2026;8. doi:10.54821/bes.1936752.
MLA
Akhter, Muhammad Javeed, et al. “Technological Transport-Adjusted Environmental Kuznets Curve Dynamics: New Insights for Global Carbon Emission Mitigation”. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, vol. 8, no. 1, Sept. 2026, doi:10.54821/bes.1936752.
Vancouver
1.Muhammad Javeed Akhter, Nabila Asghar, Hafeez Ur Rehman, Muhammad Asif Amjad. Technological transport-adjusted environmental Kuznets curve dynamics: New insights for global carbon emission mitigation. BES JOURNAL. 2026 Sep. 11;8(1). doi:10.54821/bes.1936752


28007

BES JOURNAL-International Journal of Business and Economic Studies is licensed with Creavtive Commons (CC) Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0).