BREXIT: EKONOMİK ÇÖZÜLME VEYA YENİDEN DİRİLİŞİN İLK ADIMI

Abstract

Brexit’in Birleşik Krallık ekonomisine etkisini inceleyen bu çalışma, genel olarak ekonomistlerin yaptığı hesaplamalara baktıktan sonra, Birleşik Krallık hükümetinin “AB’den Ayrılmanın Uzun Dönemli Ekonomik Analizi” adı altında AB ile gelecekteki ilişkilerinin ekonomik etkilerinin değerlendirildiği raporun sonuçlarına yoğunlaşmaktadır. Raporda yapılan analizde dört temel senaryo değerlendirilmiştir. Ilk senaryo olan Beyaz Sayfa (White Paper) modeline göre, Birleşik Krallık, Avrupa Birliği ile gümrüksüz ticaret sürdürebilir; mal ticaretinde mevzuat uyumu bugünkü düzenlemelere büyük ölçüde benzer. Ortalama Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması (Free Trade) Modeli değerlendirmesinde ise, sıfır-gümrük, fakat AB Gümrük Birliğinin dışında olmanın getirdiği tarife dışı engellerin yaratacağı maliyetler hesaba katılmıştır. Avrupa Ekonomik Alanı- AEA (European Economic Area- EEA) Modeline dayanan üçüncü senaryoda, Birleşik Krallık Gümrük Birliği dışında olup Avrupa Ekonomik Alanı (AEA) ve EFTA’ya dahil olacaktır. Anlaşmanın olmadığı (No Deal) Modeline göre, ki bu sert Brexit olur, Birleşik Krallık-AB ticaretinde mallar için ortalama AB’de uygulanan “En Çok Tercih Edilen Ülke (MFN)” tarife oranları kabul edilmektedir. Makale, Brexit’in Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve bölgeleri uzerindeki etkilerine de değinmektedir. Sonuçta Brexit tüm Avrupa’da ekonomik büyümeyi ve refahı etkileyecektir.

Keywords

• Brexit
• Birleşik Krallık
• Avrupa Birliği
• Beyaz Sayfa Modeli
• Ortalama Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması Modeli
• Avrupa Ekonomik Alanı Modeli
• Anlaşmanın Olmadığı Model
• İngiliz Uluslar Topluluğu

Brexit: Economic Disintegration or First Step towards New Beginning

Abstract

This paper looks at the possible scenarios of Brexit on UK economy based on the studies by known economists in general and then focuses on the UK Government, EU Exit Long-term economic analysis November 2018. The paper considers four analytical scenarios of this study. The first scenario is based on the policy position set out in the 2018 White Paper,“modelled White Paper”; a hypothetical FTA, with zero tariffs, reflecting average NTB costs such as standard customs arrangements with the EU, regulatory and other costs, namely “modelled average FTA”; a “Modelled EEAtype” scenario, which reflects the UK being outside of the Customs Union, reflecting the average NTB costs, such as of standard customs arrangements with the EU, and a “Modelled No deal “ scenario, based on an assessment of average NTB costs between countries trading on non-preferential World Trade Organization (WTO) terms and applying EU Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs. The paper also briefly looks at the impact of Brexit on the European countries and different regions and concludes that Brexit will have impact on the economic growth and welfare both in UK and in Europe.

Keywords

• Brexit
• United Kingdom
• European Union
• Modelled White Paper
• Modelled Average FTA
• Modelled EEA-type
• Modelled No Deal
• Commonwealth Countries

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