Time Series Analysis: A Case Study on Forecasting Turkey’s Inflation and Unemployment

Year 2015, Issue: 37, 67 - 75, 01.01.2015

Barkat Ali Tuğba Altıntaş

Abstract

Bir ülkenin ekonomik strateji ve politikaları düşük enflasyonla birlikte tam istihdam ve güvenli ekonominin en önemli faktörüdür. Bu çalışma 2000 yılı ile 2014 yılı arası işsizlik ve enflasyona odaklanmıştır. 2000-2014 periyodu için istatistiksel veri Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu web sitesinden alınmıştır. Araştırmanın ilk amacı 2015 ve 2016 yılları için enflasyon ve işsizliği tahmin etmektir. Eflasyon ve işsizlik bir zaman serileri yöntemi olan otoregresif model ile tahmin edilmiştir. Araştırmanın ikinci amacı 2000-2014 periyodu için işsizlik ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkiyi belirlemektir. Bunun için 2014 yılına ait verilerle basit doğrusal regresyon analizi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisinde işsizliğin enflasyonu negative yönde etkilediğini göstermiş ve işsizlik ile enflasyon arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olduğu görülmüştür

Keywords

İşsizlik, Enflasyon, Phillips eğrisi, Otoregresif zaman serileri

Time Series Analysis: A Case Study on Forecasting Turkey’s Inflation and Unemployment

Abstract

Economic strategies and policies of a country is the most important factor of complete employment and secure economy throughout low inflation. This case study focused on unemployment and inflation for a particular period from 2000 to 2014. Statistical data for the period 2000 to 2014 was collected from a Turkish statistical institute website. The first intention of this research is to forecast inflation and unemployment for 2015 and 2016. Inflation and unemployment has forecasted by autoregressive model as a time series method. The second intention of this research is to determine the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Turkey for the period 2000 to 2014, through Phillips curve, which is conducted in 2014 and the simple linear regression analysis were used. The result shows that unemployment negatively effects inflation in Turkey economy and it was seen that there was a statistically significant relationship between inflation and unemployment.

Keywords

Unemployment, Inflation, Phillips curve, Autoregressive time series model

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