Tüketici Fiyatları Endeksi ve Üretici Fiyatları Endeksi Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Merkez ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri (CEECs) Örneği

Year 2020, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 319 - 332, 31.12.2020

Asli Ozpolat

Abstract

Tüketici fiyat endeksi ve üretici fiyat endeksleri mal ve hizmetlerdeki fiyat değişimlerini ifade eden önemli endeksleridir. Bu endeksler aracılığı ile merkez bankaları fiyat değişimlerini gözlemlemektedir. Ancak genellikle merkez bankaları fiyat değişimlerini tüketici fiyat endeksi üzerinden inceleme eğilimindedir. Bu çalışmada bu iki endeks arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri için 1992-2017 yılları arasında TÜFE ve ÜFE arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Analizde değişkenler arasındaki ilişki panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik testleri ile tahmin edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri için TÜFE ve ÜFE arasında uzun dönemli ve çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi, Üretici Fiyat Endeksi, Panel Eşbütünleşme, CEECs Ülkeleri

Causal Link Between Consumer Prices Index and Producer Prices Index: An Evidence From Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs )

Abstract

Consumer price index and producer price index are important indices state that the price changes in goods and services. Central banks observe price changes through these indices. However, generally, central banks tend to examine price changes through the consumer price index. In this study, the relationship between these two indices has been investigated. For this aim, the paper is assessed CPI and PPI nexus for the annual series with data ranging from 1992 to 2017 for Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). In this phase, the long-run relationship among variables is analyzed by Panel Cointegration Test and Panel Causality Test. The empirical findings reveal that there is a long run and bilateral causality of the PPI and CPI in CEECs.

Keywords

Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, Panel Cointegration, Panel Causality, CEECs

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