İklim Değişikliği Ekonomik Büyüme ve Gıda Fiyatları Döngüsü: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 301 - 330, 31.12.2023

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya

https://doi.org/10.31679/adamakademi.1179375

Abstract

İklim değişikliği dünya ülkelerini ilgilendiren önemli bir sorun olduğu gibi tarımsal üretim ve ekonomi üzerindeki etkileriyle de insanların refahını, sağlığını ve gelecek beklentilerini etkilemektedir. Bu doğrultuda 1990-2019 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada Türkiye’de iklim değişikliği ve ekonomik büyüme (Reel GSYH) ile gıda fiyatları endeksi arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Gıda fiyatları endeksi, iklim değişikliğini temsilen karbondioksit emisyonu, sıcaklık ve tarım alanı serileri ile büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler ARDL modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümenin gıda fiyatları endeksi üzerindeki etkisi iklim değişikliğinin gıda fiyatları endeksi üzerindeki etkisinden daha düşüktür. Uzun dönemde karbondioksit miktarındaki değişimin gıda fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi anlamsız olmakla olası sıcaklık ve tarım alanlarındaki artış gıda fiyatlarının da artmasına neden olacaktır. Kısa dönemde ise geçmiş üç dönemde sıcaklıkta meydana gelecek artış cari dönem gıda fiyatlarının düşmesine neden olurken; bir dönem önceki tarım alanlarındaki azalma gıda fiyatlarının yükselmesine neden olacaktır. Gıda fiyatlarının iklim değişikliğinden daha fazla etkilendiği görülmektedir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Türkiye, ARDL Modeli, İklim Değişikliği

Climate Change, Economic Growth and the Food Price Cycle: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

"Climate change" is a severe, worldwide problem that affects people's welfare, health, and future expectations with its effects on agricultural production and the economy. In this direction, the current study covering the period 1990-2019 examined the long- and short-term relationships between "Climate change," "Economic growth (Real GDP)," and "Food price index" in Turkiye. In the study, correlations between Climate change indicators-carbon dioxide emission, temperature, agricultural area series-Food price index, and Economic growth were estimated with the ARDL model. According to the ARDL boundary test results, the "effect of Economic growth on the Food price index" is lower than the "effect of Climate change on the Food price index" in the long run. In the long run, the "effect of changing carbon dioxide amount" on "food prices" is insignificant. "A probable rising temperature and expanding agricultural areas" will raise "food prices." In the short term, "the temperature rising in the past three periods" will cause "current period food prices" to fall, while "the decrease in agricultural areas in the previous period" will cause "food prices to rise." The study observed that "Food prices" have been more affected by "Climate changes."

Keywords

Climate Change, Economıc Growth, Türkey, ARDL Model, Food Prices

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