Hollanda Hastalığı Hipotezi Türk Ekonomisi İçin Geçeli mi ?: Portföy Yatırımları, Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi

Year 2019, , 8 - 38, 31.03.2019

Ali Konak

https://doi.org/10.33722/afes.531548

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmada son yıllarda
ortaya çıkan gelişmeler doğrultusunda Türkiye açısından Hollanda hastalığı sorunu,  Tarım sektörü açısından değerlendirilmiştir.
Bu değerlendirme yapılırken 1990-2015 dönemine ait kişi başına gelir, sanayi
üretim endeksi, enflasyon, döviz kuru ve bütün bunların bir yansıması olarak
dış ticaret verilerinden yararlanarak ve panel veri analizi yöntemi
kullanılarak Hollanda hastalığının tarım sektörü üzerindeki ortaya çıkabilme (varlığı) test edilmiştir.
Çalışmada yapılan analiz neticesinde, Türkiye’ye giren sıcak para miktarındaki
artışın, tarım sektörünü olumsuz
yönde etkilediği ve Türkiye’de tarım sektörü açısından Hollanda hastalığı sorunun söz konusu olduğu sonucuna
ulaşılmıştır. 

Keywords

Hollanda hastalığı, Ekonomik büyüme, Portföy yatırımları

Is The Dutch Disease Valid for Turkey in terms of the Effects of Portfolio Investments and Export Revenues on the Manufacturing Industry?

Abstract

The
Dutch disease which emerges as a result of suddenly finding a large amount of
commercially valuable mines, is an economical issue which has an effect on
various macroeconomic variables, notably on foreign exchange rate. Although in
theory, the Dutch disease is defined as a problem caused by foreign currency
which is acquired by the detection and exportation of valuable mines in the
long term, it is possible for other economic developments which provide inflow
of foreign currency to the country to have economical effects on the national
economy that are similar to the effects of the Dutch disease. In our study in
which we question the existence of the Dutch disease due to the inflow of
foreign currency through various channels, the effects of portfolio investments
and export revenues on manufacturing industry sector were analyzed in terms of
the hypothesis of the Dutch disease by using the quarterly data of
2005:Q1-2018:Q4, obtained from the Electronic Data Delivery System (EDDS) of
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and by using Toda-Yamamoto
causality test. As a result of the analysis, there wasn’t a causal relationship
between manufacturing industry and portfolio investments and exports. For this
reason, it was concluded that the Dutch disease is out of the question for
Turkey’s economy. 

Keywords

The Dutch Disease, Industrial Production Index, Portfolio Investments, Export, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test.

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