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Year 2014, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 5 - 25, 01.06.2014

Abstract

References

  • Baum, C. F., Schaffer, M. E., and Stillman, S., 2007. Enhanced Routines for Instrumental
  • Variables / GMM Estimation and Testing. Boston College Economics Working Paper, No.667.
  • Carroll, C., Üçer, M., Rijckeghem, C. V., İmrahoroğlu, A., Duygan, B., Tunalı, İ., and Ersel,
  • H., 2008. Türkiye’de Özel Tasarruf Eğilimi: Mikro ve Makro Perspektifler. Konferans, Cey- lan Intercontinental – İstanbul.
  • Elgin,C., and Oztunali, O., 2012. Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based
  • Estimates. Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  • ICRG Database, 2010. International Country Risk Guide. The PRS Group, New York.
  • Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel, K., and Servén, L., 2000. What Drives Saving Across The
  • World?.The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82, No. 2, pp. 165-181.
  • Matur, E. P.,Sabuncu, A, and Bahçeci, S., 2012. Determinants Of Private Savings And
  • Interaction Between Public & Private Savings In Turkey. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies Vol. 14.
  • Modigliani, F., 1970. The Life-Cycle Hypothesis and Intercountry Differences in the Saving
  • Ratio in W. A. Eltis, M. FG. Scott, and J. N. Wolfe, eds., Induction, Growth, and Trade: Es- says in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod, Oxford. Oxford University Press. pp 197–225.
  • Özcan, K., M., Gunay, A., and Ertaç, S., 2003. Determinants of Private Savings Behaviour in
  • Turkey. Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Vol. 35(12), pp. 1405-1416.
  • Rajan,R. G., and Zingales, L., 1998. Financial Dependence and Growth. The American
  • Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 559-586.
  • Uygur, E., 2012. Türkiye’de Tasarrufların Seyri Ve Etkileyen Bazı Unsurlar.Türkiye
  • Ekonomi Kurumu, TartışmaMetni, Vol. 108.
  • World Bank Report, 2011. Sustaining High Growth: The Role of Domestic Savings. Turkey
  • Country Economic Memorandum. Report No. 66301-TR.
  • World Development Indicators, 2013. Data. The World Bank. <http://data.worldbank. org/indicator> (accessed 1 April 2013)
  • Private and public saving rate are calculated as in the following formulas in Turkish Ministry of Development. (Uygur, 2012)
  • • Public Savings = Disposable Public Income – Public Consumption Expenditu
  • • Disposable Public Income = Tax Revenues + Other Public Revenues – Net Transfers to the Private and External Sectors Public Savings Rate = Public Savings / GDP
  • • Private Savings = Disposable Private Income – Private Consumption Expenditures
  • • Disposable Private Income = GNP – Disposable Public Income
  • • GNP = Disposable Public Income + Disposable Private Income
  • Private Savings Rate = Private Savings / GDP

A Time Series Analysis of the Determinants of Private Savings in Turkey

Year 2014, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 5 - 25, 01.06.2014

Abstract

Private savings rate declined from an average of 23 percent of gross domestic income in the 1990s to an average of 16 percent in the 2000s in Turkey. There is a negative relationship between private and public savings rate especially for the period of 1985-1993 and 20002010 leading to Ricardian equivalence that the increase in public savings crowds out private savings, which results in unchanged domestic savings. Turkey also has a decreasing trend in domestic savings, hence there should be some other important determinants leading to decreasing private savings. The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants of private savings in Turkey to evaluate which determinants have the outmost importance for private savings and to advise policy changes in order to increase private savings to have sustainable growth in Turkey. IV/GMM Time Series Estimation is carried out for the period between 1985 and 2010 for Turkey

References

  • Baum, C. F., Schaffer, M. E., and Stillman, S., 2007. Enhanced Routines for Instrumental
  • Variables / GMM Estimation and Testing. Boston College Economics Working Paper, No.667.
  • Carroll, C., Üçer, M., Rijckeghem, C. V., İmrahoroğlu, A., Duygan, B., Tunalı, İ., and Ersel,
  • H., 2008. Türkiye’de Özel Tasarruf Eğilimi: Mikro ve Makro Perspektifler. Konferans, Cey- lan Intercontinental – İstanbul.
  • Elgin,C., and Oztunali, O., 2012. Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based
  • Estimates. Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  • ICRG Database, 2010. International Country Risk Guide. The PRS Group, New York.
  • Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel, K., and Servén, L., 2000. What Drives Saving Across The
  • World?.The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82, No. 2, pp. 165-181.
  • Matur, E. P.,Sabuncu, A, and Bahçeci, S., 2012. Determinants Of Private Savings And
  • Interaction Between Public & Private Savings In Turkey. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies Vol. 14.
  • Modigliani, F., 1970. The Life-Cycle Hypothesis and Intercountry Differences in the Saving
  • Ratio in W. A. Eltis, M. FG. Scott, and J. N. Wolfe, eds., Induction, Growth, and Trade: Es- says in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod, Oxford. Oxford University Press. pp 197–225.
  • Özcan, K., M., Gunay, A., and Ertaç, S., 2003. Determinants of Private Savings Behaviour in
  • Turkey. Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Vol. 35(12), pp. 1405-1416.
  • Rajan,R. G., and Zingales, L., 1998. Financial Dependence and Growth. The American
  • Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 559-586.
  • Uygur, E., 2012. Türkiye’de Tasarrufların Seyri Ve Etkileyen Bazı Unsurlar.Türkiye
  • Ekonomi Kurumu, TartışmaMetni, Vol. 108.
  • World Bank Report, 2011. Sustaining High Growth: The Role of Domestic Savings. Turkey
  • Country Economic Memorandum. Report No. 66301-TR.
  • World Development Indicators, 2013. Data. The World Bank. <http://data.worldbank. org/indicator> (accessed 1 April 2013)
  • Private and public saving rate are calculated as in the following formulas in Turkish Ministry of Development. (Uygur, 2012)
  • • Public Savings = Disposable Public Income – Public Consumption Expenditu
  • • Disposable Public Income = Tax Revenues + Other Public Revenues – Net Transfers to the Private and External Sectors Public Savings Rate = Public Savings / GDP
  • • Private Savings = Disposable Private Income – Private Consumption Expenditures
  • • Disposable Private Income = GNP – Disposable Public Income
  • • GNP = Disposable Public Income + Disposable Private Income
  • Private Savings Rate = Private Savings / GDP
There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA62GT22TH
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Adem Gök This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2014 Volume: 3 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Gök, A. (2014). A Time Series Analysis of the Determinants of Private Savings in Turkey. Afro Eurasian Studies, 3(1), 5-25.

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