Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of the endemic Fritillaria aurea in Türkiye

Abstract

Fritillaria aurea is a rare, high altitude, endemic, and bulbous plant species in Türkiye. Although it is classified as least concern according to IUCN criteria, the species has a narrow distribution. This study utilized ensemble modeling to forecast potential future changes in suitable habitats for F. aurea by two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1-2.6 and 5-8.5). These pathways were constructed using two General Circulation Models (GCMs) and covered the years 2035, 2055, and 2085. The results showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) have the largest influence on the potential species distribution. The ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitats of F. aurea would contract under all future SSP scenarios and it would lose almost all of its potential highly suitable distribution areas by the end of the century. The remained population of F. aurea could possibly harbour in only minor areas of the North Anatolian Mountains in the north and Taurus Mountains in the south. The results of the study could contribute to establishing conservation strategies and natural resource management policies for F. aurea against the potential impacts of climate change. The highly suitable habitats under pessimistic scenarios at the end of this century projected by the present study can be determined as protected areas for the species.

Keywords

• CMIP6
• global warming
• habitat prediction
• ensemble model
• plant species distribution

İklim değişikliğinin Türkiye’deki endemik Fritillaria aurea'nın coğrafi dağılımına etkisinin tahmin edilmesi

Abstract

Fritillaria aurea, Türkiye'de nadir bulunan, yüksek rakımlı, endemik ve soğanlı bir bitki türüdür. IUCN kriterlerine göre az endişe kategorisinde sınıflandırılmasına rağmen, dar yayılışlı bir türdür. Bu çalışma, F. aurea için uygun habitatlarda gelecekteki potansiyel değişiklikleri iki Paylaşılan Sosyo-Ekonomik Yol (SSP'ler: SSP 1-2.6 ve 5-8.5) aracılığıyla tahmin etmek için topluluk modellemeyi kullanmıştır. Bu yollar 2035, 2055 ve 2085 yıllarını kapsayan iki Genel Dolaşım Modeli (GCM) kullanılarak oluşturulmuştur. Sonuçlar, en soğuk ayın minimum sıcaklığının (bio6), en yağışlı çeyreğin ortalama sıcaklığının (bio8) ve en sıcak çeyreğin yağışının (bio18) potansiyel tür dağılımı üzerinde en büyük etkiye sahip olduğunu gösterdi. Topluluk modeli, F. aurea'nın son derece uygun habitatlarının gelecekteki tüm SSP senaryoları altında daralacağını ve yüzyılın sonuna kadar potansiyel olarak son derece uygun dağıtım alanlarının neredeyse tamamını kaybedeceğini öngördü. F. aurea’nın geriye kalan popülasyonunun kuzeyde Kuzey Anadolu Dağları’nın ve güneyde Toros Dağları'nın yalnızca çok küçük bir kısmında barınması muhtemeldir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, F. aurea'nın iklim değişikliğinin olası etkilerine karşı koruma stratejileri ve doğal kaynak yönetimi politikalarının oluşturulmasına katkı sağlayabilir. Bu çalışmanın öngördüğü, bu yüzyılın sonundaki kötümser senaryolar altında son derece uygun habitatlar, tür için korunan alanlar olarak belirlenebilir.

Keywords

• CMIP6
• küresel ısınma
• habitat tahmini
• topluluk modeli
• bitki türlerinin dağılımı

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