Stratejik Hammaddeler İçin Subjektif ve Objektif Ağırlıklandırma Kullanarak Karar Alma

Öz

Teknolojik gelişmeler, küresel kentleşme ve dinamik sosyo-ekonomik ilerlemeler ile birlikte stratejik hammaddelere (SRM) olan talebin önümüzdeki yıllarda artması beklenmekte olup, hammadde değerlendirmesini hem kaçınılmaz hem de vazgeçilmez hale getirmektedir. Bu malzemelerin kapsamlı kritikliği değerlendirmesi doğası gereği çok sayıda parametreyi, farklı hammaddeleri ve sürekli değişen değişkenleri içermektedir. Avrupa Birliği (AB), 2011 yılından itibaren kritik hammaddeler (CRM) konusunda üç yılda bir sistematik değerlendirmeler gerçekleştirmiştir. Bu çalışma, AB için hazırlanan CRM nihai raporuna odaklanmakta olup, Bizmut, Bor, Kobalt, Galyum, Germanyum, Lityum, Magnezyum, Manganez, Doğal Grafit, Bakır, Silikon, Titanyum, Tungsten ve Nikel gibi SRM’lerin ilk kez listeye dahil edildiği değerlendirmeyi incelemektedir. Bu kapsamda, gerçek veriler kullanılarak nesnel ağırlıklandırma için Entropi ve CRITIC (Kriterler Arası Korelasyon Yoluyla Kriter Önem Derecesi) yöntemleri uygulanmış, katılımcı uzmanların değerlendirmelerini sürece dâhil etmek amacıyla ise SWARA (Adım Adım Ağırlık Oranı Analizi) ve AHP (Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci) yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bu yöntemler, kritik matris içerisinde tedarik riski (SR), ekonomik önem (EI), ana tedarikçi payı, sektör payı ve katma değer ile ilişkili malzemelerin değerlendirilmesi, ikame (EI ve SR) ve ithalat bağımlılığı gibi ana kriterlerin ağırlıklarını belirlemek için kullanılmıştır. Uygulanan tüm yöntemler boyunca hesaplama sonuçları tutarlı bir biçimde tedarik riskinin, katma değerin ve ithalat bağımlılığının SRM’lerin kapsamlı değerlendirmesi ile en güçlü şekilde ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politika yapıcıların en temel kriterlere dayalı kendi kritik değerlendirmelerini uyarlamalarına rehberlik etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Stratejik ham maddeler
• kritik ham maddeler
• karar alma yöntemler

Decision-Making for Strategic Raw Materials Using Subjective and Objective Weighting

Abstract

With the technological advancements, global urbanization, and dynamic socio-economic progress, the demand for strategic raw materials (SRMs) is expected to increase in the coming years, making raw material assessment both inevitable and indispensable. The comprehensive criticality assessment of these materials inherently involves a multitude of parameters, raw materials, and constantly changing variables. European Union (EU) has systematically conducted assessments of critical raw materials (CRMs) on a triennial basis since 2011. This paper focuses on the final report on CRMs for the EU, where SRMs including Bismuth, Boron, Cobalt, Gallium, Germanium, Lithium, Magnesium, Manganese, Natural Graphite, Copper, Silicon, Titanium, Tungsten, and Nickel were first added to the list. In this context, the Entropy and CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation) methods were applied for subjective weighting using real data, while SWARA (Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis) and AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) were used to incorporate the assessments of participating experts. These methods were employed to determine the weights of the main criteria, including supply risk (SR), economic importance (EI), main supplier share, evaluation of materials linked with sector share and value-added, substitution (EI and SR), and import reliance in the criticality matrix. Across all applied methodologies, the computational results consistently converge to demonstrate that supply risk, value-added, and import reliance are most profoundly associated with the comprehensive assessment of SRMs. The findings guide policymakers in developing countries in tailoring their own criticality assessments based on the most essential criteria.

Keywords

• Strategic raw material
• critical raw materials
• decision-making methods.

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