ABD-ÇİN TİCARET SAVAŞLARININ ŞANGAY MENKUL KIYMETLER BORSASI KOMPOZİT ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Year 2019, Volume: 21 Issue: 1, 59 - 69, 28.06.2019

Serdar Öztürk , Buket Altınöz

https://doi.org/10.33707/akuiibfd.559360

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı,
ABD’nin Çin mallarına uyguladığı ithalat tarifeleri ile Çin’in ABD’den ithal
ettiği mallar üzerine uyguladığı ithalat tarifelerinin Şangay Menkul Kıymetler
Borsası Kompozit Endeksi’ne etkisinin 1991-2016 dönemi için incelenmesidir.
Çin’in ana makroekonomik değişkenleri kontrol değişken olarak seçilmiştir. Bu
amaçla, çalışmada ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımından faydalanılmıştır. Ampirik
sonuçlar, ABD tarafından uygulanan tarife oranlarındaki artışın uzun vadede Şangay
hisse senedi endeksini olumsuz yönde etkilediğini göstermiştir. Ayrıca analizde
kullanılan makroekonomik değişkenlerin ikisi olan M2 para arzı ve enflasyon
oranının borsa endeksi üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkisi olduğu tespit
edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ABD’nin Çin mallarına uyguladığı ithalat tarifelerine
dayanan ABD-Çin ticaret savaşının Çin borsasına zarar verdiği söylenebilir.
Elde edilen sonuçlarla ABD’nin bu savaşın kazananı mı yoksa kaybedeni mi olduğu
söylenememekle birlikte, Çin’in kesinlikle kaybeden taraf olduğu söylenebilir.

Keywords

ARDL, Tarife Oranları, Hisse Senedi Getirileri, ARDL

THE EFFECT OF US-CHINA TRADE WARS ON SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE INDEX

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of US import tariffs
on Chinese goods and China import tariffs on US goods on Shanghai Stock
Exchange Composite Index for the period from 1991 to 2016. It is selected
Chinese main macroeconomic variables as control variables. For this purpose, it
is used ARDL boundary testing approach in this study. Empirical results suggest
that an increase in tariffs rate applied by US affect negatively to Shanghai
stock index in the long term. In addition, broad money supply and inflation
rate, which are two of the macroeconomic variables used in the analysis, has a
positive impact on it. Consequently, the US-China trade war, which based on US
import tariffs on Chinese goods, damages for China stock market. With these results
we cannot say whether the US is a winner or loser, but we can say that China is
definitely the loser.

Keywords

Tariffs, Stock Returns, ARDL

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