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Year 2016, , 5 - 28, 20.06.2016
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.257674

Abstract

References

  • Alshabarati, Carole, and Jacek Kugler. “War Initiation in a Changing World.” International Interactions 34 (2008): 358-81.
  • Arreguín-Toft, Ivan. How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2005.
  • ———. “Unconventional Deterrence: How the Weak Deter the Strong.” In Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, edited by T. V. Paul, Patrick Morgan and James J. Wirtz, 204-21. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009.
  • Balcı, Ali. “Knowledge, Repetition and Power in Ibn al-‘Arabi’s Thought: Some Preliminary Comments on Methodology.” All Azimuth 4, no.1 (2014): 39-50.
  • Bennett, D. Scott, and Allan C. Stam III. “EUGene Documentation.” University Park, PA; Penn State University, 2007.
  • Brambor, Thomas, William Roberts Clark, and Matt Golder. “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses.” Political Analysis 14 (2006): 63-82.
  • Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1981.
  • Clark, David. H., and Patrick M. Regan. “Opportunities to Fight: A statistical technique for modeling unobservable phenomena.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47, no. 1 (2003): 94--115.
  • Clark, William, Michael Gilligan, and Matt Golder. “A Simple Multivariate Test for Asymmetric Hypotheses.” Political Analysis 14 (2006): 311-31.
  • Dror, Yehezkel. Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Issue. Lexington, MA: Heath, 1971.
  • Drukker, David M. “Testing for Serial Correlation in Linear Panel-Data Models.” The Stata Journal 3, no. 2 (2003): 168-77.
  • Fearon, James. “Signaling Versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (June1994): 236-69.
  • ———. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379-414.
  • Fordham, Benjamin O. “Strategic Conflict Avoidance and the Diversionary Use of Force.” The Journal of Politics 67 (2005): 132-53.
  • Ghosn, Faten, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. “The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2004):133-54.
  • Haldi, Stacy Bergstom. Why Wars Widen: A Theory of Predation and Balancing. Portland, OR: Frank Cass: London, 2003.
  • Hassner, Ron E. “To Halve and Hold”: Conflicts Over Sacred Space and the Problem of Indivisibility.” Security Studies 12, no. 4 (2003): 1-33.
  • Hensel, Paul R. Coding Manual for Territorial Claims Data, ICOW Project. Denton, TX: University of North Texas, 2013.
  • James, Patrick. Crisis and War. Montreal and Kingston: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 1988.
  • Karacasulu, Nilüfer. “Interpreting Turkey’s Middle East Policy in the Last Decade.” All Azimuth 4, no. 1 (2015): 27-38.
  • Karaomanoğlu, Ali, and Ersel Aydınlı. Introduction to All Azimuth 1, no. 1 (2012): 5-7.
  • Kim, Hong-Cheol. “How to Deter North Korea’s Military Provocations.” The Korean Journal of International Studies 10 (2012): 63-93.
  • Kim, Woosang. “Alliance Transition and Great Power War.” American Journal of Political Science 35 (1991): 833-50.
  • Kindleberger, Charles P. The World in Depression 1929-1939. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1973.
  • Kissinger, Henry A. “The Vietnam Negotiations.” Foreign Affairs 46 (Jan.1969): 211-34.
  • Köstem, Seҫkin. “International Relations Theories and Turkish International Relations: Observations Based on a Book.” All Azimuth 4, no. 1 (2015): 59-66.
  • Lemke, Douglas, and Suzanne Werner. “Power Parity, Commitments to Change, and War.” International Studies Quarterly 40, no. 2 (1996): 235-60.
  • Lemke, Douglas, and William Reed. “The Relevance of Politically Relevant Dyads.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (2001): 126-44.
  • Mack, Andrew. “Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict.” World Politics 27, no. 2 (1975): 175-200.
  • Monteiro, Nuno P. “Unrest Assured: Why Unipolarity is Not Peaceful.” International Security 36, no. 3 (2011): 9-40.
  • Morrow, James D. “Capabilities, Uncertainty and Resolve.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (1989): 941-72.
  • ———. “The Strategic Setting of Choices: Signaling, Commitment, and Negotiation in International Politics.” In Strategic Choice and International Relations, edited by David A. Lake and Robert Powell, 77-114. Princeton University Press, 1999.
  • Most, Benjamin A. and Harvey Starr. Inquiry, Logic, and International Politics. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press, 1989.
  • Organski, A.F.K. World Politics. New York: Knopf, 1968.
  • ———, and Jacek Kugler. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press 1980.
  • Ӧzdemir, Haluk. “An Inter-Subsystemic Approach in International Relations.” All Azimuth 4, no. 1 (2014): 5-26.
  • Pape, Robert. Bombing to Win. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1996.
  • Paul, T. V. Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
  • Powell, Robert. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60 (Winter 2006): 169-203.
  • Reed, William. “Information, Power, and War.” American Political Science Review 97, no. 4 (2003): 633-41.
  • Rosen, Steven. “War Power and the Willingness to Suffer.” In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Bruce M. Russett, 167-83. London: Sage, 1972.
  • Signorino, Curtis, and Jeffrey M. Ritter. “Tau-b or Not Tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions.” International Studies Quarterly 43, no. 1 (1999): 115-44.
  • Slantchev, Brainslav L. “The Power to Hurt: Costly Conflict with Completely Informed States.” American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 123-33.
  • ——— . “The Principles of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations.” American Political Science Review 97, no. 4 (2003): 621-32.
  • Sobek, David, and Jeremy Wells. “Dangerous Liaisons: Dyadic Power Transitions and the Risk of Militarized Disputes and Wars.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 46, no. 1 (2013): 69-92.
  • Souva, Mark. “Institutional Similarity and Interstate Conflict.” International Interactions 30 no. 3 (2004): 263-80.
  • Sullivan, Patricia L. “War Aims and War Outcomes: Why Powerful States Lose Limited Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 3 (2007): 496-524.
  • Sune, Engin. “Non-Western International Relations Theory and Ibn Khaldun.” All Azimuth 5, no. 1 (2016): 79-88.
  • Tammen, Ronald L., Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Carol Alsharabati, Brian Efird, and A. F. K. Organski. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York, NY: Chatham House, 2000.
  • Toft, Monica Duffy. The Geography of Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003.
  • Von Clausewitz, Carl. On War. Edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984.
  • Wagner, Harrison R. The Theory of International Politics: War and the State. Ann Abor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2007.
  • Wolf, Barry. "When the Weak Attack the Strong: Failures of Deterrence." Note N-3261-A. Santa Monica: RAND, 1991.
  • Wolford, Scott. “Showing Restraint, Signaling Resolve: Coalitions, Cooperation, and Crisis Bargaining.” American Journal of Political Science 58, no. 1 (2014): 144-56.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.
  • Zorn, Christopher J. W. “Generalized Estimating Equation Models for Correlated Data: A review with applications.” American Journal of Political Science 45, no. 2 (2001): 470-90.

The Paradox of Power Asymmetry: When and Why Do Weaker States Challenge US Hegemony?

Year 2016, , 5 - 28, 20.06.2016
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.257674

Abstract

Little is known about how, among weaker states, incentives to challenge
the status quo are related to the expected response of the US as the system’s
hegemon. In contrast to conventional wisdom that suggests militarized
punishment can deter potential challengers, it is argued that weak but strongly
motivated challengers can interpret the hegemon’s military intervention against
adversaries as a window of opportunity to launch their own actions. Empirical
results using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and binary time-series cross-section (BTSCS) models reveal that weaker states possess incentives to
challenge the international status quo when the hegemon is preoccupied with
prior foreign policy commitments, most notably war. In other words, weaker
states dissatisfied with the status quo are more likely to challenge the hegemon
when it is preoccupied with prior military commitments. They do so because
war involvement distracts the hegemon, drains its capabilities and resolve, and
opens up a window of opportunity for weaker states to issue challenges. In
addition, weaker states that have an alliance portfolio dissimilar to that of the
hegemon are more likely than others to initiate Militarized Interstate Disputes.
Theoretically, this paper provides microfoundations to answer the question of
why weaker parties instigate asymmetric conflicts when it might seem irrational
to do so.

References

  • Alshabarati, Carole, and Jacek Kugler. “War Initiation in a Changing World.” International Interactions 34 (2008): 358-81.
  • Arreguín-Toft, Ivan. How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2005.
  • ———. “Unconventional Deterrence: How the Weak Deter the Strong.” In Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, edited by T. V. Paul, Patrick Morgan and James J. Wirtz, 204-21. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009.
  • Balcı, Ali. “Knowledge, Repetition and Power in Ibn al-‘Arabi’s Thought: Some Preliminary Comments on Methodology.” All Azimuth 4, no.1 (2014): 39-50.
  • Bennett, D. Scott, and Allan C. Stam III. “EUGene Documentation.” University Park, PA; Penn State University, 2007.
  • Brambor, Thomas, William Roberts Clark, and Matt Golder. “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses.” Political Analysis 14 (2006): 63-82.
  • Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1981.
  • Clark, David. H., and Patrick M. Regan. “Opportunities to Fight: A statistical technique for modeling unobservable phenomena.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47, no. 1 (2003): 94--115.
  • Clark, William, Michael Gilligan, and Matt Golder. “A Simple Multivariate Test for Asymmetric Hypotheses.” Political Analysis 14 (2006): 311-31.
  • Dror, Yehezkel. Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Issue. Lexington, MA: Heath, 1971.
  • Drukker, David M. “Testing for Serial Correlation in Linear Panel-Data Models.” The Stata Journal 3, no. 2 (2003): 168-77.
  • Fearon, James. “Signaling Versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (June1994): 236-69.
  • ———. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379-414.
  • Fordham, Benjamin O. “Strategic Conflict Avoidance and the Diversionary Use of Force.” The Journal of Politics 67 (2005): 132-53.
  • Ghosn, Faten, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. “The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2004):133-54.
  • Haldi, Stacy Bergstom. Why Wars Widen: A Theory of Predation and Balancing. Portland, OR: Frank Cass: London, 2003.
  • Hassner, Ron E. “To Halve and Hold”: Conflicts Over Sacred Space and the Problem of Indivisibility.” Security Studies 12, no. 4 (2003): 1-33.
  • Hensel, Paul R. Coding Manual for Territorial Claims Data, ICOW Project. Denton, TX: University of North Texas, 2013.
  • James, Patrick. Crisis and War. Montreal and Kingston: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 1988.
  • Karacasulu, Nilüfer. “Interpreting Turkey’s Middle East Policy in the Last Decade.” All Azimuth 4, no. 1 (2015): 27-38.
  • Karaomanoğlu, Ali, and Ersel Aydınlı. Introduction to All Azimuth 1, no. 1 (2012): 5-7.
  • Kim, Hong-Cheol. “How to Deter North Korea’s Military Provocations.” The Korean Journal of International Studies 10 (2012): 63-93.
  • Kim, Woosang. “Alliance Transition and Great Power War.” American Journal of Political Science 35 (1991): 833-50.
  • Kindleberger, Charles P. The World in Depression 1929-1939. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1973.
  • Kissinger, Henry A. “The Vietnam Negotiations.” Foreign Affairs 46 (Jan.1969): 211-34.
  • Köstem, Seҫkin. “International Relations Theories and Turkish International Relations: Observations Based on a Book.” All Azimuth 4, no. 1 (2015): 59-66.
  • Lemke, Douglas, and Suzanne Werner. “Power Parity, Commitments to Change, and War.” International Studies Quarterly 40, no. 2 (1996): 235-60.
  • Lemke, Douglas, and William Reed. “The Relevance of Politically Relevant Dyads.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (2001): 126-44.
  • Mack, Andrew. “Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict.” World Politics 27, no. 2 (1975): 175-200.
  • Monteiro, Nuno P. “Unrest Assured: Why Unipolarity is Not Peaceful.” International Security 36, no. 3 (2011): 9-40.
  • Morrow, James D. “Capabilities, Uncertainty and Resolve.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (1989): 941-72.
  • ———. “The Strategic Setting of Choices: Signaling, Commitment, and Negotiation in International Politics.” In Strategic Choice and International Relations, edited by David A. Lake and Robert Powell, 77-114. Princeton University Press, 1999.
  • Most, Benjamin A. and Harvey Starr. Inquiry, Logic, and International Politics. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press, 1989.
  • Organski, A.F.K. World Politics. New York: Knopf, 1968.
  • ———, and Jacek Kugler. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press 1980.
  • Ӧzdemir, Haluk. “An Inter-Subsystemic Approach in International Relations.” All Azimuth 4, no. 1 (2014): 5-26.
  • Pape, Robert. Bombing to Win. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1996.
  • Paul, T. V. Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
  • Powell, Robert. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60 (Winter 2006): 169-203.
  • Reed, William. “Information, Power, and War.” American Political Science Review 97, no. 4 (2003): 633-41.
  • Rosen, Steven. “War Power and the Willingness to Suffer.” In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Bruce M. Russett, 167-83. London: Sage, 1972.
  • Signorino, Curtis, and Jeffrey M. Ritter. “Tau-b or Not Tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions.” International Studies Quarterly 43, no. 1 (1999): 115-44.
  • Slantchev, Brainslav L. “The Power to Hurt: Costly Conflict with Completely Informed States.” American Political Science Review 97, no. 1 (2003): 123-33.
  • ——— . “The Principles of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations.” American Political Science Review 97, no. 4 (2003): 621-32.
  • Sobek, David, and Jeremy Wells. “Dangerous Liaisons: Dyadic Power Transitions and the Risk of Militarized Disputes and Wars.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 46, no. 1 (2013): 69-92.
  • Souva, Mark. “Institutional Similarity and Interstate Conflict.” International Interactions 30 no. 3 (2004): 263-80.
  • Sullivan, Patricia L. “War Aims and War Outcomes: Why Powerful States Lose Limited Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 3 (2007): 496-524.
  • Sune, Engin. “Non-Western International Relations Theory and Ibn Khaldun.” All Azimuth 5, no. 1 (2016): 79-88.
  • Tammen, Ronald L., Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Carol Alsharabati, Brian Efird, and A. F. K. Organski. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York, NY: Chatham House, 2000.
  • Toft, Monica Duffy. The Geography of Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003.
  • Von Clausewitz, Carl. On War. Edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984.
  • Wagner, Harrison R. The Theory of International Politics: War and the State. Ann Abor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2007.
  • Wolf, Barry. "When the Weak Attack the Strong: Failures of Deterrence." Note N-3261-A. Santa Monica: RAND, 1991.
  • Wolford, Scott. “Showing Restraint, Signaling Resolve: Coalitions, Cooperation, and Crisis Bargaining.” American Journal of Political Science 58, no. 1 (2014): 144-56.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.
  • Zorn, Christopher J. W. “Generalized Estimating Equation Models for Correlated Data: A review with applications.” American Journal of Political Science 45, no. 2 (2001): 470-90.
There are 56 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hong-cheol Kim This is me

Patrick James This is me

Publication Date June 20, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016

Cite

Chicago Kim, Hong-cheol, and Patrick James. “The Paradox of Power Asymmetry: When and Why Do Weaker States Challenge US Hegemony?”. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 5, no. 2 (July 2016): 5-28. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.257674.

Cited By

Widening the World of IR