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Etkili Yardım Politikası ve Devletlerarası Çatışma

Year 2017, , 83 - 102, 01.01.2017
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.285098

Abstract

Dış yardım ve askeri çatışma arasındaki bağlantı, hem yardımların etkinliği hem de
devletlerarası çatışma araştırmalarında pek az ilgi görmüştür. Bu çalışma, yardım alan devletler
arasındaki devletlerarası çatışmalara dış yardımın etkisinin bir analizini sunmaktadır. Bunu
yaparken, devletin kara kutusunu açarak yardım etkinliği literatüründeki önceki araştırmaları
ve çatışma literatüründeki uyarma sürecini esas almaktadır. Önceki araştırmalar, yardımların
vatandaşların refah düzeyini yükseltmeye yönelik etkinliğinin demokratik kurumların
varlığına bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu makale, bu koşullu ilişkinin kriz görüşmeleri üzerinde negatif bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Dış yardımlar, demokratik rejimlerde bir
yandan vatandaşların refah düzeyini arttırırken bir yandan da hükümetlerin yeniden seçilme
şanslarını artırmaktadır. Öte yandan, dış yardımlar, seçmenin geri çekilme durumunda
hükümete vereceği cezaları azaltmakta ve hükümetin rakiplerine bu cezalardan kaçınma
eğiliminin fazlalığına dayanarak göndereceği mesajların gücünü azaltmaktadır. 1961’den
2001’e kadarki tüm ikililerin incelenmesi, bu görüşü desteklemektedir. Yardım girdileri
arttıkça, demokratik hükümetlerin tehditlerine karşı gösterilen direnç eğilimi, otokrat
hükümetler tarafından yapılan tehditlerden istatistiksel olarak ayırt edilemez hale gelmektedir.
Dahası, aldıkları dış yardımları dikkate alırsak, demokratik devletlerin, demokratik olmayan
devletlerarası ilişkilere kıyasla birbirlerine karşı daha fazla barış eğilimi içinde olmadıkları
görülmektedir.

References

  • Arndt, Channing, Sam Jones, and Finn Tarp. “Aid And Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?” Discussion Paper 2009/005, UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, 2009.
  • Azpuru De Cuestas, Dinorah, Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez Liñan, and Mitchell A. Seligson. “What Has the United States Been Doing?” Journal of Democracy 19, no. 2 (2008): 150-59.
  • Bennett, Scott D., and Allan C. Stam III. “EUGene: A Conceptual Manual.” International Interactions 26, no. 2 (2000): 179-204.
  • Bjella, Marie. “Democracy and Foreign Aid.” MA Diss., University of Oslo, 2012.
  • Boone, Peter. “Politics and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid.” European Economic Review 40, no. 2 (1996): 289-329.
  • Borsuk, Imren. “From War to Peace: Northern Ireland Conflict and the Peace Process.” Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 13, no. 50 (2016): 41-57.
  • Borsuk, Imren. “Violence and Security Concerns in Post-Conflict Northern Ireland.” All Azimuth 5, no. 2 (2016) 47-62. Brecher, Michael, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1997.
  • Bremer, Stuart A. “Dangerous Dyads.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, no. 2 (1992): 309-41.
  • Broz, J. Lawrence. “Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes.” International Organization 56, no. 4 (2002): 861-87.
  • Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, and Alastair Smith. “A Political Economy of Aid.” International Organization 63, no. 2 (2009): 309-40.
  • Bueno de Mesquita. “Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 2 (2007): 251-84.
  • Bueno de Mesquita. “Leader Survival, Revolutions, and the Nature of Government Finance.” American Journal of Political Science 54, no. 4 (2010): 936-50.
  • Burnside, Craig, and David Dollar. “Aid, Policies, and Growth.” Working Paper No. 569252, World Bank Policy Research, Washington, DC, 1997.
  • Busch, Marc L. “Democracy, Consultation, and the Paneling of Disputes under GATT.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 44, no. 4 (2000): 425-46.
  • Dixon, William J. “Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 88, no. 1 (1994): 14-32.
  • Dorussen, Han, and Jongryn Mo. “Ending Economic Sanctions Audience Costs and Rent-Seeking as Commitment Strategies.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, no. 4 (2001): 395-426.
  • Fearon, James D. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (1994): 577-92.
  • Fearon, James D.. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379-414.
  • Feyzioglu, Tarhan, Vinaya Swaroop, and Min Zhu. “A Panel Data Analysis of the Fungibility of Foreign Aid.” The World Bank Economic Review 12, no. 1 (1998): 29-58.
  • Hewitt, J. Joseph. “Dyadic Processes and International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47, no. 5 (2003): 669-92.
  • Hurlburt, Heather F. “Gaining Leverage for International Organizations: Incentives and Baltic-Russian Relations, 1992-1994.” In The Price of Peace: Incentives and International Conflict Prevention, edited by David Cortright, 226-42. Lanham, Md. : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1997.
  • Finkel, Steven E., Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, and Mitchell A. Seligson. “The Effects of US Foreign Assistance on The Politics of Democracy Building, 1990-2003.” World Politics 59, no. 03 (2007): 404-39
  • Hanmer, Michael J, and Kerem Ozan Kalkan. “Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models.” American Journal of Political Science 57, no. 1 (2013): 263-77.
  • Isham, Jonathan, Daniel Kaufmann, and Lant H. Pritchett. “Civil Liberties, Democracy, and the Performance of Government Projects.” The World Bank Economic Review 11, no. 2 (May 1, 1997): 219-42.
  • Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules and Empirical Patterns.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 15, no. 2 (1996): 163-213.
  • Kam, Cindy, and Robert J. Franzese. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2007.
  • King, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg. “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation.” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2 (2000): 341-55.
  • Kono, Daniel Yuichi, and Gabriella R. Montinola. “Does Foreign Aid Support Autocrats, Democrats, or Both?” Journal of Politics 71, no. 2 (2009): 704-18.
  • Kosack, Stephen. “Effective Aid: How Democracy Allows Development Aid to Improve the Quality of Life.” World Development 31, no. 1 (2003): 1-22.
  • Lasensky, Scott. “Chequebook Diplomacy: The US, the Oslo Process and the Role of Foreign Aid’.” In Aid, Diplomacy and Facts on the Ground: The Case of Palestine, edited by Michael Keating, Anne Le More, and Robert Lowe, 41-58. London: Chatham House, 2005.
  • Licht, Amanda A. “Coming into Money: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Leader Survival.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 1 (2010): 58-87.
  • Marshall, Monty G., Keith Jaggers, and Ted Robert Gurr. Polity IV Project. Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland College Park, 2002.
  • Morgenthau, Hans. “A Political Theory of Foreign Aid.” The American Political Science Review 56, no. 2 (1962): 301-9.
  • Mousseau, Michael, Håvard Hegre,and John R. Oneal.“How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace.”European Journal of International Relations 9, no. 2 (2003): 277-314.
  • Nielsen, Richard A., Michael G. Findley, Zachary S. Davis, Tara Candland, and Daniel L. Nielson. “Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 219-32.
  • Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas, Axel Dreher, Dierk Herzer, Stephan Klasen, and Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso. “Does Foreign Aid Really Raise per Capita Income? A Time Series Perspective.” Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D’économique 45, no. 1 (2012): 288-313.
  • Rajan, Raghuram G., and Arvind Subramanian. “Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?” The Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 4 (2008): 643-65.
  • Rajan, Raghuram G.. “What Undermines Aid’s Impact on Growth?” Working Paper WP/05/126, IMF, Washington, DC, 2005.
  • Roodman, David. “The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics.” The World Bank Economic Review 21, no. 2 (2007): 255-77.
  • Savun, Burcu, and Daniel C. Tirone. “Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 233-46.
  • Schelling, Thomas C. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960.
  • Schultz, Kenneth A. “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War.” International Organization 53, no. 2 (1999): 233-66.
  • Slantchev, Branislav L. “Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs.” International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 2 (2006): 445-77.
  • Smith, Alastair. “International Crises and Domestic Politics.” American Political Science Review 92, no. 3 (1998): 623-38.
  • Svensson, J. “Aid, Growth and Democracy.” Economics & Politics 11, no. 3 (1999): 275-97.

The Politics of Effective Aid and Interstate Conflict

Year 2017, , 83 - 102, 01.01.2017
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.285098

Abstract

The link
between foreign aid and military conflict has received little attention in both
aid effectiveness and interstate conflict research. This study provides a
first-cut analysis of the impact of foreign aid on interstate conflict among
recipient countries. In doing so, it opens the black box of state and builds on
the previous research in the aid effectiveness literature and on the signaling
processes in the conflict literature. Previous research indicates that the
effectiveness of aid in improving citizen welfare is conditional on the
presence of democratic institutions. This study shows that this conditional
relationship has a detrimental effect on crisis bargaining outcomes. Foreign
aid, on the one hand, increases citizen welfare in democratic regimes; hence,
also governments’ ex-ante re-election prospects. On the other hand, foreign aid
retards government ability to generate audience costs and to send informative
signals to their opponents. Analyzing all dyads from 1961 to 2001 yields robust
support for this view. As aid inflows increase, targets’ resistance propensity
against threats issued by democratic governments becomes statistically
indistinguishable from threats issued by autocratic governments. Moreover,
democratic states are not significantly more peaceful to each other than
non-democratic pairs once we take into account the amount of foreign aid they
receive.

References

  • Arndt, Channing, Sam Jones, and Finn Tarp. “Aid And Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?” Discussion Paper 2009/005, UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, 2009.
  • Azpuru De Cuestas, Dinorah, Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez Liñan, and Mitchell A. Seligson. “What Has the United States Been Doing?” Journal of Democracy 19, no. 2 (2008): 150-59.
  • Bennett, Scott D., and Allan C. Stam III. “EUGene: A Conceptual Manual.” International Interactions 26, no. 2 (2000): 179-204.
  • Bjella, Marie. “Democracy and Foreign Aid.” MA Diss., University of Oslo, 2012.
  • Boone, Peter. “Politics and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid.” European Economic Review 40, no. 2 (1996): 289-329.
  • Borsuk, Imren. “From War to Peace: Northern Ireland Conflict and the Peace Process.” Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 13, no. 50 (2016): 41-57.
  • Borsuk, Imren. “Violence and Security Concerns in Post-Conflict Northern Ireland.” All Azimuth 5, no. 2 (2016) 47-62. Brecher, Michael, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1997.
  • Bremer, Stuart A. “Dangerous Dyads.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, no. 2 (1992): 309-41.
  • Broz, J. Lawrence. “Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes.” International Organization 56, no. 4 (2002): 861-87.
  • Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, and Alastair Smith. “A Political Economy of Aid.” International Organization 63, no. 2 (2009): 309-40.
  • Bueno de Mesquita. “Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 2 (2007): 251-84.
  • Bueno de Mesquita. “Leader Survival, Revolutions, and the Nature of Government Finance.” American Journal of Political Science 54, no. 4 (2010): 936-50.
  • Burnside, Craig, and David Dollar. “Aid, Policies, and Growth.” Working Paper No. 569252, World Bank Policy Research, Washington, DC, 1997.
  • Busch, Marc L. “Democracy, Consultation, and the Paneling of Disputes under GATT.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 44, no. 4 (2000): 425-46.
  • Dixon, William J. “Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 88, no. 1 (1994): 14-32.
  • Dorussen, Han, and Jongryn Mo. “Ending Economic Sanctions Audience Costs and Rent-Seeking as Commitment Strategies.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, no. 4 (2001): 395-426.
  • Fearon, James D. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (1994): 577-92.
  • Fearon, James D.. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379-414.
  • Feyzioglu, Tarhan, Vinaya Swaroop, and Min Zhu. “A Panel Data Analysis of the Fungibility of Foreign Aid.” The World Bank Economic Review 12, no. 1 (1998): 29-58.
  • Hewitt, J. Joseph. “Dyadic Processes and International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47, no. 5 (2003): 669-92.
  • Hurlburt, Heather F. “Gaining Leverage for International Organizations: Incentives and Baltic-Russian Relations, 1992-1994.” In The Price of Peace: Incentives and International Conflict Prevention, edited by David Cortright, 226-42. Lanham, Md. : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1997.
  • Finkel, Steven E., Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, and Mitchell A. Seligson. “The Effects of US Foreign Assistance on The Politics of Democracy Building, 1990-2003.” World Politics 59, no. 03 (2007): 404-39
  • Hanmer, Michael J, and Kerem Ozan Kalkan. “Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models.” American Journal of Political Science 57, no. 1 (2013): 263-77.
  • Isham, Jonathan, Daniel Kaufmann, and Lant H. Pritchett. “Civil Liberties, Democracy, and the Performance of Government Projects.” The World Bank Economic Review 11, no. 2 (May 1, 1997): 219-42.
  • Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules and Empirical Patterns.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 15, no. 2 (1996): 163-213.
  • Kam, Cindy, and Robert J. Franzese. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2007.
  • King, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg. “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation.” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2 (2000): 341-55.
  • Kono, Daniel Yuichi, and Gabriella R. Montinola. “Does Foreign Aid Support Autocrats, Democrats, or Both?” Journal of Politics 71, no. 2 (2009): 704-18.
  • Kosack, Stephen. “Effective Aid: How Democracy Allows Development Aid to Improve the Quality of Life.” World Development 31, no. 1 (2003): 1-22.
  • Lasensky, Scott. “Chequebook Diplomacy: The US, the Oslo Process and the Role of Foreign Aid’.” In Aid, Diplomacy and Facts on the Ground: The Case of Palestine, edited by Michael Keating, Anne Le More, and Robert Lowe, 41-58. London: Chatham House, 2005.
  • Licht, Amanda A. “Coming into Money: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Leader Survival.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 1 (2010): 58-87.
  • Marshall, Monty G., Keith Jaggers, and Ted Robert Gurr. Polity IV Project. Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland College Park, 2002.
  • Morgenthau, Hans. “A Political Theory of Foreign Aid.” The American Political Science Review 56, no. 2 (1962): 301-9.
  • Mousseau, Michael, Håvard Hegre,and John R. Oneal.“How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace.”European Journal of International Relations 9, no. 2 (2003): 277-314.
  • Nielsen, Richard A., Michael G. Findley, Zachary S. Davis, Tara Candland, and Daniel L. Nielson. “Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 219-32.
  • Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas, Axel Dreher, Dierk Herzer, Stephan Klasen, and Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso. “Does Foreign Aid Really Raise per Capita Income? A Time Series Perspective.” Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D’économique 45, no. 1 (2012): 288-313.
  • Rajan, Raghuram G., and Arvind Subramanian. “Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?” The Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 4 (2008): 643-65.
  • Rajan, Raghuram G.. “What Undermines Aid’s Impact on Growth?” Working Paper WP/05/126, IMF, Washington, DC, 2005.
  • Roodman, David. “The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics.” The World Bank Economic Review 21, no. 2 (2007): 255-77.
  • Savun, Burcu, and Daniel C. Tirone. “Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 233-46.
  • Schelling, Thomas C. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960.
  • Schultz, Kenneth A. “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War.” International Organization 53, no. 2 (1999): 233-66.
  • Slantchev, Branislav L. “Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs.” International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 2 (2006): 445-77.
  • Smith, Alastair. “International Crises and Domestic Politics.” American Political Science Review 92, no. 3 (1998): 623-38.
  • Svensson, J. “Aid, Growth and Democracy.” Economics & Politics 11, no. 3 (1999): 275-97.
There are 45 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Omer F. Orsun This is me

Publication Date January 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017

Cite

Chicago Orsun, Omer F. “The Politics of Effective Aid and Interstate Conflict”. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 6, no. 1 (January 2017): 83-102. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.285098.

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