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System Dynamics Modeling in International Relations

Year 2019, , 231 - 253, 01.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476884

Abstract

This article provides an introduction to system dynamics modeling
with a particular focus on the use of system dynamics models in political
science and international relations. A system dynamics approach offers an
alternative to traditional qualitative and quantitative methods by providing a
dynamic and endogenous point of view, which allows for understanding the
dynamic interactions between variables and making short- and long-term
projections for alternative policy choices. This approach is particularly
useful to tackle the complex problems of contemporary politics, in which the
solutions require combining the insights from different disciplines. Applications
of a system dynamics approach in the social sciences cover a broad spectrum, from war initiation and
termination to social inequality, from demographics to human development and
democratization. This article starts by presenting the brief history of system
dynamics models and their use in social sciences, and comparing a system
dynamics approach to traditional qualitative and quantitative research methods
by discussing the advantages and disadvantages of each one. This discussion is followed by the explanation of the essential components of system dynamics models.
Finally, the article provides several applications from international relations
via developing models of arms races and spread of intrastate conflicts. 

References

  • Abdollahian, Mark A., et al. “A Formal Model of Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations.” Military Operations Research 14, no. 3 (2009): 5–30. ———. “Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective.” International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 4 (2012): 827–42. Akgul, Oner. “A Bibliographical Study on the Academic Research of Peace and Conflict in Turkey.” Paper presented at the 7th Eurasian Peace Science Meeting, İstanbul, 2018. Aydin, Mustafa, Fulya Hisaroglu and Korhan Yazgan. “Türkiye'de Uluslararası İlişkiler Akademisyenleri ve Alana Yönelik Yaklaşımları Üzerine Bir İnceleme: TRIP 2014 Sonuçları.” Uluslararasi Iliskiler 12, no. 48 (2016): 3–35. Banks, Catherine M., and John A. Sokolowski. “From War on Drugs to War against Terrorism: Modeling the Evolution of Colombia’s Counter-Insurgency.” Social Science Research 38, no. 1 (2009): 146–54. Bernanke, Ben S., and Frederic S. Mishkin. “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 11, no. 2 (1997): 97–116. Blank, Larry, et al. “A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq.” Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 14, no. 2 (2008): 1–26. Brown, Courtney. Ballots of Tumult: A Portrait of Volatility in American Voting. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1991. ———. Differential Equations: A Modeling Approach. Thousand Oaks: Sage, 2007. ———. Serpents in the Sand: Essays on the Nonlinear Nature of Politics and Human Destiny. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1995. Chamberlain, Todd. “Systems Dynamics Model of Al-Qa'ida and United States ‘Competition’.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 4, no. 3 (2007): 1–23. Chen, Yu-Che, and Michael J. Ahn. Routledge Handbook on Information Technology in Government. New York: Routledge, 2017. Coleman, James S. Introduction to Mathematical Sociology. New York: Free Press, 1964. Demir, Cenker Korhan, and Engin Avci. “Turkish Terrorism Studies: A Preliminary Assessment.” All Azimuth 7, no. 1 (2018): 21–44. Faria, Joao Ricardo, and Daniel G.M. Arce. “Terror Support and Recruitment.” Defence and Peace Economics 16, no. 4 (2005): 263–73. Fisunoglu, Ali. “Beyond the Phoenix Factor: Consequences of Major Wars and Determinants of Postwar Recovery.” PhD Diss., Claremont Graduate University, 2014. Forrester, Jay W. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge: The M.I.T. Press, 1961. ———. “Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers.” Harvard Business Review 36, no. 4 (1958): 37–66. ———. “Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment.” Industrial Management Review 9, no. 2 (1968): 83–105. ———. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge: The M.I.T. Press, 1969. Ghaffarzadegan, Navid, John Lyneis, and George P. Richardson. “How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Public Policy Process.” System Dynamics Review 27, no. 1 (2011): 22–44. Gilbert, Niger, and Klaus G. Troitzsch. Simulation for the Social Scientist (Second Edition). Berkshire, England: Open University Press, 2005. Gillespie, John V., and Dina A. Zinnes. Mathematical Systems in International Relations Research. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1977. Goertz, Gary, and James Mahoney. A Tale of Two Cultures: Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012. Hjorth, Peder, and Ali Bagheri. “Navigating Towards Sustainable Development: A System Dynamics Approach.” Futures 38, no. 1 (2006): 74–92. Hoover, Dean and David Kowalewski. "Dynamic Models of Dissent and Repression." The Journal of Conflict Resolution 36.1 (1992): 150–182. Howick, Susan, Fran Ackermann, and David Andersen. “Linking Event Thinking with Structural Thinking: Methods to Improve Client Value in Projects.” System Dynamics Review 22, no. 2 (2006): 113–40. Intriligator, Michael D., and Dagobert L. Brito. “Arms Races.” Defence and Peace Economics 11, no. 1 (2000): 45–54. Jervis, Robert. System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997. Kadera, Kelly M. “Transmission, Barriers, and Constraints: A Dynamic Model of the Spread of War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, no. 3 (1998): 367–87. Kadera, Kelly M., and Daniel S. Morey. “The Trade-Offs of Fighting and Investing: A Model of the Evolution of War and Peace.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 25, no. 2 (2008): 152–70. Kadera, Kelly M., and Sank-Ki Kim. “Breaking Natural Selection: A Dynamic Model of Civil War and Third-Party Intervention.” EPSA 2013 Annual Conference Paper 862 (2013). Kirkwood, Craig W. System Dynamics Methods: A Quick Introduction. College of Business, Arizona State University, 1998. Malleret, Thierry. Disequilibrium: A World Out of Kilter. Amazon Kindle Edition, 2012. Morey, David S. “When War Brings Peace: A Dynamic Model of the Rivalry Process.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 263-75. Organski, A.F.K. World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1968. Organski, A.F.K., et al. Births, Deaths, and Taxes: The Demographic and Political Transitions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1984. Przeworski, Adam, and John Sprague. Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1986. Richardson, George P. Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1991. Richardson, George P., and David F. Andersen. “Systems Thinking, Mapping, and Modeling in Group Decision and Negotiation.” Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation, edited by Marc D. Kilgour and Colin Eden, 313–24. Dordrecht: Springer, 2010. Richardson, Lewis F. Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War. Pittsburgh: Boxwood, 1960. Schelling, Thomas C. “Social Mechanisms and Social Dynamics.” In Social Mechanisms: An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, edited by Peter Hedstrom anf Richard Swedberg, 32–44. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Shively, W. Phillips. The Craft of Political Research (10th Edition). New York: Routledge, 2017. Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: Wiley, 1957. Spaiser, Viktoria, et al. “The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values.” PLoS ONE 9, no. 6 (2014): e97856. Urdal, Henrik. “A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence.” International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 3 (2006): 607–29. Urlanis, Boris. Wars and Population. Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1971. Zinnes, Dina A., and Robert G. Muncaster. “The Dynamics of Hostile Activity and the Prediction of War.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 28, no. 2 (1984): 187–229.
Year 2019, , 231 - 253, 01.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476884

Abstract

References

  • Abdollahian, Mark A., et al. “A Formal Model of Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations.” Military Operations Research 14, no. 3 (2009): 5–30. ———. “Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective.” International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 4 (2012): 827–42. Akgul, Oner. “A Bibliographical Study on the Academic Research of Peace and Conflict in Turkey.” Paper presented at the 7th Eurasian Peace Science Meeting, İstanbul, 2018. Aydin, Mustafa, Fulya Hisaroglu and Korhan Yazgan. “Türkiye'de Uluslararası İlişkiler Akademisyenleri ve Alana Yönelik Yaklaşımları Üzerine Bir İnceleme: TRIP 2014 Sonuçları.” Uluslararasi Iliskiler 12, no. 48 (2016): 3–35. Banks, Catherine M., and John A. Sokolowski. “From War on Drugs to War against Terrorism: Modeling the Evolution of Colombia’s Counter-Insurgency.” Social Science Research 38, no. 1 (2009): 146–54. Bernanke, Ben S., and Frederic S. Mishkin. “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 11, no. 2 (1997): 97–116. Blank, Larry, et al. “A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq.” Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 14, no. 2 (2008): 1–26. Brown, Courtney. Ballots of Tumult: A Portrait of Volatility in American Voting. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1991. ———. Differential Equations: A Modeling Approach. Thousand Oaks: Sage, 2007. ———. Serpents in the Sand: Essays on the Nonlinear Nature of Politics and Human Destiny. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1995. Chamberlain, Todd. “Systems Dynamics Model of Al-Qa'ida and United States ‘Competition’.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 4, no. 3 (2007): 1–23. Chen, Yu-Che, and Michael J. Ahn. Routledge Handbook on Information Technology in Government. New York: Routledge, 2017. Coleman, James S. Introduction to Mathematical Sociology. New York: Free Press, 1964. Demir, Cenker Korhan, and Engin Avci. “Turkish Terrorism Studies: A Preliminary Assessment.” All Azimuth 7, no. 1 (2018): 21–44. Faria, Joao Ricardo, and Daniel G.M. Arce. “Terror Support and Recruitment.” Defence and Peace Economics 16, no. 4 (2005): 263–73. Fisunoglu, Ali. “Beyond the Phoenix Factor: Consequences of Major Wars and Determinants of Postwar Recovery.” PhD Diss., Claremont Graduate University, 2014. Forrester, Jay W. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge: The M.I.T. Press, 1961. ———. “Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers.” Harvard Business Review 36, no. 4 (1958): 37–66. ———. “Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment.” Industrial Management Review 9, no. 2 (1968): 83–105. ———. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge: The M.I.T. Press, 1969. Ghaffarzadegan, Navid, John Lyneis, and George P. Richardson. “How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Public Policy Process.” System Dynamics Review 27, no. 1 (2011): 22–44. Gilbert, Niger, and Klaus G. Troitzsch. Simulation for the Social Scientist (Second Edition). Berkshire, England: Open University Press, 2005. Gillespie, John V., and Dina A. Zinnes. Mathematical Systems in International Relations Research. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1977. Goertz, Gary, and James Mahoney. A Tale of Two Cultures: Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012. Hjorth, Peder, and Ali Bagheri. “Navigating Towards Sustainable Development: A System Dynamics Approach.” Futures 38, no. 1 (2006): 74–92. Hoover, Dean and David Kowalewski. "Dynamic Models of Dissent and Repression." The Journal of Conflict Resolution 36.1 (1992): 150–182. Howick, Susan, Fran Ackermann, and David Andersen. “Linking Event Thinking with Structural Thinking: Methods to Improve Client Value in Projects.” System Dynamics Review 22, no. 2 (2006): 113–40. Intriligator, Michael D., and Dagobert L. Brito. “Arms Races.” Defence and Peace Economics 11, no. 1 (2000): 45–54. Jervis, Robert. System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997. Kadera, Kelly M. “Transmission, Barriers, and Constraints: A Dynamic Model of the Spread of War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, no. 3 (1998): 367–87. Kadera, Kelly M., and Daniel S. Morey. “The Trade-Offs of Fighting and Investing: A Model of the Evolution of War and Peace.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 25, no. 2 (2008): 152–70. Kadera, Kelly M., and Sank-Ki Kim. “Breaking Natural Selection: A Dynamic Model of Civil War and Third-Party Intervention.” EPSA 2013 Annual Conference Paper 862 (2013). Kirkwood, Craig W. System Dynamics Methods: A Quick Introduction. College of Business, Arizona State University, 1998. Malleret, Thierry. Disequilibrium: A World Out of Kilter. Amazon Kindle Edition, 2012. Morey, David S. “When War Brings Peace: A Dynamic Model of the Rivalry Process.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (2011): 263-75. Organski, A.F.K. World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1968. Organski, A.F.K., et al. Births, Deaths, and Taxes: The Demographic and Political Transitions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1984. Przeworski, Adam, and John Sprague. Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1986. Richardson, George P. Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1991. Richardson, George P., and David F. Andersen. “Systems Thinking, Mapping, and Modeling in Group Decision and Negotiation.” Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation, edited by Marc D. Kilgour and Colin Eden, 313–24. Dordrecht: Springer, 2010. Richardson, Lewis F. Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War. Pittsburgh: Boxwood, 1960. Schelling, Thomas C. “Social Mechanisms and Social Dynamics.” In Social Mechanisms: An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, edited by Peter Hedstrom anf Richard Swedberg, 32–44. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Shively, W. Phillips. The Craft of Political Research (10th Edition). New York: Routledge, 2017. Simon, Herbert A. Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: Wiley, 1957. Spaiser, Viktoria, et al. “The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values.” PLoS ONE 9, no. 6 (2014): e97856. Urdal, Henrik. “A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence.” International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 3 (2006): 607–29. Urlanis, Boris. Wars and Population. Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1971. Zinnes, Dina A., and Robert G. Muncaster. “The Dynamics of Hostile Activity and the Prediction of War.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 28, no. 2 (1984): 187–229.
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Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ali Fisunoğlu This is me

Publication Date July 1, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019

Cite

Chicago Fisunoğlu, Ali. “System Dynamics Modeling in International Relations”. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 8, no. 2 (July 2019): 231-53. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476884.

Widening the World of IR