Explaining Miscalculation and Maladaptation in Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East during the Arab Uprisings: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

Year 2017, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 65 - 83, 02.05.2017

Nuri Yesilyurt

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.310151

Cited By: 3

Abstract

This article seeks to test the relevance of neoclassical realism in explaining the

foreign policy behavior of a regional power in an era of turbulent change in the

regional system. Taking Turkey’s policy response to the Arab Uprisings as a case

study, it tries to explain, from a neoclassical realist perspective, the causes of

Ankara’s miscalculations while formulating an ambitious policy in 2011, as well

as its failure to adapt to the new realities on the ground between 2013 and 2016.

Overall, it argues that neoclassical realism provides a satisfying explanation for

Turkey’s policy failure in this period, and that the problems of miscalculation

and maladaptation in Turkish foreign policy were caused by distortive effects

of certain unit-level factors. In this sense, while ideological tendencies of the

ruling Justice and Development Party, as well as its consolidation of domestic

power, shaped the content and styling of Ankara’s policy response after 2011,

the extensive utilization of foreign policy for domestic purposes by the ruling

party hindered Turkey’s adaptation to shifting balances in the regional power

structure between 2013 and 2016.

Keywords

Neoclassical realism, Turkish Foreign Policy, Middle East, Arab Spring

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