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An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 205 - 230, 01.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858

Abstract

This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings
of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to
explore their application to a specific research subject, international
bargaining on Iran’s nuclear program. In this application, the article presents
forecasts about Iran’s nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded
rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three
analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three
forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue.
The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the
analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by
all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian
and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program. 

References

  • Fuchs, Doris Andrea, Jacek Kugler, and Harry Pachon. "Nafta: From Congressional Passage to Implementation Woes." International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 299–314.
  • IAEA. “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).” http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Treaties/npt.html.
  • Isidore, Chris. "Will Iran Dispute Push Oil to $130?" CNN, http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/07/news/international/iran_oil/index.htm.
  • James, Patrick, and Michael Lusztig. “Quebec’s Economic and Political Future with North America.” International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 283–98.
  • James, Patrick, and Özgür Özdamar. The United States and North Korea: Avoiding a Worst-Case Scenario. Edited by Ralph Carter. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2004.
  • Kugler, Jacek, and Yi Feng. “Foreword.” International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 233–34.
  • Kugler, Yacek, Birol Yeşilada, and Brian Effird. “The Political Future of Afghanistan and Its Implications for US Policy.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 20, no. 1 (2003): 43–71.
  • Martin, Lisa. Coercive Cooperation: Explaining Multilateral Economic Sanctions. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1992.
  • Nicholson, Michael. “Formal Methods in International Relations.” In Millennial Reflections on International Studies, edited by Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey, 345–60. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2004.
  • Nuclear Threat Initiative. “Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP).” http://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/184/.
  • “Ongoing U.S. Efforts to Curb Iran's Nuclear Program.” The American Journal of International Law 100, no. 2 (2006): 480–85.
  • Organski, A.F.K., and Ellen Lust-Okar. “The Tug of War over the Status of Jerusalem: Leaders, Strategies and Outcomes.” International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 333–50.
  • Özcan, Nihat Ali. “İran Sorununun Geleceği: Senaryolar, Bölgesel Etkiler Ve Türkiye'ye Öneriler.” TEPAV Orta Doğu Çalışmaları Raporu 1, Ankara, 2006.
  • Özcan, Nihat Ali, and Özgür Özdamar. “Uneasy Neighbors: Turkish-Iranian Relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.” Middle East Policy 17, no.3 (Fall 2010): 101–17.
  • ———. “Iran’s Nuclear Program and Future of US-Iranian Relations.” Middle East Policy 16, no. 1 (2009): 121–33.
  • Özdamar, Özgür. “Contributions of Game Theory to International Relations Literature.” [in Turkish] Uluslararası İlişkiler 4, no. 15 (2007): 33–66.
  • Özdamar, Özgür, and Sercan Canbolat. “Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership: An Operational Code Approach.” Political Research Quarterly (2017). doi: 10.1177/1065912917721744.
  • Ray, J. L. and Bruce Russett. “The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations, and the End of the Cold War.” British Journal of Political Science 26, no. 4 (1996): 441–70.
  • Russett, Bruce M. “The Calculus of Deterrence.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 7, no. 2 (1963): 97–109.
  • Sahimi, Mohammed. “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Part 1: Its History.” Payvand, October 2, 2003. http://www.payvand.com/news/03/oct/1015.html.
  • Schelling, Thomas. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960.
  • Snider, Lewis W., and Jason E. Strakes. “Modeling Middle East Security: A Formal Assesment of Regional Responses to the Iraq War.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 23 (2006): 211–26.
  • Stokman, Frans, and Robert Thomson. “Winners and Losers in the European Union.” European Union Politics 5, no. 1 (2004): 5–23.
  • UN Security Council. Resolution 1737. S/RES/1737 (December 23, 2006). http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/unsc_res1737-2006.pdf.
  • UN Security Council Resolution 1747. S/RES/1747 (March 24, 2007). http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/unsc_res1747-2007.pdf.
  • von Neumann, John, and Oskar Morgenstern. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, 1944.
Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 205 - 230, 01.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858

Abstract

References

  • Fuchs, Doris Andrea, Jacek Kugler, and Harry Pachon. "Nafta: From Congressional Passage to Implementation Woes." International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 299–314.
  • IAEA. “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).” http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Treaties/npt.html.
  • Isidore, Chris. "Will Iran Dispute Push Oil to $130?" CNN, http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/07/news/international/iran_oil/index.htm.
  • James, Patrick, and Michael Lusztig. “Quebec’s Economic and Political Future with North America.” International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 283–98.
  • James, Patrick, and Özgür Özdamar. The United States and North Korea: Avoiding a Worst-Case Scenario. Edited by Ralph Carter. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2004.
  • Kugler, Jacek, and Yi Feng. “Foreword.” International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 233–34.
  • Kugler, Yacek, Birol Yeşilada, and Brian Effird. “The Political Future of Afghanistan and Its Implications for US Policy.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 20, no. 1 (2003): 43–71.
  • Martin, Lisa. Coercive Cooperation: Explaining Multilateral Economic Sanctions. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1992.
  • Nicholson, Michael. “Formal Methods in International Relations.” In Millennial Reflections on International Studies, edited by Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey, 345–60. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2004.
  • Nuclear Threat Initiative. “Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP).” http://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/184/.
  • “Ongoing U.S. Efforts to Curb Iran's Nuclear Program.” The American Journal of International Law 100, no. 2 (2006): 480–85.
  • Organski, A.F.K., and Ellen Lust-Okar. “The Tug of War over the Status of Jerusalem: Leaders, Strategies and Outcomes.” International Interactions 23, no. 3–4 (1997): 333–50.
  • Özcan, Nihat Ali. “İran Sorununun Geleceği: Senaryolar, Bölgesel Etkiler Ve Türkiye'ye Öneriler.” TEPAV Orta Doğu Çalışmaları Raporu 1, Ankara, 2006.
  • Özcan, Nihat Ali, and Özgür Özdamar. “Uneasy Neighbors: Turkish-Iranian Relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.” Middle East Policy 17, no.3 (Fall 2010): 101–17.
  • ———. “Iran’s Nuclear Program and Future of US-Iranian Relations.” Middle East Policy 16, no. 1 (2009): 121–33.
  • Özdamar, Özgür. “Contributions of Game Theory to International Relations Literature.” [in Turkish] Uluslararası İlişkiler 4, no. 15 (2007): 33–66.
  • Özdamar, Özgür, and Sercan Canbolat. “Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership: An Operational Code Approach.” Political Research Quarterly (2017). doi: 10.1177/1065912917721744.
  • Ray, J. L. and Bruce Russett. “The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations, and the End of the Cold War.” British Journal of Political Science 26, no. 4 (1996): 441–70.
  • Russett, Bruce M. “The Calculus of Deterrence.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 7, no. 2 (1963): 97–109.
  • Sahimi, Mohammed. “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Part 1: Its History.” Payvand, October 2, 2003. http://www.payvand.com/news/03/oct/1015.html.
  • Schelling, Thomas. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960.
  • Snider, Lewis W., and Jason E. Strakes. “Modeling Middle East Security: A Formal Assesment of Regional Responses to the Iraq War.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 23 (2006): 211–26.
  • Stokman, Frans, and Robert Thomson. “Winners and Losers in the European Union.” European Union Politics 5, no. 1 (2004): 5–23.
  • UN Security Council. Resolution 1737. S/RES/1737 (December 23, 2006). http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/unsc_res1737-2006.pdf.
  • UN Security Council Resolution 1747. S/RES/1747 (March 24, 2007). http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/unsc_res1747-2007.pdf.
  • von Neumann, John, and Oskar Morgenstern. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, 1944.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Özgür Özdamar

Publication Date July 1, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 8 Issue: 2

Cite

Chicago Özdamar, Özgür. “An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program”. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 8, no. 2 (July 2019): 205-30. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858.

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