System Dynamics Modeling in International Relations

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 231 - 253, 01.07.2019

Ali Fisunoğlu

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476884

Cited By: 1

Abstract

This article provides an introduction to system dynamics modeling
with a particular focus on the use of system dynamics models in political
science and international relations. A system dynamics approach offers an
alternative to traditional qualitative and quantitative methods by providing a
dynamic and endogenous point of view, which allows for understanding the
dynamic interactions between variables and making short- and long-term
projections for alternative policy choices. This approach is particularly
useful to tackle the complex problems of contemporary politics, in which the
solutions require combining the insights from different disciplines. Applications
of a system dynamics approach in the social sciences cover a broad spectrum, from war initiation and
termination to social inequality, from demographics to human development and
democratization. This article starts by presenting the brief history of system
dynamics models and their use in social sciences, and comparing a system
dynamics approach to traditional qualitative and quantitative research methods
by discussing the advantages and disadvantages of each one. This discussion is followed by the explanation of the essential components of system dynamics models.
Finally, the article provides several applications from international relations
via developing models of arms races and spread of intrastate conflicts. 

Keywords

Quantitative methods, modeling, arms races, intrastate conflict

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